***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Stock market shakes it off after the elephant wins.

My oil is rebounding today... I averaged down slightly yesterday. Why not overexpose myself even more...

 

[cirrrocco]

anyone invested in tesla. afterhours up 5%

 

[cirrrocco]

What did you do roll some dice to come to that conclusion?

I made 8% in just three days. I am happy.

 

[Icecold]

Anybody investing in Russia? I might try to get into the Market Vector Russia ETF Trust (RSX) if it hits $20.

 

[Imp]

Ukrainian potash mine having problems, my not-Ukrainian potash stock pops.

Nothing like profiting off someone else's misfortune!

 

[JEDI]

Stock market shakes it off after the elephant wins.

My oil is rebounding today... I averaged down slightly yesterday. Why not overexpose myself even more...

w/oil so low, I might start investing in MLPs.
20% yield

after 5yrs, whatever you're holding will be pure profit

 

[Mermaidman]

Ho ho ho, look at that. Intel is crashing, 3 weeks after my crash call.

Big move today . . . probably close 52-wk high. Dividend hike, guidance raised.

 

[Imp]

...Urge to turn all of my CAD$ into US$ rising.

Turned a chunk a few months back and totally winning right now. But I am winning because of a matter I wasn't considering: oil prices tanking the petro-currency. My long play is the housing market.

 

[JTsyo]

Big move today . . . probably close 52-wk high. Dividend hike, guidance raised.

Their move to combine mobile and regular CPU seemed like that were trying to hide the mobile losses. But another possibility was brought up that they might stop with the Atom processors and move everything to Core which is more profitable.

 

[glenn1]

Whats a good, solid first oil company to add for long term portfolio?
Suncor, Shell, BP, Exxon, or Chevron?

Any would be fine - CVX is the long-time value pick of the bunch and typically lagged performance-wise. You could include MRO or VLO in there also, I own some of the later although it's more refiner than extraction company like the majors you listed.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Regarding oil ... wouldn't make it my first, but Prem Watsa just doubled his position in PWE. I'll be loading up in my ROth-iRA in the next few weeks.

 

[Imp]

Cashed out some potash. I get the feeling the Ukraine mine will be back online soon and tank things. Regardless, I only pulled half out -- hope I have the discipline to hold that remaining half for a while this time.

 

[JEDI]

hm.. heard on news radio that when there's a dem pres and repubs control both the house and senate, that the stock market rallies 20%+ each year for those 2 years.

selling all my bonds and tips, and switching to s+p500?

 

[AmdEmAll]

hm.. heard on news radio that when there's a dem pres and repubs control both the house and senate, that the stock market rallies 20%+ each year for those 2 years.

selling all my bonds and tips, and switching to s+p500?

So when congress does nothing the stock market rallies?

 

[Imp]

So when congress does nothing the stock market rallies?

The DOW or S&P did 30% in 2013? That was the year of the shutdown?

So, yep, looks like!

 

[Imp]

Cashed out some potash. I get the feeling the Ukraine mine will be back online soon and tank things. Regardless, I only pulled half out -- hope I have the discipline to hold that remaining half for a while this time.

Fffffffffffffffffff.... I may have been right! POS (that's not a ticker) down more than 5% today. Reason was probably due to talk of the Ukraine mine getting repaired.

Only cashed out half my position Friday to hedge my bets. Oh well.

 

[JEDI]

oil fell below $70/barrel today.

majority of USA shale oil companies no longer profitable.
heck, something like 10% of them were no longer profitable when it was $80/barrel.

can Saudi bankrupt the US's shale oil business?

how low can it go?
or time load up on MLP's now?

 

[monkeydelmagico]

can Saudi bankrupt the US's shale oil business?

I suspect this is only one facet of the larger picture. At the very least there are some sizeable drilling rights and equipment consolidation about to occur. The weak hands at the table are going to fold in short order.

 

[Imp]

This is just stupid. I am hemorrhaging money right now, but none of it's showing up in my total balance because when my oil stock (ya, just one, I totally gambled and overexposed) tanks, so does the CAD-US conversion.

I want to keep averaging down my oil sands position -- classic idiot mistake for a loser position. Company's been around since the '70s, so it's probably not going bankrupt.

Seriously, how low can oil go? It hit mid-$30 in 2009, when the world was going to end. Is the world ending?

 

[JEDI]

This is just stupid. I am hemorrhaging money right now, but none of it's showing up in my total balance because when my oil stock (ya, just one, I totally gambled and overexposed) tanks, so does the CAD-US conversion.

I want to keep averaging down my oil sands position -- classic idiot mistake for a loser position. Company's been around since the '70s, so it's probably not going bankrupt.

Seriously, how low can oil go? It hit mid-$30 in 2009, when the world was going to end. Is the world ending?

today, the Saudi's launched another salvo.

apparently they want to bankrupt US shale oil companies AT ANY PRICE:
http://money.cnn.com/2014/11/28/investing/opec-oil-price-us-shale/index.html

so yeah they've dug in their heals.

so to answer your question how low?
at what price will 1) a vast majority of shale companies go bankrupt?
or
2) regular US oil producers blink and cut back on production to raise oil prices?


keep dollar avging down.
one of those 2 choices will happen by 2016. then bam, oil will sky rocket.

as for me, I have no skin in this game (PHEW on being tapped out and not wanting to buy MLP's on margin 2months ago!).
will wait a little while longer to buy the MLPs.

edit:
also PHEW on not buying RSX (Russia index).
these low oil prices are going to hurt Russia's econ alot.

hm.. time to short emerging markets?
Venezuela's and Brazil's econ will be killed since their econ relies even more heavily on oil exports than Russia.
(and brazil spent/wasted a boatload of $ they didn't have on the FIFA cup and Olympic game stadiums/infrastructure.)

 

[Imp]

Breakeven for shale oil:
http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-breakeven-oil-production-prices-2014-11

All over the road, but it doesn't look like most projects would be happy below $70. The funny is that as oil gets cheaper, more people buy SUVs and F-150s, more oil burned, no reason to invest in alternative energies. Self-correcting problem... Just a matter of how long.

I'll probably average a bit more down in a few weeks to see if it will level out a bit -- the last time it leveled out, it fell again. Oh well, as long as the dividend keeps paying.

 

[JTsyo]

Breakeven for shale oil:
http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-breakeven-oil-production-prices-2014-11

All over the road, but it doesn't look like most projects would be happy below $70. The funny is that as oil gets cheaper, more people buy SUVs and F-150s, more oil burned, no reason to invest in alternative energies. Self-correcting problem... Just a matter of how long.

I'll probably average a bit more down in a few weeks to see if it will level out a bit -- the last time it leveled out, it fell again. Oh well, as long as the dividend keeps paying.

Don't count on that. Some of the peripherals like ocean drillers are cutting dividends.

Credit stress ahead: That scrutiny forced SeaDrill Limited (SDRL) to suspend its dividend earlier this week, causing the offshore drilling contractor's stock to plummet 23%.

Essner "absolutely" expects more drillers and oil servicing companies to cut or even suspend dividends. Bespoke's baseline scenario calls for dividend suspensions and bond defaults among more "marginal" named producers.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Stock market shakes it off after the elephant wins.

My oil is rebounding today... I averaged down slightly yesterday. Why not overexpose myself even more...

Are you actually trading Oil futures or options?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3uSTOHa4Im4

 

[Hugo Drax]

I made 8% in just three days. I am happy.

8% on what?

10 dollars?
100 dollars?
1,000 dollars?
10,000 dollars?
100,000 dollars?
1,000,000 dollars?

 

[Hugo Drax]

hm.. heard on news radio that when there's a dem pres and repubs control both the house and senate, that the stock market rallies 20%+ each year for those 2 years.

selling all my bonds and tips, and switching to s+p500?

you should have been loading up when SPY was trading in the double digits.