***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[KB]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/12/21/us-oil-prices-saudi-idUSKBN0JZ05W20141221

Saudi Arabia has now repeatedly said they won't reduce output. Russia has also said the same things. No one but the U.S. has announced cuts and those cuts are solely in future exploration capex. Pumping at current wells will continue and possibly increase. I am now more inclined to believe oil prices will fall again maybe to 50. This will definitely be a buying opportunity but I am not sure when.

 

[JEDI]

dno is short oil.
dto is double short.

right now dno up 4%.
dto up only 5.4%?!

if its double short, shouldnt dto be up 8%?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Oil prices will go up down or sideways I the short term. In the long term, they will go up.

 

[Imp]

I think there's a fund that's triple short oil...

 

[KB]

dno is short oil.
dto is double short.

right now dno up 4%.
dto up only 5.4%?!

if its double short, shouldnt dto be up 8%?

You would think so, but remember for ever seller there must be a buyer. If buyers aren't buying at 8% higher then the fund won't sell for 8% higher.

A double short fund means that the NET Asset Value of the shorts increases twice the rate of the single short fund. But ETFs rarely trade at exactly NAV. They usually have a premium to NAV of -.5 to .5%, but can differ as high as -3% to 3%.

There are many complications for valuing ETFs. Here's an example.
http://www.etftrends.com/2013/07/vanguard-etf-premiums-discounts-and-volatility/

Take a look at:
http://www.etf.com/DNO

and you can see the difference between DNO and DNO NAV.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold GDP at a loss. Phuey on oil!

Bought 500 shares of DRYS $1.19

 

[brianmanahan]

bought VTSAX and VTIAX in taxable today

all time highs but im buying for the 2040's, so whatev

 

[KB]

Sold GDP at a loss. Phuey on oil!

Bought 500 shares of DRYS $1.19

What's your bull case on DRYS? Do you think dry bulk cargos rates are on the rise? Drys has had a downward trajectory since 2008 and has been issuing new shares at lower and lower prices. It's possible lower fuel costs will help their bottom line, but it also hurts their drill rig company ORIG. Would be interested what you see as a catalyst for growth.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Tried day trading for the first time this week and made over $200 usd. I know it's not likely I or most individual traders can do that on a mostly consistent basis but I'm curious about day trading just to try it. Institutional traders can make a hell of a lot more of course regularly for the most part on a yearly basis. But I'm no institutional trader.

I traded in ONVO, CCXI and ODP (Organovo, Chemo Centryx, and Office Depot) in the NYSE and NASDAQ. My buys were no more than 6k per trade. Made the $200 in 4 day trades during the week selling after a few minutes or a few hours.

200 dollars a day day trading, yeah that is super easy anyone can make 200 bucks a day day trading.

All you have to do is just buy at the low and sell at the high according tho the chart.

 

[JEDI]

Sold GDP at a loss. Phuey on oil!

Bought 500 shares of DRYS $1.19

why the hell is drys going up?! bdi has dropped 30% this month.
and their subsidiary is an oil drilling company. oil is going DOWN.

yet drys went up 20% today?!
whats going on?

 

[FelixDeCat]

What's your bull case on DRYS? Do you think dry bulk cargos rates are on the rise? Drys has had a downward trajectory since 2008 and has been issuing new shares at lower and lower prices. It's possible lower fuel costs will help their bottom line, but it also hurts their drill rig company ORIG. Would be interested what you see as a catalyst for growth.

why the hell is drys going up?! bdi has dropped 30% this month.
and their subsidiary is an oil drilling company. oil is going DOWN.

yet drys went up 20% today?!
whats going on?

The trend is your friend. :sneaky:

I think the shale producers fold faster than deep sea, which is what DRYS services. Also, lower oil could improve the world economy which means, you guessed it - more shipping!

But who knows.

 

[Hugo Drax]

The trend is your friend. :sneaky:

I think the shale producers fold faster than deep sea, which is what DRYS services. Also, lower oil could improve the world economy which means, you guessed it - more shipping!

But who knows.

Its down today. so whats the deal? SPY up 0.30% VS DRYS -2.89%

 

[JEDI]

oil might drop to $33/barrel if natural gas is any indicator:
$33 Barrel

 

[brianmanahan]

traded some total US market in my IRA for more US small cap value, US REITs and international REITs. gotta balance that asset allocation.

 

[Imp]

Sitting tight. Going to be boring until after January 1.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Its down today. so whats the deal? SPY up 0.30% VS DRYS -2.89%

Todays close:

DRYS $1.24, up $0.03(2.48%)

Sold the 500 shares at 1.30 and went long 13 June 2015 $1 calls for 50 cents.

Im hoping it goes over $2.00 by then for a clean DOUBLE.

 

[JEDI]

"Investors were looking ahead to official U.S. oil inventory data to be released by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA) later on Wednesday.

American Petroleum Institute data released Tuesday showed U.S. crude stocks rose by 5.4 million barrels last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories were forecast to have fallen by 2.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 19, according to analysts polled by Reuters. "


Woah.. they got that forecast WRONG! oil bloodbath on Weds?

and again, why is Drys going up?! everything about them is trending negative (BDI + oil prices)

 

[Imp]

December 24 trading closes at 1:00 pm, no? The 26th is a joke too. New Years next Thursday... crashy crashy next next Monday?

 

[FelixDeCat]

"
Woah.. they got that forecast WRONG! oil bloodbath on Weds?

and again, why is Drys going up?! everything about them is trending negative (BDI + oil prices)

Everyone is waiting on $40 oil. The blood bath has mostly already occurred. The only thing left to happen will be the massive defaults by shale drillers, which could (but likely wont) start to happen in 1Q15. I think lenders will modify terms and give them time to work out deals to avoid default.

I told you why I think DRYS is going up, if you think otherwise look elsewhere for an answer or and/or buy puts. It closed above the 50 DMA, so it may hold or continue momentum.

 

[FelixDeCat]

December 24 trading closes at 1:00 pm, no? The 26th is a joke too. New Years next Thursday... crashy crashy next next Monday?

Yes, both are likely up days. Next up is the "January effect" which will likely include a small pull back as traders love faux drama.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Todays close:

DRYS $1.24, up $0.03(2.48%)

Sold the 500 shares at 1.30 and went long 13 June 2015 $1 calls for 50 cents.

Im hoping it goes over $2.00 by then for a clean DOUBLE.

how many contracts?

 

[FelixDeCat]

how many contracts?

13 contracts or 1300 shares to the layman

 

[Imp]

So, apparently, markets were open today. Woosh.

 

[brianmanahan]

So, apparently, markets were open today. Woosh.

yeah, no "boxing" day here!

 

[JEDI]

oil has fallen below support levels.
53.xx territory!