***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

JNJ looks like a rock. That will do. Thanks for the input.

I wouldn't just buy one stock.
look at Sears. 20yrs ago, who would have thought Sears would be near bankruptcy right now?

also, you're setting the wrong example for your son. you're gambling on 1 stock.
index funds with low ER is the better way to go.
S&P 500 at fidelity/vanguard is like $500 min?

oh.. and you can buy a piece of brk with just $800??

 

[JTsyo]

I wouldn't just buy one stock.
look at Sears. 20yrs ago, who would have thought Sears would be near bankruptcy right now?

also, you're setting the wrong example for your son. you're gambling on 1 stock.
index funds with low ER is the better way to go.
S&P 500 at fidelity/vanguard is like $500 min?

oh.. and you can buy a piece of brk with just $800??

It could be a good lesson in why you diversify. "See son, I put $800 in one stock and now you have $400. Had I put it into something that followed the market, it would have been $1400."

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

FWIW: There are few stocks I would buy as my only holding and be able to sleep well for 20 years. BRK is a conglomerate with many companies under their name, so they are diversified by nature. FFH is similar but has fewer companies. JNJ is the only company that is not a conglomerate that I would consider, but it does atleast provide a dividend..

 

[bookem dano]

FWIW: There are few stocks I would buy as my only holding and be able to sleep well for 20 years. BRK is a conglomerate with many companies under their name, so they are diversified by nature. FFH is similar but has fewer companies. JNJ is the only company that is not a conglomerate that I would consider, but it does atleast provide a dividend..

JNJ does have some diversification...in the healthcare sector just not cross sectors. They have a lot more individual products and services than a typical singular company. They develop drugs(Rx and OTC), medical devices and consumer products from shampoo to artificial sugar.

I don't think a JNJ to Sears is a good comparison because I don't think they have much diversification in their own sector.

 

[GunsMadeAmericaFree]

FWIW: There are few stocks I would buy as my only holding and be able to sleep well for 20 years. BRK is a conglomerate with many companies under their name, so they are diversified by nature. FFH is similar but has fewer companies. JNJ is the only company that is not a conglomerate that I would consider, but it does atleast provide a dividend..

You're not kidding. My Grandparents and parents told me to do a lot of research, then buy companies that make things you use, and hold them for decades.

Instead, now I review the holdings monthly to see if any of them would no longer be considered value stocks. I typically buy out of favor stocks, or stocks that have gone down at least 20% on bad news. I research the companies and figure out what I think would be a fair medium term recovery, then sell when it reaches that price point.

Currently I'm diversified into about 5 stocks:
KOG
AIG
AAL
BAC
LGF

I've also been looking at S for quite a while......

 

[OutHouse]

wow what happened with Rite-aid? it was doing really good, had good reports like making the fortune 500 again and boom! today day the stock drops 75 cents and still going.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I think Sprint is an interesting opportunity. I have yet to research it though.

If you like out of favor, go look at oil and gas companies. I own XCO and SD.

If you want a turn around (maybe restructuring is a better word) everyone is ignoring, go look up ZINC. Mohnish Pabrai bought it and 4 months later I figured out why and learned something I didn't know about Pabrai. Pabrai is an expert in the metals industry. It's in his circle of competence. Also, ZINC has a new plant that makes it the most efficient company in it's field. When a recession hits, the competition will shut down and/or ZNIC will acquire them at bargain basement prices. Either way, the efficiency should lead to increased market share over time. Seems like a gem where Wall Street is doing their typical backward looking activities and not realizing the changes that are in place going forward. Kinda like USG in 2009. They were expanding their reach during the recession as the stock tanked. It's sometimes obvious that good deals exist.

The stocks above all represent value opportunities.

 

[JTsyo]

wow what happened with Rite-aid? it was doing really good, had good reports like making the fortune 500 again and boom! today day the stock drops 75 cents and still going.

Their forward looking projections for the year isn't as good as previously estimated. Seems they didn't get a drop in drug prices they were expecting.

 

[JEDI]

You are confusing Market Cap with Book value.
Market cap is total # of shares * share price = ~1.25 billion.
Book Value is value of company + investments - liabilities
DRYS is selling at half its book value.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=DRYS+Key+Statistics

Why did Drys jump big today?

 

[Kntx]

Why did Drys jump big today?

Why on Earth is DRYS talked about on every investing message board? Everywhere I go DRYS, DRYS, DRYS.

It's a 1.5B company that has returned less than 0 over the last 5 years in a bull market. Do some reading and you find out it has a non-shareholder friendly management and ownership structure. Yet still talked about all over the place. Is there some misplaced hope it will reach $100 again? Is it just a favorite trading stock?

 

[JEDI]

nm

 

[Icecold]

Any thoughts on MRO ?

 

[KB]

Any thoughts on MRO ?

If you are looking at MRO you might want to get multiple opinions on the stock. A site like seekingalpha.com is good at giving you multiple viewpoints; however, beware that they may all be wrong.

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MRO?s=mro

Take alook at their Key Statistics

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=MRO+Key+Statistics

and financials

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=MRO


Based on a cursory glance, its looks to be a good company to own. They are doing things in a shareholder friendly way, including buying back shares and raising dividends. They have plenty of cash on hand and their debt is maintainable. I would buy the company, except its at a recent high point and I usually like to get stocks cheap.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Dryships is a 2-3x gain if they can turn FCF positive. The financial sheets look like hell though. A lot of debt. Shareholder dilution. etc ....

Some talk here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/orig-ocean-rig-udw/

 

[sm625]

2014-05-15      29.4 chg   10.7, score:   40.1 graph:   61.8 BUYIF
2014-05-16      54.8 chg   25.4, score:   80.2 graph:   73.5 BUY
2014-05-19      46.9 chg   -7.9, score:   39.1 graph:   74.9 BUY
2014-05-20      36.8 chg  -10.1, score:   26.7 graph:   73.9 BUY
2014-05-21      37.1 chg    0.3, score:   37.5 graph:   76.1 BUY
2014-05-22      25.6 chg  -11.5, score:   14.1 graph:   74.4 BUY
2014-05-23      -1.2 chg  -26.8, score:  -28.0 graph:   65.6 (sell in 37.9 days)
2014-05-27      14.6 chg   15.7, score:   30.3 graph:   71.0 (sell in 38.2 days)
2014-05-28     -11.6 chg  -26.2, score:  -37.9 graph:   60.6 (sell in 35.6 days)
2014-05-29      -7.2 chg    4.4, score:   -2.8 graph:   61.3 (sell in 34.5 days)
2014-05-30      -1.4 chg    5.8, score:    4.4 graph:   63.2 (sell in 33.6 days)
2014-06-02      -8.9 chg   -7.5, score:  -16.4 graph:   59.9 (sell in 32.0 days)
2014-06-03     -28.0 chg  -19.1, score:  -47.1 graph:   51.6 (sell in 29.0 days)
2014-06-04     -43.7 chg  -15.7, score:  -59.3 graph:   44.1 (sell in 22.5 days)
2014-06-05     -14.8 chg   28.8, score:   14.0 graph:   53.1 (sell in 18.1 days)
2014-06-06     -20.3 chg   -5.5, score:  -25.8 graph:   49.1 (sell in 11.0 days)
2014-06-09     -28.0 chg   -7.7, score:  -35.7 graph:   43.2 (sell in 2.6 days)
2014-06-10     -27.0 chg    1.0, score:  -26.0 graph:   40.2 SELL
2014-06-11     -47.5 chg  -20.5, score:  -68.0 graph:   31.0

My indicator generated its automated sell signal yesterday.

 

[debian0001]

Anyone gonna jump on AAPL now that they reversed the stock?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Anyone gonna jump on AAPL now that they reversed the stock?

You don't own any more or less of the company just because you can now own 10 out of 1000 total shares when you used to be able to own 1 out of 100 total shares.

And Apple is resting on it's laurels. They don't innovate anymore. Post Steve Jobs, the company will again fall apart.

 

[Michael]

My current strategy to increase returns on my portfolio is selling puts. I have started picking 10 well rated companies and selling out of the money puts (usually right near the strike price).

Based in the research I have done and the average time value, I should be able to make an extra $200K a year (I have about $1.5M committed stock value at any one time).

I use the S&P Platinum portfolio to select the stocks and use the ones with 5 ratings in both systems.

Michael

Ps - heavy travel has kept me from updating the portfolio of the 10 stocks from the Barron's article, but I will try and. Update this weekend.

 

[Hacp]

Anyone gonna jump on AAPL now that they reversed the stock?

It might. A lower price means it is easier for high frequency traders to gamble with the stock. They buy it in lots of 100.

 

[JTsyo]

Dryships is a 2-3x gain if they can turn FCF positive. The financial sheets look like hell though. A lot of debt. Shareholder dilution. etc ....

Some talk here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/orig-ocean-rig-udw/

I had looked at DRYS and what turned me off DRYS was their CEO, seemed like a scumbag who using DRYS to enrich his other holdings.

 

[KB]

Anyone gonna jump on AAPL now that they reversed the stock?

Its better to buy before the split because it usually then goes up a bit after. People suddenly see the price so low, they think its a good deal even though earnings per share and dividends are also split by the same amount.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

Threw a small amount at KDUS today. $1.60. It's a bit of a gamble but I like what little information is available about the restructuring and who the majority shareholder is. The risk is that I get bought out by the majority shareholder for much less than what I paid The upside though, could be interesting.

 

[JEDI]

Threw a small amount at KDUS today. $1.60. It's a bit of a gamble but I like what little information is available about the restructuring and who the majority shareholder is. The risk is that I get bought out by the majority shareholder for much less than what I paid The upside though, could be interesting.

how can u get bought out by the majority shareholder for less than what you paid for it?

 

[Hugo Drax]

The fact that AAPL split the stock means they are no longer interested in long term planning.

They are now interested in quarterly planning even if it means it is at the expense of the longterm view and health of the company.

 

[PimpJuice]

You don't own any more or less of the company just because you can now own 10 out of 1000 total shares when you used to be able to own 1 out of 100 total shares.

And Apple is resting on it's laurels. They don't innovate anymore. Post Steve Jobs, the company will again fall apart.

Maybe, but how come you didn't see the downfall of blackberry in the past 2.5 years that you've been pimping it here? You're track record is pretty poor to be making predictions.