***Official*** 2014 Stock Market Thread

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Sep 29, 2004
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how can u get bought out by the majority shareholder for less than what you paid for it?

Majority owner makes offer for less than I paid for the stock. Shareholders vote (majority shareholder has something like 60% of stock) with a good chance of it going through. I am forced to sell at dictated price as the company is bought out.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hostiletakeover.asp

Also, the CEO works for the majority shareholder.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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Maybe, but how come you didn't see the downfall of blackberry in the past 2.5 years that you've been pimping it here? You're track record is pretty poor to be making predictions.

Tell me that a year from now .... yawn. Basing your conclusions on 2.5 years of performance is pretty sad. I've had stocks drop 90% to just watch them recover and turn a profit. Ya, stock is down a whopping 20-30% since I started pimping. If 10% of one's portfolio it had a massive 2-3% impact to the downside.

Pretty poor. JNJ going from $60 to $110 in 3 years. I doubled my money in SD over a year(as did atleast one other person ion this forum). I sold. It dropped again and I bought back. Like I have said in the past.

PS: Downfall of Blackberry. One of us is clearly not following the company and guess what. It's not me. The turnaround is happening in front of everyone's eyes but they are to blind to see it. HINT: The company does more than phones .....

FWIW: I finally dollar cost averaged on BBRY in the $7s a few months ago. So, my cost basis is somewhere in the high $8s. Ya, I've gotten killed. Down something like 10%.
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
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Majority owner makes offer for less than I paid for the stock. Shareholders vote (majority shareholder has something like 60% of stock) with a good chance of it going through. I am forced to sell at dictated price as the company is bought out.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hostiletakeover.asp

Also, the CEO works for the majority shareholder.

so the majority owner can say $0.01 and since he owns 50.1%+, it's goes thru?
sounds like lawsuits waiting to happen
 

Mermaidman

Diamond Member
Sep 4, 2003
7,987
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I hope the afterhours gain for INTC holds up. What a great dividend AND growth stock! :awe:
 
Sep 29, 2004
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so the majority owner can say $0.01 and since he owns 50.1%+, it's goes thru?
sounds like lawsuits waiting to happen

I don't think it could be that bad. The offer should be at current quote or higher. So if the stock drops 10%, I could be forced to take that loss instead of waiting for the share price to recover. It is more of a case that if the majority shareholder wants to take it private, there is not much that can be done to stop it.

The link to investipedia tells you about things that can be done to prevent this.

=========

I think what this company is doing is interesting. Remember all the remodelers pre housing bubble that were making a killing then probably became bag holders? This company sounds like it is doing exactly that in Florida. Watching TV shows ("documentaries") on the topic, it can be very lucrative. Some people on these shows are morons (Flipping Vegas) but there was one in Texas and boy, did that guy run a tight ship.

Flip a house over 2-6 months, take the 20% profit and reinvest. It's a compounding machine. The thing is, a CEO with excellent financial understanding that can weather the downturns in the industry will eat into the competitors markets as the weak go under are weeded out. Remember, each recession will cause some of the competition to go under if you are the best in the game.

The big issue is that this model can easily be copied. But in the beginning, there should be plenty of room for growth.

I think I read that it is being structured as a REIT. I hope they also keep some properties as rentals to help weather downturns with less volatility.

Anyways, it is a somewhat speculative investment. And with such a small market cap that it is WAY under the radar of most.

Ramblings:
It's not like AMD where everyone buying and selling has the same knowledge base. Competitive advantages are not just for the managements of Target and Wal-Mart to understand. People forget that investors need a competitive advantage against other investors. No investor in AMD has such an advantage. But now I am talking about investing on a site not built for it so I'll just stop. But one last thing. Mispricing often occur in turnarounds these days. The thing that is amazing is that no one seems to know that companies are publicly announcing things are vastly important and due to this, mispricings can occur on occasion. RFP and ZINC are two screaming examples of this. Why does no one notice? Over-reliance on screeners and financial metrics. The failure is that those devices only tell the past. Read articles on BBRY. Every one of them focuses on handsets. Even here, handsets. Ya, let's say they shut down that piece of the business entirely. Then what? I love having a competitive advantage against my competition.

FWIW: JNJ was a good deal for years before it's recent near 100% run up. That was easily found via screener.

This is a good talk. It's helping re-organize my thoughts. Might have to turn it into an article (I get paid to write for value investing sites on occasion).
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
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Why on Earth is DRYS talked about on every investing message board? Everywhere I go DRYS, DRYS, DRYS.

It's a 1.5B company that has returned less than 0 over the last 5 years in a bull market. Do some reading and you find out it has a non-shareholder friendly management and ownership structure. Yet still talked about all over the place. Is there some misplaced hope it will reach $100 again? Is it just a favorite trading stock?

wow.. shipping rates are plummeting, yet Drys is skyrocketing?!

both Drys and it's main competitor Diane Shipping say rates will pick up by 3rd + 4th quarters of this year.
so people are buying on that expectation? so I should sell in August when the actual news comes in?
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
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Sold my SBUX, looking for the next undervalued pick

does sbux still include a $5 giftcard "shareholder edition" with their annual shareholder packet?

and sbux returned 33%/yr avg since 2007
 
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brandonb

Diamond Member
Oct 17, 2006
3,731
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My adventures over the last month:

After WWE had its 33% stock drop. I waited and watched. I noticed that the bottom was hit as I waited awhile for everything to stabilize. So I bought into it. It formed a shoulder in the standard Head and Shoulders pattern. I waited it out. Then it shot up and formed the head. I exited my position for a 10% gain. It's now falling out of the head, and ready to form the 2nd shoulder.

During this time, I put my money into ALU... As it's been averaging between 3.80 and 4.00 for a few months, and it's in the 3.50's with no change in news. I can easily see a bounce/gap fill back to 3.80 or to 4.00 for a 10% gain. So I'm waiting this one out and hopefully it will pop in time for me to hit the shoulder on WWE again.

Been keeping an eye on WLT as that has been popping regularly, but with the debt to equity ratio so high for this company I've been hesitant to put money into it, but its probably paid off for many investors in the very short term.

Up $2000 so far this year on $15,000 investment. (only started trading again in March, so 3 months) I'm not a big fish, just trying to be a smart fish in the sea.
 
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Kntx

Platinum Member
Dec 11, 2000
2,270
0
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wow.. shipping rates are plummeting, yet Drys is skyrocketing?!

both Drys and it's main competitor Diane Shipping say rates will pick up by 3rd + 4th quarters of this year.
so people are buying on that expectation? so I should sell in August when the actual news comes in?

It's not just now. For years DRYS has been a favorite topic on investing boards. I don't get it.
 

brandonb

Diamond Member
Oct 17, 2006
3,731
2
0
ALU finally popped. Up 5% today. Unfortunately it came a bit late and I missed the WWE shoulder. WWE is already up there. So my strategy didn't pay off exactly. So I put a stop in on ALU and I'll be selling the second it drops again. (Only put the stock 2 cents lower than the stock price)... Also invested in SLV a month ago, and that is up 7%.

Thinking that if my ALU sells, I will invest in YHOO and gamble on a good ER, then transfer any gains there directly to AMD for their ER. The last quarter ERs both of those stocks gained 5-10% after ER. I hit YHOO's ER gain last time around, but didn't sell and invest into AMD for its ER. But may do that this time around. Still pondering.

Wellstrade is telling me I'm up 15% so far this quarter.
 

brandonb

Diamond Member
Oct 17, 2006
3,731
2
0
BBRY on a tear this month.

Up from $7.50 to $10.50.

Boy, do I feel dumb.

That's such a risky move though. Sure, the gains would have been high, but the risk is also very high. I wouldn't have done it. The same reason why I haven't invested in WLT even though its been making huge gains as well.
 
Sep 29, 2004
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That's such a risky move though. Sure, the gains would have been high, but the risk is also very high. I wouldn't have done it. The same reason why I haven't invested in WLT even though its been making huge gains as well.

It's a stock that demands research. I'll admit that much. I've been following it for years now so it is easier for me to be comfortable knowing what is going on with the company. It's also different now that Chen is in control. For someone that knows the company well and understands the financial statements, risky is word I wouldn't use. I'm reading "The Outsiders" by William N. Thorndike. It's about CEOs that didn't follow the trend of their market/segment and in turn provided 20% shareholder returns for over 20 years. But what is interesting is what these CEOs focused on. Chen exhibits some of the key characteristics of the CEOs in this book and it's not Chens first time with a turn around.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Outsiders-.../dp/1422162672

I'd use the word risky for Apple stock based on everything I know about it even though my knowledge there is limited. But I do see that smart decisions at Apple died when Steve Jobs died. They need a new CEO. They bought Beats audio of all things. Beats is quite the impressive brand but sustainably so? The purchase of Beats is pretty much solidification of what I think about Apple as an investment.

---------------- MISC info
Here's another turnaround KDUS I mentioned a few weeks ago:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...q=OTCBB:KDUS&ntsp=1&ei=lJC0U6jFKseIqwHG4IDICQ

I've been having a hell of a little run here over the past few weeks. I have Iraq bringing up oil stocks. My canadian paper company is doing well. My Zinc refiner is killing it. And people are starting to see BBRY for what it actually is. I guess my reputation as an investor is destroyed here though.
 
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JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
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to be fair, the dow is at record highs.

any monkey throwing darts at stock listings can make $.

wait... bbry = blackberry? it's $10/share?
wasnt it like a penny stock in bankrucpy?!
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
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BBRY is NASDAQ listing, BB is TSX listing (changed from RIM and RIMM?).

They've been hovering between $7-$11, IIRC, for the last while. Not touching it with a 10 yard pole.
 
Sep 29, 2004
18,665
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to be fair, the dow is at record highs.

any monkey throwing darts at stock listings can make $.

wait... bbry = blackberry? it's $10/share?
wasnt it like a penny stock in bankrucpy?!

People that can't read balance sheets thought it was in bankruptcy. it was never a penny stock and never came close. Actually, it would have been hard to before they took on debt. Prior to their decision to add debt to the balance sheet, they had no debt and $4-$5 in cash per share.

The Dow is up 1.38% in the past month. And 2.43% in the past 3 months. 3.65% in the past 6 months. And 13.8% in the past 12 months. ya, monkey throwing darts can make cash, technically. Value investors can do better though.

Over half my holdings are here:
https://www.google.com/finance?chdn...=NASDAQ:BBRY&ntsp=1&ei=3tG0U6GKB8quqAH4jYHACw

I'm green on RFP ... not sure when I bought it exactly. I must be a smart monkey.
 

squarecut1

Platinum Member
Nov 1, 2013
2,230
5
46
Colombians remember Andrés Escobar who was killed exactly 20 years ago. His own goal led to Colombia's exit from the 94 WC. It is widely believed he was murdered by the cartel bosses who had bet heavily on Colombia. A tragic tale.

I hope Colombia can do something special against Brazil.

Ooops..sorry, wrong thread!
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
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Side note: Dow breaks 17,000....(17,042 currently). Does it make another run from here (employment numbers looked better than expected).

Thoughts?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
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Buying up mucho US denaro (effing 1.5% forex commission)...

RE: Canada over-inflated housing market
 

makken

Golden Member
Aug 28, 2004
1,476
0
71
Sold my INTC calls today before close for 1130% profit
Then I saw the ER and AH D:
 

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
Update on the Barron's article shares I bought. Below are the raw prices, I am going to crunch numbers and include reinvested dividends. Simon spun off WPG, so the 50 shares I received in that need to be added back to the SPG returns. So far my biggest percentage winner is American Airlines. I bought very close to $15K per stock.

Barrick Gold 16.05 / 18.33
Canadian Natural Resources 32.63 / 44.13
Citigroup 52.05 / 49.29
Deere 87.32 / 88.56
General Motors 40.85 / 37.58
Intel 24.95 / 31.71
MetLife 51.33 / 56.14
Nestlé 73.72 / 76.69
Simon Properties 152.47 / 170.27**
US Airways Group (AAL) 25.2 / 43.7
**WPG 0/19.08 (50 shares)

I will be resetting my selling Puts portfolio this Friday (last day of trading). I will try and explain how I pick the stocks to sell puts against.

Michael
 
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