Official 2015 Fantasy Football Discussion Thread

[SP33Demon]

Let's kick it off a month early this year! Who's overrated/underrated on ADP? What are your 2015 predictions? Did you win it all last year (like me)?

An interesting prediction on how Odell Beckham Jr won't continue his dominance from last year. Compared to say, Gronk being still available, I'd take a risk on Gronk over ODB as a first pick, especially with ODB's reduced volume now that Cruz is back in the slot.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/nfl/55299/71/adp-first-look-overvalued

1. Odell Beckham, ADP 7.65
I think Odell Beckham’s statistics will regress as an NFL sophomore. Blasphemy, you say! Didn’t I see this catch, and this one, and this record and these?!? I did. That doesn’t mean he’ll do it again.

A) Opportunity: The first two games of Beckham’s NFL career were also the only two games he played with a healthy Victor Cruz. In those, Beckham totaled six catches for 72 yards and one touchdown. It took Cruz’s season-ending patellar tear for the ignition to get lit. By that time, the Giants’ running game was already completely inept thanks to a broken down Rashad Jennings and a painfully overrated Andre Williams. The offense had no choice but to pass, and Eli Manning had no choice but to funnel OBJ with massive volume. Cruz wasn’t there, Rueben Randle was doing his knucklehead things and Williams was a Alfred Morris-esque zero in the pass game.

This year, the offense is stacked. Jennings returns healthy, premier passing back Shane Vereen is on board and Cruz is reportedly on track for Week 1. The offense will still feature Beckham heavily, but the 12.7 targets per game he saw over the final nine weeks isn’t happening again.

B) Sophomore regression: Beckham’s 2014 season was an outlier, even by outlier standards. He became the first wide receiver in NFL history to go over 1,000 yards after missing the first four games of a season. His seven 100-yard games were the most by a rookie since 1960. He had at least 90 yards or a touchdown in each of his final nine games.

We’ve seen standout rookie receivers that blew up in Year 1 and therefore “couldn’t miss” in Year 2 struggle before. Over the 19 seasons between 1995 and 2013, eight rookie wideouts went over 1,000 yards. Only three got to 1,000 yards in their second year: Randy Moss, Marques Colston, A.J. Green. The other five regressed, badly burning owners who bet a premium pick on a progression: Keenan Allen, Michael Clayton, Anquan Boldin, Terry Glenn, Joey Galloway.

C) Sample size: It was a perfect storm for Beckham in terms of opportunity, matchups, game flow and efficiency last year. For 12 games, he was the best wide receiver in the league and one of the best we’ve ever seen. But 12 games isn’t enough for me to take him at 7.65, ahead of Julio Jones, Dez Bryant and Demaryius Thomas. Especially when we can get Calvin Johnson at 15.8, Jordy Nelson at 18.5 and A.J. Green at 18.9. Are we sure Beckham is truly an all-time great and not just a really good player that ran hot for three months? Can he keep making catches like this and this consistently? I don’t think we have a definitive answer on that yet.

Guys I’d rather have in same range: Julio Jones 10.12, Rob Gronkowski 5.84, Dez Bryant 9.32

They are also predicting Forsett to have quite a dropoff now that Kubiak scheme is gone, but I think it'll be a boon for PPR to snag Forsett in round 3-5 (after all top 3 WR's are gobbled up). Trestman loved slinging the rock to Forte and that trend should continue, despite his insistence that they will stick with zone blocking. The Baltimore OLine was incredibly successful last year, and they should be able to continue that success, zone blocking or not. Non-PPR, yes Forsett is a risk but not sure I agree with the Melvin Gordon pick over him. TY, yes.

4. Justin Forsett 28.49
I’ve heard a lot of chatter about Adrian Peterson – inarguably one of the most uniquely dominant running backs ever -- being 30 years old this season. I haven’t heard much about Justin Forsett turning 30 in October. He also lost the head coach and scheme that finally turned him from career journeyman to feature back, as run-game guru Gary Kubiak left for Denver. So we have an old running back who was pegged as a fringe complementary piece by a fistful of staffs on a team that used a draft pick – albeit a fourth-rounder -- on a running back (Buck Allen). New playcaller Marc Trestman has a long history of targeting his backs extremely heavily in the pass game, but there’s reason to believe run-game efficiency will decline without Kubiak. Trestman can only try to mimic the zone-blocking scheme.

Guys I’d rather have in same range: T.Y. Hilton 29.13, Melvin Gordon 32.29

 

[Mayne]

if you guys actually do an actual pool for money. I'm in.

 

[glenn1]

if you guys actually do an actual pool for money. I'm in.

There's several, just keep your eyes peeled for the threads. I know the keeper league being run by TJ is looking for owners and at least two other leagues generally run here. Last year we also had daily fantasy contests for most of the weeks of the season.

OK, here's a conversation starter for the thread: which underperforming QB will have the best year in 2015? (A) RG3, (2) Colin Kaeapernick, (3) Geno Smith, (4)Andy Dalton, or (5) Johnny Manziel?

Bonus question: who will be the top fantasy scoring player at each position this year?

 

[SP33Demon]

There's several, just keep your eyes peeled for the threads. I know the keeper league being run by TJ is looking for owners and at least two other leagues generally run here. Last year we also had daily fantasy contests for most of the weeks of the season.

OK, here's a conversation starter for the thread: which underperforming QB will have the best year in 2015? (A) RG3, (2) Colin Kaeapernick, (3) Geno Smith, (4)Andy Dalton, or (5) Johnny Manziel?

Bonus question: who will be the top fantasy scoring player at each position this year?

Dalton would be my pick, he has the most potent offense and best ground game besides Cleveland (but Johnny won't even start). RG3 would be a distant second.

Top scoring players PPR:
TE: Gronk or Kelce, next tier Olson and Graham.
WR: Brown, Demaryius Thomas, Jordy. Next tier: Evans, Megatron, ODB
RB: Jamaal Charles, Lynch. Next tier: Murray, AP, Forsett
Defense: Miami and the Jets are looking good but too early to tell. Can't count Seattle or NE out either.
Kickers: Legatron

 

[slayer202]

I'm going anquan boldin #1

 

[chitwood]

I'm going anquan boldin #1

I mean, he's better than Calvin

 

[Imported]

There's several, just keep your eyes peeled for the threads. I know the keeper league being run by TJ is looking for owners and at least two other leagues generally run here. Last year we also had daily fantasy contests for most of the weeks of the season.

OK, here's a conversation starter for the thread: which underperforming QB will have the best year in 2015? (A) RG3, (2) Colin Kaeapernick, (3) Geno Smith, (4)Andy Dalton, or (5) Johnny Manziel?

Bonus question: who will be the top fantasy scoring player at each position this year?

Think the keeper league is dead.

For first question, I'm going Colin.

Second question:
QB - Luck
RB - Lacy
WR - Antonio Brown
TE - Gronk
D - Houston
K - That NE kicker

 

[SP33Demon]

I mean, he's better than Calvin

Calvin isn't even a top 10 pick anymore. Cry more... now go clean my FF trophy.

 

[chitwood]

Calvin isn't even a top 10 pick anymore. Cry more... now go clean my FF trophy.

I won my league last year too, asshole

Stop acting like you're some fantasy football genius because you spout PFF and rotoworld stats in these threads. Your comparisons of Boldin and Calvin last year were a laugh riot

edit: maybe that was eits I'm thinking of?

 

[Imported]

I won a league too damnit!

Also, hoping we get a good weekly Fanduel going on. Those were fun even if I lost like 90% of the time..

 

[KeithTalent]

I won a league too damnit!

Also, hoping we get a good weekly Fanduel going on. Those were fun even if I lost like 90% of the time..

I do enjoy the FanDuel. Good times.

KT

 

[SP33Demon]

I won my league last year too, asshole

Stop acting like you're some fantasy football genius because you spout PFF and rotoworld stats in these threads. Your comparisons of Boldin and Calvin last year were a laugh riot

edit: maybe that was eits I'm thinking of?

Maybe it was eits. I said boldin had a better yards per route than calvin which means he was more efficient but that wouldn't necessarily translate to fantasy points without volume. Which he obviously would never get in the anemic SF offense. Bottom line is that nobody who won any FF championship would most likely have had either receiver last year. On that note, I'd recommend not drafting anyone from SF this year, sucky teams that have nothing to play for are a fantasy trap. Toby Gerhart, Doug Martin, I don't care if they have talent, if their team sucks, steer clear. Latavius Murray could be another trap this year.

My league was a 14 man which is exponentially harder than a 12 man (+the #8 playoff seed). PFF owns you, it solidified my decision to get Big Ben before the breakout because it tracks Olines more accurately than all other sites. Not to mention steaming defense dominance in the 2nd half when trends become obvious (JJ WATT, yes please). Next, knocking Roto shows you don't know how to utilize their info, they are awesome. I drafted Jeremy Hill based off of Roto's rookie analysis which basically helped immensely. Not saying anymore than that to give away tricks of the trade.

 

[TheGardener]

Hard to leave Dez Bryant off of a list of the 1st tier wide receivers. That is assuming he reaches a contract agreement or accepts the franchise tag with the Cowboys. Talent wise he is arguably the best in the game.

 

[Reasonable Doubt]

Hard to leave Dez Bryant off of a list of the 1st tier wide receivers. That is assuming he reaches a contract agreement or accepts the franchise tag with the Cowboys. Talent wise he is arguably the best in the game.

July 15, 2015

Dez Bryant, Cowboys strike to five-year contract

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ez-bryant-cowboys-strike-to-fiveyear-contract

 

[SP33Demon]

Hard to leave Dez Bryant off of a list of the 1st tier wide receivers. That is assuming he reaches a contract agreement or accepts the franchise tag with the Cowboys. Talent wise he is arguably the best in the game.

No doubt, especially with Darren Hamstrung Mcfadden and underwear thief Randle as the lead Dallas backs. They may throw more since Demarco is gone.

 

[chitwood]

lets talk more about FF:

Anybody got opinions on the value of LeSean McCoy, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jonathan Stewart, Giovanni Bernard?

 

[SP33Demon]

lets talk more about FF:

Anybody got opinions on the value of LeSean McCoy, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Jonathan Stewart, Giovanni Bernard?

McCoy will probably have a worse season than last year with the Bills O-line, although he could get high volume and actually do something with it as a pseudo-bellcow (don't forget about FJax). I'm still steering clear - he fits one of those good players on not-so-good teams type. Low end RB2 for me.

Andre Johnson will undoubtedly have a bounce back year, he's probably a middle WR2. While age is an issue, he only missed one game last year and still had 85 receptions with absolute shit at QB. Early reports are that he and Luck are on the same page and it'd be a good bet that he will be Luck's top target. If Reggie Wayne had 106 receptions last year, AJ could also flirt with 100 catches if he stays healthy.

Brandon Marshall, a good receiver on a bad team. I'm steering clear because of the QB, he and Decker are a crapshoot. We're talking about a 31-yr-old guy who is ready to retire today ("if I'm cut today, I'll retire tomorrow") and was banged up a lot last year which ruined fantasy hopes. Then again, he's playing in a new offense and is buddy buddy with the QB. He's too much of a question mark for me to draft, I'd say high end WR3.

JStew should get more than 200 carries this year, even if Cam scrambles more. I'm not big on him because of his injury history and the fact that Tolbert/Cam will poach TDs, but his talent is undeniable. He's much like a Ryan Mathews, huge talent but not exactly durable. Ok, maybe it's not fair to compare him to Mathews (lol) but he's been injury prone his entire career missing 20 games in the last 3 seasons combined. I'm not hedging my fantasy roster with him unless he's still on the board late and I need RB insurance. Let someone else take him.

Gio Bernard, I like him for PPR but that's about it since Jeremy Hill is now the premier bellcow and will also get all short yardage work. Gio is basically a passing down back on a good team, if you think Shane Vereen on the Pats drove you crazy last year with production, this will be a similar case. I wouldn't worry about him much unless you play PPR, then target him as a lower RB3 or high end 4.

 

[JujuFish]

McCoy will probably have a worse season than last year with the Bills O-line, although he could get high volume and actually do something with it as a pseudo-bellcow (don't forget about FJax). I'm still steering clear - he fits one of those good players on not-so-good teams type. Low end RB2 for me..

I'm a Bills fan and even I wouldn't trust McCoy's performance this year. There are too many questions: The o-line (should be better than last year, but that's not saying much), the QB situation, new HC, new OC, the o-line coach getting arrested, etc. Granted, it's a gamble that could pay off for someone, but I plan on steering clear when I'm up to draft.

 

[chitwood]

Andre Johnson will undoubtedly have a bounce back year, he's probably a middle WR2. While age is an issue, he only missed one game last year and still had 85 receptions with absolute shit at QB. Early reports are that he and Luck are on the same page and it'd be a good bet that he will be Luck's top target. If Reggie Wayne had 106 receptions last year, AJ could also flirt with 100 catches if he stays healthy.

I was originally high on Dre Johnson, but I've since cooled a bit. Hilton still has to be the #1 guy in Indy, Moncreif is entering his 2nd year, they drafted Phillip Dorsett, they have Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener... so many mouths to feed. Not that Luck isn't the guy to be able to feed them all, but weeks where AJ only sees a handful of targets is likely

 

[SP33Demon]

I was originally high on Dre Johnson, but I've since cooled a bit. Hilton still has to be the #1 guy in Indy, Moncreif is entering his 2nd year, they drafted Phillip Dorsett, they have Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener... so many mouths to feed. Not that Luck isn't the guy to be able to feed them all, but weeks where AJ only sees a handful of targets is likely

Well between Reggie Wayne and Hakeem Nicks, that's 144 receptions gone. Also, AJ is the best red zone receiver out of TY/Moncreif (or whoever wins WR3 for sub packages) and even Fleener/DA. I like AJ's chances as long as age isn't a factor.

 

[chitwood]

Expectations for Jimmy Graham, Justin Forsett, Vincent Jackson?

 

[pyonir]

I'm not usually a keeper league guy, but I was in one last year. I can keep three out of the following four...looking for opinions on who you'd keep (or omit):

Jordy Nelson
DeMarco Murray
Andrew Luck
Odell Beckham

Unlikely to keep, but on my final roster:
Martavis Bryant
Kelvin Benjamin
Mike Wallace

 

[Imported]

Are the keepers price or round based? OBJ for sure. Luck/Nelson pending price. I'd keep Bryant if he was really cheap.. same with Benjamin.

 

[pyonir]

No price or round basis. You just get to keep three.

 

[slayer202]

I'd toss Luck back