***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[brianmanahan]

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my predictions for 2015: US stocks down %5, international stocks up %15

 

[Blieb]

First. Reserved.

 

[brianmanahan]

First. Reserved.

quoted in case blieb changes :awe:

i just invested in my roth IRA and i-bonds today - once those go through i should be set for the year!

well except for rebalancing, and after-tax 401k rollovers to my roth IRA. i try to do those a couple times a year.

 

[Imp]

Hope my preferreds go back up so I can sell before the interest rate rises and people potentially panic sell.

On the other hand, this might be an incredible year for me.

RE: Canada's housing market + oil jobs + US Fed interest rates + record debt levels.

 

[brianmanahan]

On the other hand, this might be an incredible year for me.

RE: Canada's housing market + oil jobs + US Fed interest rates + record debt levels.

gonna short all the things? :biggrin:

 

[DesiPower]

Has anyone bought crude oil future? Price is affordable to buy 1000 barrels... Do you need some special privileged to buy stuff at Mercantile Exchange? or anyone can open account and buy. Are there broker sites that help you do that?

 

[Hugo Drax]

Has anyone bought crude oil future? Price is affordable to buy 1000 barrels... Do you need some special privileged to buy stuff at Mercantile Exchange? or anyone can open account and buy. Are there broker sites that help you do that?

Trade the gasoline futures. Worst case you take delivery of gasoline and use it for your car.

A win win, you go long gasoline and it goes up you make profits, if it goes down, then you just take delivery of gasoline and just use it for your commute. You can't lose either way.

 

[KB]

Has anyone bought crude oil future? Price is affordable to buy 1000 barrels... Do you need some special privileged to buy stuff at Mercantile Exchange? or anyone can open account and buy. Are there broker sites that help you do that?

It's easier to buy a commodity etf like USO.

 

[HybridSquirrel]

All in on Gold baby.

Trade the gasoline futures. Worst case you take delivery of gasoline and use it for your car.

A win win, you go long gasoline and it goes up you make profits, if it goes down, then you just take delivery of gasoline and just use it for your commute. You can't lose either way.

This sounds like a skit from It's Always Sunny....

 

[Kadarin]

All in on Gold baby.

All in AAPL stock.

 

[Attic]

Predictions for Dec 31 2015:

S&P: 1760
DJIA: 14600
10yr: 1.5%
WTI: 90
GLD 1320
USD/JPY: 165
AAPL: 85
TSLA: 140
GDP: 2.7%

Fed to continue to reinvest all maturities from it's book rather than winding down it's balance sheet as promised.


I'll still plunk my dollars into SPY shares monthly, because why fight the trend?

 

[HybridSquirrel]

Predictions for Dec 31 2015:

S&P: 1760
DJIA: 14600
10yr: 1.5%
WTI: 90
GLD 1320
USD/JPY: 165
AAPL: 85
TSLA: 140
GDP: 2.7%

Fed to continue to reinvest all maturities from it's book rather than winding down it's balance sheet as promised.


I'll still plunk my dollars into SPY shares monthly, because why fight the trend?

IMO, TSLA will dip below $100 at some point this year. Everything they had projected for 2015 has been delayed/pushed back and they are trying desperately to announce something new for this year, which ended up being a refresh for current models.

 

[Imp]

gonna short all the things? :biggrin:

Nope. Did someone way easier and safer: convert most of my CAD$ to US$.

If the US crashes, Canada will go right with it since they're the main customer. Worst case, I do my future shopping in the US and pay way less for everything.

Chances of that are low since the US of A is still on emergency interest rates. Canada? Bet huge on houses, bet huge on oil, taxpayer backed housing market, a supposed petrol dollar... what could go wrong?

 

[Corporate Thug]

Predictions for Dec 31 2015:

S&P: 1760
DJIA: 14600
10yr: 1.5%
WTI: 90
GLD 1320
USD/JPY: 165
AAPL: 85
TSLA: 140
GDP: 2.7%

Fed to continue to reinvest all maturities from it's book rather than winding down it's balance sheet as promised.


I'll still plunk my dollars into SPY shares monthly, because why fight the trend?

I think we are due for a correction but 20% loss YoY sounds a bit drastic.

 

[JEDI]

Predictions for Dec 31 2015:

S&P: 1760
DJIA: 14600

Fed to continue to reinvest all maturities from it's book rather than winding down it's balance sheet as promised.

thought whenever the repubs pwn both chambers of congress and a dem is in the white house, the stock market goes up an avg of 25%/yr for 2yrs?

what do you mean the Fed will reinvest?
reinvest what?
thought QEII is done?

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

One of hte best tech stocks in 2014 from Jan 1 to Dec 31 ... BBRY.

This year, I expect more of the same. 40-100% gain by end of year. Might even get entertained by a short squeeze.

 

[Imp]

Wooosh... just realized yesterday that there's a sort of well known ETF I can buy to play the CAD-US exchange rate and not have to deal with exchange fees -- and I knew about that ETF for over a year.

 

[jpiniero]

I think we are due for a correction but 20% loss YoY sounds a bit drastic.

I guess this is really based upon how much of the market is being fueled by the low rates.

What do you think the rate's gonna be on Dec 2015?

 

[JEDI]

oil down to $51/barrel in Asian markets.

hm.. consumers will now have more $ to spend because they save $ on gasoline.
I think i'll take a position on a Consumer discretionary fund

edit:
wow.. consumer staples did 50% better than consumer discretionary in 2014, despite a big drop gasoline prices?
WHY??

 

[JEDI]

you just take delivery of gasoline and just use it for your commute. You can't lose either way.

how does that work?
how many gallons do they delivery to your front door?

 

[pete6032]

how does that work?
how many gallons do they delivery to your front door?

More than you can probably legally store on your property above ground without a permit.

 

[Subyman]

Picked up BABA when it was in the 80's. Hoping for it to get on up there this year. I'm still wondering where the bottom is for oil.

 

[Imp]

Picked up BABA when it was in the 80's. Hoping for it to get on up there this year. I'm still wondering where the bottom is for oil.

Global, multi-trillion dollar game of chicken...

 

[Berliner]

Buy, uhm, art.

It will look nice and most probably prices will skyrocket, if it is mine, of course.

 

[JEDI]

Picked up BABA when it was in the 80's. Hoping for it to get on up there this year. I'm still wondering where the bottom is for oil.

at premarket, oil now at $50/barrel.

tea leaves say oil is going down to $40/barrel