One almost wonders if Shell and Exxon and the like are somehow manipulating the market or giving kick backs to OPEC somehow. I honestly would not be surprised.
I honestly would not be surprised.
Not sure if it is low enough yet. What made you decide now is the time?
Michael
It has to go higher or else the higher cost providers (fracking) will stop producing. Then there will be a supply issue. Which means prices go up which means more fracking.
It's kinda messed up. Oil costs between $35 and $80+ (approx.) to produce.
That's what helps me sleep at night. I don't think the Middle East can produce enough to supply the entire world, so the supply/demand thing *should* work out over the long-term.
So, COS is back down to CAD$ ~8.50. I didn't buy when it went up 25% a few weeks ago because I thought it'd come back down. Now, we're back down... But at these prices, they'll very likely cut their dividend from $0.20/quarter to $0.15/quarter, at least. Average down now or when oil hits $40?
Flip a coin. Assuming COS stays solvent, they could become a penny stock. I would be worried more about return of capital not return on capital or dividends at this stage.
It's probably not. But I made the decision to buy at these levels last year and I'm sticking with my plan. I traded Amkor last year from high $5 to high $10 so I'm trying my luck again this year. BP is probably long term hold.
I told you people to sell last month. The first week of January every year is always filled with drama.
On 12/30/15 buy puts on the QQQ/SP/Etc and cash in the first week of 2016.
I generally wait for an even lower price for Amkor and a catalyst for volume changes in semiconductor shipments (to the upside). I was CFO of a competitor of theirs for a while and used to know the industry very well. Amkor is a ones Avery 3 year trade and makes 3-5 x what you invested in my opinion.
Michael
But I thought you were bullish last month when you took a long call position on DRYS?
so was $47 oil the bottom?
$48 in normal US trading.
now $49 and climbing in over seas trading
Listened to a podcast today regarding oil. It's a bunch of value investors. Their stance is that Saudi Arabia is the cause of the low oil prices and they dropped their prices to get at their neighbors (over something, I don't know what). But the neighboring oil rich countries have revenue targets so they started producing more to get the same revenues. Which increases supply and with more supply online, what does the supply demand curve state? Even lower prices. So, this could get ugly. But they think that it can't stay low for long. They didn't say why but $40 oil would be very worrisome. They think oil should get back to $70-$80 fairly soon (within a year or two).
At ~$50 for Brent, that means they'd have to produce twice as much to get same revenue as when oil was $100. I can't believe they have that much reserve capacity or that they'd even be able to ramp it up so quickly. If they do, ya, lol, good luck to prices.
Meanwhile, I'm seeing more anecdotal "they just cut us" news stories and comments around the place.
If people start wasting gas again because its relatively cheap (by comparison to $4+ a gallon), Im going to smack them upside the head. Its wasteful stupidity like that & not continuing to invest in more effecient technologies that gives us $100 oil.
Get ready to smack! That is what people have been trained to do since childhood.
On a side note is this the begining? http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/private/snapshot.asp?privcapId=246244704
All the talking heads are asking what is the break even price.
The break even price is useless. When a driller goes looking for a loan he doesn't say "If you lend us this money and we hit a good well, no equipment breaksdown and no bad wheather holds us up we will break even." The money people are not going to form a line to get in on it.
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