***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[senseamp]

QQQs now 102.....will touch 90 in Oct.

I hope so. Looking for a house in Silicon Valley, and that stuff goes with Nasdaq like Peanut Butter and Jelly

 

[Imp]

Wait. This can't be right. Oil rallied 20-30% this past week. Everything was fine...

 

[MustISO]

It's all smoke and mirrors...

 

[Hugo Drax]

Huge open interest on the December 2017 spy puts for a strike price of 10
Someone betting Spy will trade at 10 or less.

 

[brianmanahan]

finally got a chance to TLH international - that'll save me a few hundred bucks on taxes this year

 

[brianmanahan]

i bet S&P500 ends up at 1700 by the end of the year

 

[jpiniero]

i bet S&P500 ends up at 1700 by the end of the year

Dunno, Wall Street is sure putting on a full court press to prod the Fed to not hike rates.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dunno, Wall Street is sure putting on a full court press to prod the Fed to not hike rates.

After 7 years the punch bowel goes back in storage.

Enjoy the .25% rate hike in Sept.

 

[Imp]

Got damn. Just bothered to look up the DOW. It's down 9.9% on the year.

Shanghai market, apparently, opened lower, bounced up, and is now lower with an hour or two of trading left.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Got damn. Just bothered to look up the DOW. It's down 9.9% on the year.

Shanghai market, apparently, opened lower, bounced up, and is now lower with an hour or two of trading left.

Futures set to bounce back up. Go figure.

I guess that's what happens with volatility... constant stream of large downs and large ups.

 

[edro]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

Oil will return sometime in Q1-Q2 of 2016.

The moment Saudi stops producing so much is the moment prices skyrocket again.

 

[Charmonium]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

Double and triple commodity funds use leverage to try to approximate a double or triple return on the underlying index. The cost of transaction and management fees will cut into that. So as a general rule, such etf's aren't well suited to a buy and hold strategy. Plus, both gains and losses are amplified by leverage so you'll lose twice as much going down just like you gain twice as much going up. You might want to look at a non-leveraged long fund like USO.

 

[dullard]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

I haven't done oil so I can't comment on those specific funds, but I've done both VelocityShares and ProShares on double/triple shorting silver (ZSL and DSLV). From my experience, I'm never going to ProShares again. The funds themselves may perform similarly profit wise (and I made a bundle on both companies), but the actual tax experience is night and day different.

With ProShares, you get a portion of the company and get to file/pay their income tax for them. Say hello to ~3 extra tax forms that you've never seen before and the costs to prepare / pay that tax. Sure it isn't much tax, but it is highly annoying to deal with. With ProShares, prepare to learn all about filing schedule K-1: http://www.proshares.com/faqs/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html

Also with ProShares, they repeatedly split / reverse split the fund with every price spike / surge. So just be prepared for that tax difficulty as well (and the fact that they sell your fractional shares after a reverse split when they choose to do so and not when it is a good profit/tax time for you).

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I haven't done oil so I can't comment on those specific funds, but I've done both VelocityShares and ProShares on double/triple shorting silver (ZSL and DSLV). From my experience, I'm never going to ProShares again. The funds themselves may perform similarly profit wise (and I made a bundle on both companies), but the actual tax experience is night and day different.

With ProShares, you get a portion of the company and get to file/pay their income tax for them. Say hello to ~3 extra tax forms that you've never seen before and the costs to prepare / pay that tax. Sure it isn't much tax, but it is highly annoying to deal with. With ProShares, prepare to learn all about filing schedule K-1: http://www.proshares.com/faqs/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html

Also with ProShares, they repeatedly split / reverse split the fund with every price spike / surge. So just be prepared for that tax difficulty as well (and the fact that they sell your fractional shares after a reverse split when they choose to do so and not when it is a good profit/tax time for you).

One of the many reasons I'm not touching taxable investments until I can comfortably max out:
1) My 401k
2) My Wife's 401k
3) My Roth IRA
4) My Wife's Roth IRA

I just don't see the point with how much of a headache all the new forms will cause...

 

[dullard]

One of the many reasons I'm not touching taxable investments until I can comfortably max out:
1) My 401k
2) My Wife's 401k
3) My Roth IRA
4) My Wife's Roth IRA

I just don't see the point with how much of a headache all the new forms will cause...

A good accountant will take care of that for you. And you are following the general advice that works for many but not all people (I max out all of those myself). That said, if you donate to charity or plan to pass on your wealth at some point, taxable stocks can be a BETTER deal for you than a 401k.

* A 401k is tax deferred, so you don't deal with yearly tax forms and the gains can built before taxes take their cut, but you still pay the tax eventually. You get the gains but eventually pay the tax.

* A donated taxable stock means you get the gains, never pay any tax on the gains, AND get tax deductions from the government for doing so. Essentially you can sell a portion, donate a portion, make money, and get a net tax deduction. It is the only legal way that I know of where your taxes go down while you profit. Of course, this only works if you didn't intend to keep all of the gains yourself.

* An inherited taxable stock means your beneficiary gets the gains but no one ever pays a tax on the gains.

I strongly urge people who do donate or wish to pass on wealth to look into getting at least SOME buy and hold taxable stocks. The commodity stocks mentioned above are not buy and hold. But a S&P 500 tracking mutual fund, ETF, or similar is a great thing to have for donations.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

A good accountant will take care of that for you. And you are following the general advice that works for many but not all people (I max out all of those myself). That said, if you donate to charity or plan to pass on your wealth at some point, taxable stocks can be a BETTER deal for you than a 401k.

* A 401k is tax deferred, so you don't deal with yearly tax forms and the gains can built before taxes take their cut, but you still pay the tax eventually. You get the gains but eventually pay the tax.

* A donated taxable stock means you get the gains, never pay any tax on the gains, AND get tax deductions from the government for doing so. Essentially you can sell a portion, donate a portion, make money, and get a net tax deduction. It is the only legal way that I know of where your taxes go down while you profit. Of course, this only works if you didn't intend to keep all of the gains yourself.

* An inherited taxable stock means your beneficiary gets the gains but no one ever pays a tax on the gains.

I strongly urge people who do donate or wish to pass on wealth to look into getting at least SOME buy and hold taxable stocks. The commodity stocks mentioned above are not buy and hold. But a S&P 500 tracking mutual fund, ETF, or similar is a great thing to have for donations.

Yes, but I enjoy not having to pay to get my taxes done yearly.... soo... gotta factor that in

In all honesty, since I work in accounting and tax I hope to always be able to do my own taxes. I'll worry about donating stocks when I have a kid to pass things on to.

Though I was always under the impression that trust funds were hands down the best way to pass on wealth?

 

[dullard]

Yes, but I enjoy not having to pay to get my taxes done yearly.... soo... gotta factor that in

In all honesty, since I work in accounting and tax I hope to always be able to do my own taxes. I'll worry about donating stocks when I have a kid to pass things on to.

Though I was always under the impression that trust funds were hands down the best way to pass on wealth?

For buy and hold stocks, you can do it yourself quite easilly (actually I did all the nasty ProShares tax forms myself too). Basically, you just keep a record of when you bought it, and many years later keep a record of when you sold it. Not much to do in-between other than one tax form of dividends each year (if applicable). If you do taxes yourself, I would suggest not reinvesting dividends in taxable accounts so that you have a very clean buy and sell date (rather than dozens of small buys to keep track of).

If you need a trust fund, that is beyond the scope of this forum. But I think they are just an expensive wrapper around the concept of owning taxable stocks with the intent of not actually selling them and thus getting wealthy without ever paying taxes on those gains.

 

[Imp]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

You better look up "decay" before going long on leveraged stocks.

I haven't done oil so I can't comment on those specific funds, but I've done both VelocityShares and ProShares on double/triple shorting silver (ZSL and DSLV). From my experience, I'm never going to ProShares again. The funds themselves may perform similarly profit wise (and I made a bundle on both companies), but the actual tax experience is night and day different.

With ProShares, you get a portion of the company and get to file/pay their income tax for them. Say hello to ~3 extra tax forms that you've never seen before and the costs to prepare / pay that tax. Sure it isn't much tax, but it is highly annoying to deal with. With ProShares, prepare to learn all about filing schedule K-1: http://www.proshares.com/faqs/volatility_commodity_currency_proshares_taxation_faqs.html

What is special about ProShares that you need those extra forms? I clicked the link and something about futures?

I've looked up the forms for my American ETFs and I've only seen stuff about dividends and return of capital, pretty basic and easy stuff. Or I'm missing something and there's a warrant out for my arrest for tax evasion.

Edit: Okay, found some info on K-1s... Commodities, partnerships, etc.
http://etfdb.com/etf-tax-efficiency/etf-tax-tutorial-complete-list-of-etfs-that-issue-a-k-1/

 

[dullard]

Edit: Okay, found some info on K-1s... Commodities, partnerships, etc.
http://etfdb.com/etf-tax-efficiency/etf-tax-tutorial-complete-list-of-etfs-that-issue-a-k-1/

Yes, that summed it up quite nicely. If you have two similar investments to select from, I'll gladly pick the one where you aren't knowingly/unknowingly forming a "partnership".

 

[Udgnim]

If I wanted to invest in oil, would these type funds be good?

NYSEARCA:UWTI - VelocityShares 3X Long Crude ETN linked to the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index Excess Return
NYSEARCA:UCO - ProShares Ultra DJ-UBS Crude Oil

My hillbilly logic says there will be a time in the future when oil will be in high demand again. Of course, with domestic production up and electric could take over... oil may never return.

UWTI is 3x leveraged and UCO is 2x leveraged

they decay over time

meaning if the price of oil remains static over time, you are losing money on UWTI / UCO over time due to decay

UWTI & UCO are meant to be day traded or held for a few days if you're betting that there will be strong momentum upwards in the price of oil for those few days

you're already playing with fire while trading UWTI & UCO

the longer you hold it, the more likely you will get burned

if you want to put money into oil, then either throw it at USO or XOM, CVX, or RDS.A/B and check back after a couple years have passed

 

[Hugo Drax]

The 32x leverage etfs are coming in 2016 if you want to play with more fire.

 

[Charmonium]

The 32x leverage etfs are coming in 2016 if you want to play with more fire.

I'm assuming that's a joke but it wouldn't really surprise me.

 

[FelixDeCat]

The 32x leverage etfs are coming in 2016 if you want to play with more fire.

Yeah, no.

 

[dr150]

The 32x leverage etfs are coming in 2016 if you want to play with more fire.

I'm in. Lets do this!.....32x Chinese Small Cap :thumbsup:

Go big or go home!
.
.
.
On second thought, Vegas is funner...followed-up with some hookers & blow action.