***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
But if you win, it's infinite hookers & blow at 32x... Or you become the hooker when they call your margin.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Guess what is going to happen to the market on Friday?

Heres a hint:


Hahaha.

Just out of curiosity, what is your thought process for why stocks will be down tomorrow?

My guess: Jobs report will come in showing an overall good report. Thereby indicating to investors a fed rate hike this month will happen. BAM, stocks plummet. Dow down 500.

I love guessing stocks just to see what happens
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
premarket - dow down .75% so far

with all this up and down, I should have went all in on VIX a couple of weeks ago.. sigh
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Hahaha.

Just out of curiosity, what is your thought process for why stocks will be down tomorrow?

My guess: Jobs report will come in showing an overall good report. Thereby indicating to investors a fed rate hike this month will happen. BAM, stocks plummet. Dow down 500.

I love guessing stocks just to see what happens

Well, it pays no have no money in play. Things are too crazy and long or short, one is likely to lose money. My stance is that right now it is better to watch.

My gut tells me we are going to retest last weeks lows (at least 99 or lower on the QQQ's).

Last week it was data and bargain hunters that caused a swift run from 97 to 105 in a few days, and it was data that caused some short covering on Wednesday. I could be wrong (but I doubt it). I think we are flat to lower until buyers put a more stable floor back in the market.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
A lot of buyers of UST's are now becoming sellers - example, China. With supply of bonds increasing, price will go down and yield will increase. We've already seen it happen. The fed will raise rates to show that they're not behind the curve.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Hahaha.

Just out of curiosity, what is your thought process for why stocks will be down tomorrow?

My guess: Jobs report will come in showing an overall good report. Thereby indicating to investors a fed rate hike this month will happen. BAM, stocks plummet. Dow down 500.

I love guessing stocks just to see what happens

I do too when I have virtually nothing in play...

No clue where it's going since I heard Friday has Thursday and Friday off -- national holiday? Hoping job numbers are good on US side.

Job numbers come out in Canada too, I think... They'll be within -50,000 to +100,000 because for some reason Canada's job numbers don't follow a trend year round. But they'll probably do a nice 30% correction to the total at year end.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
employers added 173,000 workers in august and the jobless rate dropped to 5.1 percent, a level that the federal reserve considers to be full employment.

chaos! Chaos i tell you!!! All hell has broken loose! The fed is raising rates!


 

Attic

Diamond Member
Jan 9, 2010
4,282
2
76
It has to be brought back up one way or another.

Can not risk having the market actually reflect the state of the economy, Dow 12-14k, S&P 1200-1300.

The dips, have typically been a good buying opportunity given the massive stimulus and implied Put the Fed has on the equity market.

But waters definitely look quite a bit more choppy (dangerous) than usual. I'd time the market by not timing it, regularly monthly or quarterly investment in index fund or ETF.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
chaos! Chaos i tell you!!! All hell has broken loose! The fed is raising rates!


And August is a month that is notorious for having steep upward revisions, so 5.1% is probably conservative. I'm sure the fed realizes this. Despite any existing slack in the jobs market, I don't think they have any choice at this point. The market is going to start raising rates regardless of what the fed does so it's a moot point either way.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Apparently, both June and July were upwardly revised this year. And there's some statistical anomaly in August, so it'll probably hit the targeted 220k when it's revised next month.

P.S. I saw headlines that the 15 and 30 year U.S. bond rates went up yesterday?
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
And August is a month that is notorious for having steep upward revisions, so 5.1% is probably conservative. I'm sure the fed realizes this. Despite any existing slack in the jobs market, I don't think they have any choice at this point. The market is going to start raising rates regardless of what the fed does so it's a moot point either way.

Sooo should I max out my ROTH on Index funds now, or wait until the Fed makes the announcement?

I mean, the markets are down now because with these numbers people are expecting the fed to raise rates. The question is if they go lower when they actually announce what everyone suspects.

It has to be brought back up one way or another.

Can not risk having the market actually reflect the state of the economy, Dow 12-14k, S&P 1200-1300.

The dips, have typically been a good buying opportunity given the massive stimulus and implied Put the Fed has on the equity market.

But waters definitely look quite a bit more choppy (dangerous) than usual. I'd time the market by not timing it, regularly monthly or quarterly investment in index fund or ETF.

I do a little of both. My 401k obviously has to be month to month.

But for my ROTH contributions I try to time the market for low points. It's proven itself worthy this year. Most people seem to just max out their IRA's on January 1st. We're now at amounts lower than it was on January 1st.
 
Last edited:

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
Sooo should I max out my ROTH on Index funds now, or wait until the Fed makes the announcement? I mean, the markets are down now because with these numbers people are expecting the fed to raise rates. The question is if they go lower when they actually announce what everyone suspects.
I'd wait until the VIX settles down a bit. There's probably still some downside left in this market. For the past three years, the price for the S&P500 has been going up while earnings estimates have been going down. Now, for the first time, the market and estimates are lining up.

http://www.businessinsider.com/sp-eps-change-and-price-change-2015-9



I would buy on dips like today but average your buying out over the next 3-4 months. If the fed raises rates this month, I think you'll see some version of buy the rumor, sell the news happening except in this case it will be sell the rumor buy the news. I think the market will respond favorably to a rate increase - but that's just my opinion. Personally, I'm not doing much of anything right now.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
That's kind of a scary chart.

Looks like I may be sitting out longer than I planned. Would like to buy some preferreds, but rate rise will likely mean price drop on fixed income to boost yield. Supposed leaked Fed rate schedule said rates wouldn't top out for a few years. FML.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
That's kind of a scary chart.

Looks like I may be sitting out longer than I planned. Would like to buy some preferreds, but rate rise will likely mean price drop on fixed income to boost yield. Supposed leaked Fed rate schedule said rates wouldn't top out for a few years. FML.
It depends what you buy. Rates are definitely going up and the Fed probably has less to do with it than you would think. Everybody knows what the stats are showing - low UE, modest wage growth, just in general a strong economy. Plus, if reports of foreign selling of USTs are actually true and significant to impact the bond market, that means lower prices and higher yields whatever the fed does.

However if you go with a good high-yield (aka junk) fund or etf, those types of securities tend to follow the stock rather than the bond market. The better stocks are doing, the better the economy and therefore the less likely any of these lower rated bonds are likely to default. So their price tends to go up. IOW, they are more sensitive to economic conditions than interest rates.
 

debian0001

Senior member
Jun 8, 2012
465
0
76
I wish I would have gotten into the market a year ago... I have been waiting for this crash to happen for a bit and it finally happened.
 
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