***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Heres the stock market next week:

Yay! The dome remained intact! That means it won't go to zero.

 

[MustISO]

It's definitely either going to go up or down. You can take that to the bank.

 

[FelixDeCat]

$100 is on the horizon this week or next, QQQ

 

[sm625]

Heres the stock market next week:

I will take that bet, and raise you one monkey.

 

[JEDI]

I will take that bet, and raise you one monkey.

a little after the opening bell, Dow is up 100 points!
(altho Volkswagen is down -20% )

 

[sm625]

Just watched ADXS drop from 20.83 to 14.18 in a matter of minutes. I had it as a paper trade and wondered if the market just got some bad news on it, but I shrugged it off and went back to work.

It's now back up over 20...

C'est la vie.

It means some big institution went to dump its shares, but there was no liquidity so the bottom fell out of it. Their broker was dumb for making an outsized trade. When you see something like that it is likely to retest that level with more volume. When the whole market does that, it is likely the PPT will step in and start goosing the market.

 

[mzkhadir]

Biotech stocks tumbling on Hillary tweet.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/21/hillary-clinton-tweet-sends-biotech-stocks-tumbling/

 

[Imp]

Ugh. Just sold my second last stock for a huge loss -- it was up 15% in the first few months of the year, slowly collapsed to -15% when I sold it. Turns out food and fertilizer isn't as foolproof/recession proof as I thought. Kicking myself because this was my "buy and hold" play. I sold the other half of this position around January for a big gain.

Still up 11% on the year but FML.

 

[baydude]

Ugh. Just sold my second last stock for a huge loss -- it was up 15% in the first few months of the year, slowly collapsed to -15% when I sold it. Turns out food and fertilizer isn't as foolproof/recession proof as I thought. Kicking myself because this was my "buy and hold" play. I sold the other half of this position around January for a big gain.

Still up 11% on the year but FML.

I was up about 15% on biotech/healthcare ETFs in the first half of the year. Today I am down 5%. I was also planning to buy and hold this for at least a year. Can't decide to sell and cut my lost or continue holding..

 

[Imp]

My decision was easier. I sold POT, it's a commodity, and commodities have been in the shitter for a long time. I just thought fertilizer wouldn't be hit as hard... nope. Analysts are also calling for much lower prices now (for the stock, commodities, and pretty much the world economy), and I'm believing them. China's still on the edge of the cliff, they haven't even gone over yet.

Could have afforded a total loss on my position -- very very unlikely -- but I don't like losing money?

 

[Charmonium]

When intra-market correlations are high, it doesn't really matter what you've invested in. Here's a great article that explains this.

http://www.businessinsider.com/high-correlations-low-return-dispersion-2015-9

Basically, when the general sentiment in the market is bullish or bearish, stocks tend to move together - i.e., are highly correlated with one another. This sucks for stock pickers since even a good stock is going to go up or down with the rest of the market.

In addition, the std deviation in returns between stocks shrink. So not only do stocks tend to move together, but returns tend to congregate around a mean. That what the following chart shows.

 

[KB]

My decision was easier. I sold POT, it's a commodity, and commodities have been in the shitter for a long time. I just thought fertilizer wouldn't be hit as hard... nope. Analysts are also calling for much lower prices now (for the stock, commodities, and pretty much the world economy), and I'm believing them. China's still on the edge of the cliff, they haven't even gone over yet.

Could have afforded a total loss on my position -- very very unlikely -- but I don't like losing money?

I am holding my POT. We have been here before many times. Potash prices are up a bit from 280/ton earlier. Plus we have had some mine closures in New Mexico.

 

[dr150]

Biotech stocks tumbling on Hillary tweet.

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/09/21/hillary-clinton-tweet-sends-biotech-stocks-tumbling/

I will take that bet, and raise you one monkey.

Giddyup on the biotech! Screw Hillary!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Goes down, sorry longs.

 

[Imp]

I am holding my POT. We have been here before many times. Potash prices are up a bit from 280/ton earlier. Plus we have had some mine closures in New Mexico.

With a ~6% trailing year dividend yield, it's probably a sweet longer term hold. It was pretty good to me -- bought around CA$ 32 two years ago, sold at ~CA$ 38 and bought back in around CA$ 37 and sold half at CA$ 40. Collected over a year's worth of dividends.

 

[Hugo Drax]

Yay! The dome remained intact! That means it won't go to zero.

SPY ETF. :biggrin:

 

[Hugo Drax]

When intra-market correlations are high, it doesn't really matter what you've invested in. Here's a great article that explains this.

http://www.businessinsider.com/high-correlations-low-return-dispersion-2015-9

Basically, when the general sentiment in the market is bullish or bearish, stocks tend to move together - i.e., are highly correlated with one another. This sucks for stock pickers since even a good stock is going to go up or down with the rest of the market.

In addition, the std deviation in returns between stocks shrink. So not only do stocks tend to move together, but returns tend to congregate around a mean. That what the following chart shows.

This is where SPY and its options come into play. :biggrin: You guys can keep gambling on those stock plays.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Wall Street set for a tumble

Wall Street shares were tipped to open sharply lower on Tuesday, as European markets suffered steep falls.

 

[FelixDeCat]

$100 is on the horizon this week or next, QQQ

:whiste:

 

[Imp]

Got dam... POT went down to low CA$ 29, 6.4% down from yesterday. Glad I sold... Not so glad I didn't sell last week when my losses were only half as much.

 

[Imp]

Something about China manufacturing numbers (PMI) down, DOW futures down too.

I am shocked. I am seriously shocked that the country that makes all our shit is not producing as much stuff when most of the world is in some sort of debt/financial distress.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

News event XYZ will have a 50% chance of moving the markets up.

 

[FelixDeCat]

NFLX is going back to the $70s after earnings on lowered expectations.

 

[Charmonium]

NFLX is going back to the $70s after earnings on lowered expectations.

Guess no one believed their phony "membership" numbers.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Actually NFLX only went up despite increased losses (following the AMZN model) because of the stock split and growth hopes in India. India!

I think a pullback is in order, but they might wow investors with bigger losses due to capital spending and hopes for more growth in the future (following the AMZN model).

I currently have no position in the stock but if I did I would favor puts. NFLX options are pricey and its best to buy them just before the earnings release.