***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Dafuq is this about Glencore? Something about it being much larger than it seems.

Shanghai and Nikkei is currently down around 2% and 4%, respectively.

Go go all cash USD.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
I didn't see this today, did this really happen.

maybe not?
started my computer this morning and cnn main page had -300.
didn't see it because I was on another page. saw from my brokerage acct that it was +100.
20min later when the cnn page was back in front view, I saw -300!

now looking more closely, it's apparently from close yesterday.
wtf cnn not updating market #s?
 

Jeffg010

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2008
3,438
1
0
I thought about going bonds but the Fed thing is worrying -- Fed hike rate, bond prices go down for yields to go up?

Regardless, I'm almost all cash. My single Canadian preferreds ETF is taking a massive dump -- no surprise given how the economy is in recession (i.e. companies no make da moneys to make da payouts).

This is my 401k I can't move it to cash and the safest place would be in bonds. I lost 30k from the very high I had but it would be closer to 50k if I did not move to bonds since. I do believe we are headed on a downward trend.

My other stock money is sitting as cash. The feds really f'd themselves by getting to 0 there is no way to stimulate this market at 0. The sooner they raise the rates the better all they are doing delaying and cause more fear on investors.
 

cliftonite

Diamond Member
Jul 15, 2001
6,899
63
91
This is my 401k I can't move it to cash and the safest place would be in bonds. I lost 30k from the very high I had but it would be closer to 50k if I did not move to bonds since. I do believe we are headed on a downward trend.

My other stock money is sitting as cash. The feds really f'd themselves by getting to 0 there is no way to stimulate this market at 0. The sooner they raise the rates the better all they are doing delaying and cause more fear on investors.

No money market acct in your 401k? I have been in FID RETIRE MMKT for about 2 months now.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
But for the uninformed there are quarterlies too on things like the QQQs, the one I watch.

Those were closed out a long time ago. That was last friday, almost two weeks ago. And I doubt they try to set market targets via QQQ. The NASDAQ is too volatile. Some idiot hedgie jacking up the price of a drug and creating a media s#!+storm is all it takes to hack off 25% from biotechs, which disproportionately impacts the NASDAQ.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,774
919
126
This is my 401k I can't move it to cash and the safest place would be in bonds. I lost 30k from the very high I had but it would be closer to 50k if I did not move to bonds since. I do believe we are headed on a downward trend.

My other stock money is sitting as cash. The feds really f'd themselves by getting to 0 there is no way to stimulate this market at 0. The sooner they raise the rates the better all they are doing delaying and cause more fear on investors.

Something like 401K, the best thing to do is just ride it and not try to move things around a bunch. Trying to time the markets on instincts is not a winning strategy.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
My advice - buy low, sell high

haha.. I c u changed it from quarter is ending today (sept 30) and the tinfoilhat bigwigs (ie: goldman sachs) is going to down the market some more because reasons

lol

for those of u who don't know, market is up +200points right now
 

Jeffg010

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2008
3,438
1
0
Something like 401K, the best thing to do is just ride it and not try to move things around a bunch. Trying to time the markets on instincts is not a winning strategy.

So saving 20k so far by moving to bonds is a bad thing? I'll keep doing what I been doing.
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
So saving 20k so far by moving to bonds is a bad thing? I'll keep doing what I been doing.

The problem is you will likely over-react. Hold it for longer (and miss gains when the market spikes back), or simply sell AFTER the big drop has already occurred. Or simply do it when there isn't even a real market drop, but rather a 1-day hiccup.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
As far as 401K strategy is concerned, there is one very useful and very simple one that I try to follow. The S&P500 20W/50W cross. It is incredibly simple. You get in stocks when the 20W moving average crosses above the 50W moving average, on the weekly chart. You get into cash when the reverse occurs, as shown below:



This is a long term timing indicator, and you can lose some money via whipsaws, such as in 2010 and 2011 (and yes, potentially in 2015 as well). But you will always capture the meat of the move in the market (ie the 2009's and the 2013's). Go back through 50 years of charts and see, it works very well. It produces much better returns than buy-and-hold over the long term. Allow for 1% slop.
 
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Jeffg010

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2008
3,438
1
0
The problem is you will likely over-react. Hold it for longer (and miss gains when the market spikes back), or simply sell AFTER the big drop has already occurred. Or simply do it when there isn't even a real market drop, but rather a 1-day hiccup.

So you are saying this is a one day hiccup? ok
 

Jeffg010

Diamond Member
Feb 22, 2008
3,438
1
0
As far as 401K strategy is concerned, there is one very useful and very simple one that I try to follow. The S&P500 20W/50W cross. It is incredibly simple. You get in stocks when the 20W moving average crosses above the 50W moving average, on the weekly chart. You get into cash when the reverse occurs, as shown below:



This is a long term timing indicator, and you can lose some money via whipsaws, such as in 2010 and 2011 (and yes, potentially in 2015 as well). But you will always capture the meat of the move in the market (ie the 2009's and the 2013's). Go back through 50 years of charts and see, it works very well. It produces much better returns than buy-and-hold over the long term. Allow for 1% slop.

This is the type of thinking that I agree on. People act like OMG you missed when the market goes back up, so what, I negated a big drop that would have killed my 401k.

I don't agree this is a one time drop. Look at all international markets they been crap. Gold has done nothing but hover at 1100. Oil has drop like a rock. And the biggest problem is the Prime rate being at 0.25. The longer it stays like this the worst off we will be and when they do raise it the market will take anther hit down.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
This is the type of thinking that I agree on. People act like OMG you missed when the market goes back up, so what, I negated a big drop that would have killed my 401k.

Perhaps. But perhaps not. The type of drop that you "negated" isnt really the type of drop that kills a 401k. It's more like a minor flesh wound. 2008 is the type of drop that kills a 401k. (BTW the 20W was under the 50W for the entirety of 2008, as well as 2001 AND 2002) But right now the 20W/50W is still in that ambiguous zone where it could easily whipsaw. I believe the proper move is to stay long, until that 20W moving average makes a clear progression below the 50W. At this point it would take a massive rally of epic proportions to whipsaw the 20W back above the 50W. But it certainly is possible. And I dont say that because my own indicator is extremely bullish right now!
 
Nov 8, 2012
20,828
4,777
146
Perhaps. But perhaps not. The type of drop that you "negated" isnt really the type of drop that kills a 401k. It's more like a minor flesh wound. 2008 is the type of drop that kills a 401k. (BTW the 20W was under the 50W for the entirety of 2008, as well as 2001 AND 2002) But right now the 20W/50W is still in that ambiguous zone where it could easily whipsaw. I believe the proper move is to stay long, until that 20W moving average makes a clear progression below the 50W. At this point it would take a massive rally of epic proportions to whipsaw the 20W back above the 50W. But it certainly is possible. And I dont say that because my own indicator is extremely bullish right now!

Outside of monitoring the market every single day, do you have a way to notify you when such occurs?


Follow this one weird trick to protect your 401k.

Traders hate him!

Holy fuck that made me laugh way too much for all it was
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Outside of monitoring the market every single day, do you have a way to notify you when such occurs?

Well it is actually a weekly check that you have to make. There is no reason at all to check it daily. Just once every weekend would suffice. It only takes like 20 seconds to check it. But I actually wrote a simple program that gets the data using this link:

http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/table.csv?s=^GSPC&a=00&b=3&c=2014&d=09&e=1&f=2099&g=w&ignore=.csv

and then estimates the likelihood of a cross based on the magnitude of the move required in order to prevent it. It is pretty neat, but not really necessary. I only wrote the program because I like to do such silly things. One interesting thing my program tells me is that if the market puts in a weekly print right here where we are right now on thursday, it would take a rally of 4.6% each week over the next two weeks to prevent this long term timing indicator from producing a long term bear market signal. Yeah, that is pretty much impossible. Not totally impossible, but very borderline. If we somehow close this week at 1950, then the required weekly gain over the next two weeks is only 3.0% per week. Either way, this indicator is right on the precipice of flipping. And if it does it will most likely remain bearish for several months, potentially years.
 
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