***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Dow and SP500 down like 1.5%, CAD went from 0.724 USD to 0.717 USD.

Keep em coming... Kicking myself for not putting that last 5% of my portfolio into USD.

I'm not going to touch anything until January. Might do an opposite "wash trade" to trigger capital gains next week. Hope I don't get screwed in the 5 minutes I should be invested.

 

[Artdeco]

Heh, somehow I bought Solar City and Sunrun last week, nice run up

 

[FelixDeCat]

lol

 

[Imp]

I don't think it affects Canada... well actually won't it make the dollar stronger (which should only make oil cheaper)? They are also talking about lifting the oil export embargo (to try to save the frackers?) Not sure it's gonna work. But that's going to add more competition in other countries.

Did some reading since yesterday, looks like oil export thing actually has a good chance of clearing both houses and Bronco Bama hasn't said anything about a veto.

So... WTI will trade closer to Brent, but Brent will probably go down with the additional supply hitting the market? Meanwhile, WCS is still trading at a ~$14 discount to WTI.

And apparently, Iran potentially has the ability to dump a few million barrels per day on the market once the embargo is lifted. Good times ahead for Canada!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Solar will be the best investment for 2016.

 

[jpiniero]

Solar will be the best investment for 2016.

I thought all the US firms went out of business because China. Solar panels are toxic to make, it's much easier to get away it over there Maybe installers? Or maybe just Tesla?

 

[Artdeco]

lol

God looks after children and fools, am not a child, soooooo..... LOL

Was just looking for stuff that had active options and saw Solar City was pretty brisk, then saw the run up on Sunrun, bought it on a lark.

 

[Udgnim]

I thought all the US firms went out of business because China. Solar panels are toxic to make, it's much easier to get away it over there Maybe installers? Or maybe just Tesla?

market thinks the government will continue helping prop up US solar with credits

 

[FelixDeCat]

God looks after children and fools, am not a child, soooooo..... LOL

Was just looking for stuff that had active options and saw Solar City was pretty brisk, then saw the run up on Sunrun, bought it on a lark.

Despite its recent large run-up, I like SunEdison. It is rich in solar goodness but is heavily in debt and losing money. The clouds appearing to be parting however and if they can execute it may return to $30+ from its current price of $6.50. ()

 

[Charmonium]

Despite its recent large run-up, I like SunEdison. It is rich in solar goodness but is heavily in debt and losing money. The clouds appearing to be parting however and if they can execute it may return to $30+ from its current price of $6.50. ()

Aren't the prices for solar stocks and the price of oil inversely correlated? It's hard to see how any solar company can make any headway with oil prices where they are and no new govt subsidies.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Aren't the prices for solar stocks and the price of oil inversely correlated? It's hard to see how any solar company can make any headway with oil prices where they are and no new govt subsidies.

World wide carbon taxes to discourage fossil fuel use and long term credits for renewable appear to be in our future, it make sense to simply buy and hold solar over the next 5-10 years. Im not sure if adoption for home use will become the norm, although anything is possible.

What makes more sense its continued commercial/industrial adoption and building for use in utilities for home use.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Im also stubbornly sticking with my return to $100 on the QQQs sometime in the near future.

 

[Imp]

Aren't the prices for solar stocks and the price of oil inversely correlated? It's hard to see how any solar company can make any headway with oil prices where they are and no new govt subsidies.

I'm hearing nowadays that because oil is so cheap, solar and other renewables are suddenly dead -- like everyone will just chuck them in the garbage and start over later.

I think we're at the point where renewables are advanced enough that they make somewhat economical sense, and switching over to them completely in the next century is feasible. So... while oil might slow it down by a few years, it's probably not going to just stop. And major countries appear to be looking into adopting carbon taxes, most importantly China and the US of A -- even Alberta, known as Texas-North, is looking at them seriously now with a left-leaning gubment in place. That's probably the nail in the coffin. Even the Saudis, apparently, see the end for oil in sight, hence the whole oversupply thing now to slow the transition down or sell it while it lasts.

 

[PeeluckyDuckee]

I'm hearing nowadays that because oil is so cheap, solar and other renewables are suddenly dead -- like everyone will just chuck them in the garbage and start over later.

I think we're at the point where renewables are advanced enough that they make somewhat economical sense, and switching over to them completely in the next century is feasible. So... while oil might slow it down by a few years, it's probably not going to just stop. And major countries appear to be looking into adopting carbon taxes, most importantly China and the US of A -- even Alberta, known as Texas-North, is looking at them seriously now with a left-leaning gubment in place. That's probably the nail in the coffin. Even the Saudis, apparently, see the end for oil in sight, hence the whole oversupply thing now to slow the transition down or sell it while it lasts.

Can the whole world infrastructure transition out of oil efficiently and in a timely manner for oil not to be of relevance? Seems far reaching. What kind of time span are we talking about here?

 

[jpiniero]

Can the whole world infrastructure transition out of oil efficiently and in a timely manner for oil not to be of relevance? Seems far reaching. What kind of time span are we talking about here?

Wouldn't it be ironic if people used oil to generate the electricity to charge their Teslas?

 

[Imp]

Can the whole world infrastructure transition out of oil efficiently and in a timely manner for oil not to be of relevance? Seems far reaching. What kind of time span are we talking about here?

Absolutely not. I, and everyone else, enjoys their petroleum based asphalt roads, petroleum based tires that support their petroleum encased vehicles that deliver their petroleum based goods. Right now, I'm writing this on my cheap petroleum based keyboard and will hit send using my petroleum based mouse while reading this on my petroleum shelled monitor powered using petroleum based wires.

But my main point is that I think we're now heading away from being overly dependent on oil and won't stop because of a sudden drop in oil prices. It'll probably take decades and we will definitely still use products based off of petroleum for centuries to come though.

Wouldn't it be ironic if people used oil to generate the electricity to charge their Teslas?

Depending on where you live, chances are you charge it using coal...

Changing topics... what's the word on the next Fed rate hike? Supposedly, it's one and done, but Fed is "monitoring closely" or something.

 

[jpiniero]

But my main point is that I think we're now heading away from being overly dependent on oil and won't stop because of a sudden drop in oil prices. It'll probably take decades and we will definitely still use products based off of petroleum for centuries to come though.

What I was getting at was that the majority of oil is used as gas for cars and trucks. Nothing else really comes close. So it's really dependent on whether electric cars really gain any kind of real share (beyond luxury vehicles) and that's tough to tell. The US obviously doesn't have the capacity right now to be able to charge electric vehicles if everyone switched all at once so where the source it comes from is also still up in the air.

 

[Imp]

What I was getting at was that the majority of oil is used as gas for cars and trucks. Nothing else really comes close. So it's really dependent on whether electric cars really gain any kind of real share (beyond luxury vehicles) and that's tough to tell. The US obviously doesn't have the capacity right now to be able to charge electric vehicles if everyone switched all at once so where the source it comes from is also still up in the air.

I can see that... If oil becomes cheaper than electricity, people might buy portable gasoline generators just to charge their car. And there will probably be a spat of carbon monoxide poisoning deaths.

However, if one company were to standardize a battery and mounting connection, it would be much simpler --- the USB or Microsoft of the battery world. User swap-able, interchangeable batteries.

For power, you could "force" people to charge only during off-peak hours or at night -- not sure if there is adequate capacity at night though. For example, make peak hours exorbitantly expensive, off-peak hours insanely cheap, standardize a separately metered outlet that batteries will only work with, force battery logic boards to only charge at night, etc. Yes, people will develop cracks, but design the system well enough and it might not be too bad.

I'll give you a shout when that actually happens...

 

[Artdeco]

We are massively dependent on oil, and will be for the foreseeable future, every item you look at was derived from, produced with and or transported in one way or another by petroleum products.

Many utilities produce electricity using natural gas, and the vast majority of hydrogen is derived from petroleum products. The Middle East is playing a long game with prices.

 

[sm625]

The Middle East is playing a long game with prices.

It is really difficult to see any sort of long game in what they are doing. With conventional crude oil production basically flat for the last 10 years despite massive epic unprecedented investment in the sector, it is clear that scarcity will be the long term trend.

(conventional crude is the blue area on this graph)


Global oil production is way way below the projections from 20 years ago. It is one of the reasons global economic growth has been so disappointing. If OPEC were truly playing a long game they wouldnt be trying to crush shale oil by flooding the market with cheap crude. They would simply cut their production and let the shale oil boom burn itself out. It would have burned itself out by 2017 if oil prices were left at $100 a barrel. But they are so worried about popular uprisings that they simply cannot afford to cut exports at all, so it has been a giant race to the bottom. Ironically, by not even attempting to hold prices up, they may very well foment the sort of uprisings that they are trying to avoid. OPEC cannot keep its populations pacified on $20 oil, and we may very well be heading there. They will have to cut production. But who knows, maybe riling up their populations is part of their plan. Maybe they are hoping they can control the backlash and focus it all onto the west, and keep their palaces intact. If they can actually pull that off then they are geniuses.

 

[sm625]

2015-12-07      17.0 chg  -11.6, score:    5.4
2015-12-08      -3.3 chg  -20.3, score:  -23.6
2015-12-09       5.8 chg    9.1, score:   14.9
2015-12-10      -0.6 chg   -6.3, score:   -6.9
2015-12-11      -0.1 chg    0.5, score:    0.4
2015-12-14       0.7 chg    0.8, score:    1.5
2015-12-15      -8.5 chg   -9.2, score:  -17.8
2015-12-16     -15.2 chg   -6.7, score:  -21.9
2015-12-17       0.3 chg   15.6, score:   15.9
2015-12-18      19.5 chg   19.1, score:   38.6
2015-12-21      36.3 chg   16.8, score:   53.1 BUYIF
2015-12-22      42.0 chg    5.7, score:   47.6 BUY

Looks like Santa is coming after all.

 

[Artdeco]

Chipotle getting beat up, maybe a bit further down till the bottom...

 

[Imp]

Ummm... WTI is slightly above Brent? That doesn't seem right.

It apparently happened back in 2010.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Made some nice coin with the 20% short covering rally in Oasis Petroleum.

 

[sm625]

Wow what a year. QQQ calls up huge today. Thank you Santa. No more trades this year.