***Official*** 2015 Stock Market Thread

[ponyo]

Am I supposed to be impressed?

The clone market (black market) is vast for most products sold in China, up to and including a fake iPhone store! Obviously the clone market is not tracked as knockoffs are "illegal" (wink, wink, nod, nod), but Ill bet 20M pales in comparison.

That being said, there might have been some disgruntled users of said knockoffs who decided so save up some yuan and buy the real thing (or at least what they think is the real thing).

ps. ADXS will return far superior returns than AAPL will in 2015.

You might want to take a peek at Mobile Devices & Gadgets forum on this site. It's good to keep up with the latest tech and news on important growth sector so it doesn't come as a surprise.

ADXS? It could be the greatest company or the worst pump and dump. I don't care at all. I've zero interest and don't even want to look up the symbol because I don't want it to bump off any of the recent legitimate quote searches. But for someone who's so sure ADXS is going to have far superior return, your actions don't back it up. 100 shares of sub $10 stock. Really? That's some conviction.

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

I'll give you an example of a trade I've got going right now. As you might have noticed, I've been hammering away on QQQ, making extremely bearish calls, etc. I bought some 102 puts yesterday for 20 cents. Now they are worth $1. So that is a 5x gain on a move from $104 to just $101. If it were to drop to $100 that gain becomes 10x. So it only takes a 4% move to yield a 10x gain, if your timeframe is 1 week.

As another example, take Ford. It is trading at around $14.50. $14 weekly puts are just 5 cents. If Ford takes a 3 day nosedive similar to the one it took a few months ago, those options would easily be worth 10 times, maybe even 20x. There has actually been four 3-day moves in the last year that have been big enough to yield those kinds of returns. It's all about the timing.

luck

Try doing that for 10 years like all those in front of you.

The only people that can pull this shit off are Wall Streeters that cheat. You think the Samsung buying BBRY rumors were an accident?

 

[ponyo]

That's funny, I see people with iPhones and wonder why people choose an inferior product. I know two companies that make better smartphones for the needs of most people. Still don't know why anyone over 40 has an iPhone.

That's the same thing I say with Blackberry. I haven't seen a Blackberry user in wild in a year or two. I don't know why Blackberry still exist when it's so inferior to iPhone and Android phones.

 

[FelixDeCat]

ADXS? It could be the greatest company or the worst pump and dump. I don't care at all. I've zero interest and don't even want to look up the symbol because I don't want it to bump off any of the recent legitimate quote searches. But for someone who's so sure ADXS is going to have far superior return, your actions don't back it up. 100 shares of sub $10 stock. Really? That's some conviction.

ADXS up 10% premarket

AAPL up 7.60% pre
market

Honestly ADXS has run up so far, so fast (minus the recent 50% hiccup), it does have some gains to consolidate. The stock is now up 30%+ in 48 hours. I might consider call options. It was $13+ before the
hiccup.

Edit: sold the 100 shares now long 5 feb calls

 

[IHateMyJob2004]

That's the same thing I say with Blackberry. I haven't seen a Blackberry user in wild in a year or two. I don't know why Blackberry still exist when it's so inferior to iPhone and Android phones.

Have you used one recently? Unless you play games, you are making concrete statements based on assumptions.

I left Android and got a BB Z10. I can not fathom ever wanting to go back to Android for my needs. I don't play games. I need a running app, a music app and a universal inbox. Android has a better running app (Run Keeper) but the one for B is only missing cloud storage which is not a big problem. But BB10 has a superior stock MP3 player, keyboard and unified inbox compared to anything Android offers (even pay for apps).

 

[PimpJuice]

Have you used one recently? Unless you play games, you are making concrete statements based on assumptions.

I left Android and got a BB Z10. I can not fathom ever wanting to go back to Android for my needs. I don't play games. I need a running app, a music app and a universal inbox. Android has a better running app (Run Keeper) but the one for B is only missing cloud storage which is not a big problem. But BB10 has a superior stock MP3 player, keyboard and unified inbox compared to anything Android offers (even pay for apps).

keyboard, mp3 player and unified inbox are not unique features, and hardly enough to make up for everything else including lack of apps and ecosystem. I actually see more Windows phone users than blackberry users.

I've never had issues with my android keyboard, mp3 player or inbox and I'm a professionally working software developer. If those are your arguments to switch to BB, good luck to you.

 

[ghost recon88]

What a nose dive this afternoon Up 1.5% one day, down .7% the next, up 1.2% the next, down 1.5% the next. Wonder if mutual and index funds in Europe and Asia are a better bet these days than the US market?

 

[Hugo Drax]

ADXS up 10% premarket

AAPL up 7.60% pre
market

Honestly ADXS has run up so far, so fast (minus the recent 50% hiccup), it does have some gains to consolidate. The stock is now up 30%+ in 48 hours. I might consider call options. It was $13+ before the
hiccup.

Edit: sold the 100 shares now long 5 feb calls

What was the IV on those calls?

 

[JEDI]

oil dropped a few cents below their 52wk low of 44.xx.
surprised that once the support lvl was breached that its didn't nose dive to $42.

oil was in a free fall from $75 to 44. then bounced between 50 and 44 for the past 3 weeks. and now just barely hit a new 52 wk low.

but what does that mean? the bottom is within 5%? somewhere between 41 and 44?

 

[Imp]

Just got on the interwebs a few minutes today... No idea what happened, but something went down. Oil down to almost $44 (WTI) and CAD$ is now about $0.7990 US.

Oh, and that turd COS is now down to the low $7 range. I'm almost at the point where a 10% drop means nothing because of how little my position's worth.

 

[holden j caufield]

if Apple didn't post tremendous news, this day would've been another ~300+ slide. Pretty crazy numbers they posted.

 

[Imp]

So.... Canada's job numbers in 2014. A 30% difference from one estimate to the other.

Employment gains last year were 121,000 – or a third lower than the originally estimated increase of 186,000.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...ember-with-statscan-revision/article22672015/

Too bad I didn't go all into USD this time last year like I was telling myself to. Wow, it's going to get bad.

 

[sm625]

so when qqq was at $104, you bought puts at a $102 strike price for .20.
now that it's at 101 you gain $1. (102-101 = 1).
you gain 1 - .20 = .80

is 10x the point where you usually sell?

Once a trade is deep in the money, I will sell when the short term indicators change. Rarely would I hold all the way until 10x gains. The only time I would do that is if the chart is printing red candle after red candle after red candle. Take for example, May 6th 2010, the day of the flash crash. On that day there were basically no retracements. It was just down down down all day until the bottom fell out. We get days like that about half a dozen times a year (minus the crash at the end). Usually what happens is I'm sitting on 3-4x gains and then the market breaks an intraday trendline, which signals a retracement is coming. If I'm dealing with options that are expiring in 2 days anyway, then I would close at that point. If I have monthly options then I would wait for a signal on a longer timeframe.

I dont focus too much on exit timing because I think I'm pretty good at finding entry points. For example what I'm looking for today is for SPY to rally all the way to 204.50. If that happens it would be an excellent entry point (though not for this week's options because there isnt enough time. But I would buy next week's puts if SPY looks like it is going to close at that level.)

 

[Nerva]

ADXS up 10% premarket

AAPL up 7.60% pre
market

Honestly ADXS has run up so far, so fast (minus the recent 50% hiccup), it does have some gains to consolidate. The stock is now up 30%+ in 48 hours. I might consider call options. It was $13+ before the
hiccup.

Edit: sold the 100 shares now long 5 feb calls

why do you own this thing? it has no revenue, ebitda, or anything that can be based on fundamentals. It is a story stock and in the biotech/pharma world, and for every hundred great stories, 1 or 2 actually pan out. AAPL can do at least 10% EPS growth per year. ADXS on a risk/beta adjusted basis is a piece of shit and is akin to playing roulette or craps.

 

[JEDI]

oil dropped a few cents below their 52wk low of 44.xx.
surprised that once the support lvl was breached that its didn't nose dive to $42.

oil was in a free fall from $75 to 44. then bounced between 50 and 44 for the past 3 weeks. and now just barely hit a new 52 wk low.

but what does that mean? the bottom is within 5%? somewhere between 41 and 44?

And oil has dipped into $43 territory.
next stop $41?


edit:
And Dryships dropped 10% today. finally, stock price catching up w/reality.
at $0.86/share now

 

[Imp]

CAD$ dropped further to US$ 0.7950... If only COS weren't balancing out my winnings.

 

[Imp]

Sell, Mortimer, Sell!

CAD$ down to US$0.7907 right now.

 

[sm625]

luck

Try doing that for 10 years like all those in front of you.

The only people that can pull this shit off are Wall Streeters that cheat.

I dont agree with it being luck. Take a look at this chart, and also note the price target of 204.50 I had made in an earlier post:

It's not luck or an accident that there have been two mini rallies today that both trend right towards that end-of-day price target of 204.50 (204.33 actually, I rounded needlessly). This sort of thing happens all the time. The big trading houses all have price targets that they follow. If you look at a daily chart you can see quite clearly there is a trendline that intersect 204.33 for today. They are using their HFT machines to steer the market to that point. Will it hit it? Who knows. But if it does it will very likely bounce hard off it. That's my entry point. I'm always looking for them.

Edit 3:30pm: To further illustrate my point let me add a 2nd chart which shows two more mini rallies that aim directly towards that magic 204.33 mark. (Actually I'm thinking it might be 204.25 now.)

 

[Imp]

Ah, f*cking broker.

Was checking my prices and saw that COS was down to $0 and I had a 100% loss -- almost had a heart attack. Should just be a glitch because there's no news they went bankrupt and a more reasonable price appears when I look the price up. Oh, and dividend cut almost confirmed to a negligible amount. Just stay alive, you POS... Until oil goes back in like a decade.

Edit: Oh, it's an official trading halt. Unless they're declaring bankruptcy, it's probably to announce a dividend cut.... So, CAD$ 3 here we come then -- now still at $6.50.

 

[Hugo Drax]

http://business.financialpost.com/2...6-its-biggest-cut-since-1998/?__lsa=3ff4-3d75


86% dividend cut.

 

[Imp]

http://business.financialpost.com/2...6-its-biggest-cut-since-1998/?__lsa=3ff4-3d75


86% dividend cut.

Yep... $0.05 per quarter now down from the $0.20/quarter that killed the stock like 20% in a day. Can't wait until tomorrow!

CAD$ 5? Trading stopped around 3pm at CAD$ 6.50-ish.

 

[JEDI]

Yep... $0.05 per quarter now down from the $0.20/quarter that killed the stock like 20% in a day. Can't wait until tomorrow!

CAD$ 5? Trading stopped around 3pm at CAD$ 6.50-ish.

why didn't u sell last year when u saw the writing on the wall?

 

[Imp]

I'd lost so much at that point that I was set on holding it until it went back up... even if it would take a decade. And I was hoping it had bled off so much that it would stop falling.

Guess not. Oh well, I'm still ahead with everything else.

 

[JEDI]

I'd lost so much at that point that I was set on holding it until it went back up... even if it would take a decade. And I was hoping it had bled off so much that it would stop falling.

Guess not. Oh well, I'm still ahead with everything else.

you could have sold last Dec and harvest the tax lost.
and re-bought 30days later.

hm.. or they dont have that up north?

 

[Hugo Drax]

I'd lost so much at that point that I was set on holding it until it went back up... even if it would take a decade. And I was hoping it had bled off so much that it would stop falling.

Guess not. Oh well, I'm still ahead with everything else.

You still have a lot to learn when it comes to trading. The way to steady returns is to cut your losses quickly and recognize a bad trade, and move on to a new trade that can make up for the losses and provide a profit.

You have to learn how to take losses and move on, ie: know when to fold em, know when to hold em. Protect your bankroll at all times.