**Official 2016 NFL Conference Championship Weekend!** (Balls are INFLATED this time)

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SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
Not moot, purely a stat thing. Check out the stats on the Pat's losses for yourself. I was blown away a couple years ago when I read that stat. It helped me evolve on how I viewed what Belichick and Brady have been doing.

We're here talking about this incredible Pats loss, ESPN had headlines that the Dynasty is over, like it was a one sided domination, when in fact they lost because a kicker missed an extra point. That makes it suck even more for us Pats fans. But, it was a 2 point loss, nonetheless. People should pump the brakes. It's actually incredible the parades people are throwing because of this loss.

Now the Panthers put a whooping on the Cards.

edit: The more I think about it the more I'm proud of what they did. They struggled though an injury ravished season with the distraction of the offseason (deflategate). And were close to making the SuperBowl.
They were only without the best TE in the league for 1 game, calm down. In fact, the only reason the game was extended as long as it was yesterday was because of the best TE in the league. Not to mention, Brady was a top 3 QB in the league this year and just set the record for most TDs under pressure. They had arguably the best slot receiver/possession receiver in the league for the playoffs in Edelman. The secondary was top 3 graded in the league (PFF) and their pass rush was #2 (DVOA Defensive Line) in the league. Not to mention James White was outperforming Dion Lewis in the passing game so don't cry about losing Dion either:
5. James White averaged 2.07 yards per route run this season. That’s actually better than Dion Lewis, the man he replaced as New England’s pass-catching running back threat. Lewis averaged 2.01 yards per route run.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/23/fantasy-10-stats-to-know-for-championship-weekend/

Looking at IR, the only player worth a dam that the Pats lost was OL Ryan Wendell, but he excels at run blocking and the Pats hardly run the ball so not a big deal for their scheme. Dominique Easley, while a decent defender and pass rusher only played 200 snaps so wasn't the end of the world for them and they're already #2 in pass rushing so his loss was minimal. RB Blount was nothing special and easily replaced by an aging SJax. LaFail and Aaron Dobson are awful talents and helped the team by not being on the field vs playing. Hence the only impact injuries for the entire season were losing Edelman for 7 games, Amendola for 2 and Gronk for 1.

Summary: Go play your violin elsewhere, teams would kill for those kinds of metrics (and replacements playing as well or better as injured ones) and it's a reason Vegas had them favored IN Denver. Your "injury ravished" excuse is pure bullshit. The Pats were practically at full strength against Denver and got their asses whipped minus Gronk's dominant performance.
 
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Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,266
9,336
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Wasn't able to watch the Cards-Panthers game. Our local sports talk radio host on Saturday was talking about the game and said he believes Palmer has some kind of mental block about playoff games and would bet the Panthers even if the spread was 20 points. He was sure Palmer would play terribly.

Is that how it went down?

Palmer incurred an injury to the index finger of his throwing hand on Dec 20th. That finger is taped. The last two games, his accuracy has been off, with throws he otherwise usually makes consistently sailing high. Here's an article on it.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
1,540
126
Isn't that what everyone said about Peyton's favored Broncos vs Seattle and then the defense whooped Peyton? This could be the reverse of that, Carolina favored by 4~ already.

SP33, even in victory against the Pats, the Denver offense didn't look good.
 

Childs

Lifer
Jul 9, 2000
11,450
7
81
Not moot, purely a stat thing. Check out the stats on the Pat's losses for yourself. I was blown away a couple years ago when I read that stat. It helped me evolve on how I viewed what Belichick and Brady have been doing.

I think Seattle has only lost by more than 7 once in the last 5 years, and it was this year to GB by 10. Otherwise the most they lose by is 7, which is impressive considering the holes they dig themselves in. There are few teams that you feel can come back from any deficit, and the Patriots are one of them. The Patriots would have kept it close against Carolina, if not outright won. Although I'm not sure what the one thing Belichick would take away from Carolina since nothing really stands out. He'd come up with something though. It would probably be a shootout.

Even though Denver is in the Super Bowl, they just dont look champion level good on offense. And this seems irrational, but aside from the Texans, I think any of the AFC playoff teams would do better than Denver in the Super Bowl against Carolina. It will probably take 30+ points to beat them, and I dont see how Denver is going to get those points. The defense will have to score a couple times or get turnovers in Panther territory to keep it close.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,805
29,556
146
I think Seattle has only lost by more than 7 once in the last 5 years, and it was this year to GB by 10. Otherwise the most they lose by is 7, which is impressive considering the holes they dig themselves in. There are few teams that you feel can come back from any deficit, and the Patriots are one of them. The Patriots would have kept it close against Carolina, if not outright won. Although I'm not sure what the one thing Belichick would take away from Carolina since nothing really stands out. He'd come up with something though. It would probably be a shootout.

Even though Denver is in the Super Bowl, they just dont look champion level good on offense. And this seems irrational, but aside from the Texans, I think any of the AFC playoff teams would do better than Denver in the Super Bowl against Carolina. It will probably take 30+ points to beat them, and I dont see how Denver is going to get those points. The defense will have to score a couple times or get turnovers in Panther territory to keep it close.

I don't think Denver needs 30. I think their D is good enough to contain Cam behind the line of scrimmage and bottle up his average, at best, targets that are not named Greg Olsen.

The Denver D pretty well took out a very good Brady-Gronk offense, that also has better slant targets than Carolina.

Now, that sounds a little easier against a guy like Brady that can't run and completely depends on a secure pocket to maintain consistency throughout a game (imagine giving up the space that allowed Brady to bust a few runs, including that 12 yard dasher--against a guy like Cam Newton), but I don't think it would take too much of a change to apply that to Cam Newton.

I think he has improved so much with his throwing game because he is used to having the space to run. I think if you just plug those gaps and pressure him enough around the edge, he won't have the confidence to assume there is an open running lane, somewhere, if he can't make that throw. You don't want to rush him as much as you did Brady, but you want to make Cam think that he isn't going to be able to work beyond the line of scrimmage. And you have to do that early.

Double up Olsen on every shotgun play and don't let him bust out 15 yards and more on the snap.

NOW: Denver being able to score more than ~7 against this Carolina squad....hoo boy I just don't see a lot of light at the end of that tunnel.
 
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11thHour

Senior member
Feb 20, 2004
796
1
0
I had no idea Cam Newton had gotten that good. He carved up Arizona with his look-offs, his precision passing, and his running. Overall he was brilliant. Dumb jock not found.
 

Childs

Lifer
Jul 9, 2000
11,450
7
81
I don't think Denver needs 30. I think their D is good enough to contain Cam behind the line of scrimmage and bottle up his average, at best, targets that are not named Greg Olsen.

The Denver D pretty well took out a very good Brady-Gronk offense, that also has better slant targets than Carolina.

Now, that sounds a little easier against a guy like Brady that can't run and completely depends on a secure pocket to maintain consistency throughout a game (imagine giving up the space that allowed Brady to bust a few runs, including that 12 yard dasher--against a guy like Cam Newton), but I don't think it would take too much of a change to apply that to Cam Newton.

I think he has improved so much with his throwing game because he is used to having the space to run. I think if you just plug those gaps and pressure him enough around the edge, he won't have the confidence to assume there is an open running lane, somewhere, if he can't make that throw. You don't want to rush him as much as you did Brady, but you want to make Cam think that he isn't going to be able to work beyond the line of scrimmage. And you have to do that early.

Double up Olsen on every shotgun play and don't let him bust out 15 yards and more on the snap.

NOW: Denver being able to score more than ~7 against this Carolina squad....hoo boy I just don't see a lot of light at the end of that tunnel.

Cam's running ability is a serious threat though, and when a QB can run it screws up what a defense normally would do. While Carolina's receiving options dont look that impressive outside of Olson, they make a lot of plays. Like who they heck is Corey Brown? He spreads the ball around well, so there really isnt one guy to focus on. And he sits back there so long they dont need to be great, just continue on their routes and they eventually get open. It'll be interesting to see how Carolina's O line deals with the speed rushing of Denver, but again, once he starts running it kinda kills the pass rush.

One thing Denver can do is slow the game down and reduce the number of possessions, but they would need to be able to run the ball. Its just a tall order for Denver, but you never know. In theory they should be able to do whatever Atlanta did since Denver has a superior defense.
 

glenn1

Lifer
Sep 6, 2000
25,383
1,013
126
I don't think Denver needs 30. I think their D is good enough to contain Cam behind the line of scrimmage and bottle up his average, at best, targets that are not named Greg Olsen.

The Denver D pretty well took out a very good Brady-Gronk offense, that also has better slant targets than Carolina.

Now, that sounds a little easier against a guy like Brady that can't run and completely depends on a secure pocket to maintain consistency throughout a game (imagine giving up the space that allowed Brady to bust a few runs, including that 12 yard dasher--against a guy like Cam Newton), but I don't think it would take too much of a change to apply that to Cam Newton.

I think he has improved so much with his throwing game because he is used to having the space to run. I think if you just plug those gaps and pressure him enough around the edge, he won't have the confidence to assume there is an open running lane, somewhere, if he can't make that throw. You don't want to rush him as much as you did Brady, but you want to make Cam think that he isn't going to be able to work beyond the line of scrimmage. And you have to do that early.

Double up Olsen on every shotgun play and don't let him bust out 15 yards and more on the snap.

NOW: Denver being able to score more than ~7 against this Carolina squad....hoo boy I just don't see a lot of light at the end of that tunnel.

Haven't really seen anyone express any doubts about the quality of the Denver defense; their offense however is a different story. If they can keep it a low scoring game Denver has a good chance, if Carolina comes anywhere near their post-season average of 40 PPG then I doubt Denver has much of a chance at all. The Broncos have only scored 30 or more twice this season, and 20 or less in almost half their regular season games (7).

In contrast, the Panthers have scored 30+ in half their regular season games and less than 20 only once (the ATL loss). Since Thanksgiving they've been averaging over 36PPG. The Bronocs haven't scored that much in ANY of their games this year including preseason.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
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They were only without the best TE in the league for 1 game, calm down. In fact, the only reason the game was extended as long as it was yesterday was because of the best TE in the league. Not to mention, Brady was a top 3 QB in the league this year and just set the record for most TDs under pressure. They had arguably the best slot receiver/possession receiver in the league for the playoffs in Edelman. The secondary was top 3 graded in the league (PFF) and their pass rush was #2 (DVOA Defensive Line) in the league. Not to mention James White was outperforming Dion Lewis in the passing game so don't cry about losing Dion either:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/23/fantasy-10-stats-to-know-for-championship-weekend/

Looking at IR, the only player worth a dam that the Pats lost was OL Ryan Wendell, but he excels at run blocking and the Pats hardly run the ball so not a big deal for their scheme. Dominique Easley, while a decent defender and pass rusher only played 200 snaps so wasn't the end of the world for them and they're already #2 in pass rushing so his loss was minimal. RB Blount was nothing special and easily replaced by an aging SJax. LaFail and Aaron Dobson are awful talents and helped the team by not being on the field vs playing. Hence the only impact injuries for the entire season were losing Edelman for 7 games, Amendola for 2 and Gronk for 1.

Summary: Go play your violin elsewhere, teams would kill for those kinds of metrics (and replacements playing as well or better as injured ones) and it's a reason Vegas had them favored IN Denver. Your "injury ravished" excuse is pure bullshit. The Pats were practically at full strength against Denver and got their asses whipped minus Gronk's dominant performance.

You have to be careful how you use your metrics. Ex. there is no way anyone who watched both White and Lewis play would say White outperformed Lewis anywhere. Lewis is an amazing talent and jumps off the screen when you watch him play. He beat out White in preseason and Lewis will be the starter if he returns healthy and to form next year. I guarantee it. btw 2.07 yards per pass play is pretty bad.

As to injuries, you are missing a bunch of them. Nate Solder was their 1st round draft pick, their best lineman and their LT. When he went down they had to reshuffle their line. Wendell was undersized but a good veteran lineman, losing him forced them to shuffle the line more. Tre Jackson who started at right Guard was out for the game as well. He is one of their better run blockers. So, they shuffled their line some more. So, the Patriots didn't run because they don't, they didn't run because they couldn't.
 

Oyeve

Lifer
Oct 18, 1999
21,939
838
126
Wasn't able to watch the Cards-Panthers game. Our local sports talk radio host on Saturday was talking about the game and said he believes Palmer has some kind of mental block about playoff games and would bet the Panthers even if the spread was 20 points. He was sure Palmer would play terribly.

Is that how it went down?

pretty much.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Please. It'll be an unending stream of how this call or that call was or wasn't made.

I thought the Ref's actually did a great job, they called the obvious infractions and let the "tick-tack" variety go. If anything the Pat's got some calls during the game but replay's showed them to be correct.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
If the Pats would have won, there is no way they would have gotten their asses kicked. The Pats don't lose many games by more than a touchdown.

Yep none, it's scientifically impossible. There's no room for any doubt. Whatsoever.

Yet you laugh at Zin for basically saying "any given sunday" that Denver could win.

What a maroon.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
Yep none, it's scientifically impossible. There's no room for any doubt. Whatsoever.

Yet you laugh at Zin for basically saying "any given sunday" that Denver could win.

What a maroon.

I don't think people thought Wade Phillips was as good as he is, they damm sure do now. The pounding Brady took yesterday had him in "let me get rid of this fucking thing" mode and I can't say I blame him one bit. Sadly, on the 2-point conversion try Gronk was wide-open but Brady was locked on Edeleman and didn't have time to survey the end-zone as he was about to get clobbered yet again. Would have been a fun deal to have those two defenses play in OT yesterday.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
I thought the Ref's actually did a great job, they called the obvious infractions and let the "tick-tack" variety go. If anything the Pat's got some calls during the game but replay's showed them to be correct.

I agree, but when you're dealing with an illogical rabid fan, well, logic goes out the window.

I don't think people thought Wade Phillips was as good as he is, they damm sure do now. The pounding Brady took yesterday had him in "let me get rid of this fucking thing" mode and I can't say I blame him one bit. Sadly, on the 2-point conversion try Gronk was wide-open but Brady was locked on Edeleman and didn't have time to survey the end-zone as he was about to get clobbered yet again. Would have been a fun deal to have those two defenses play in OT yesterday.

Wade is pretty good as a coordinator, I think people just give him a bad wrap for his most recent tenures as HC, which he's only so-so at. It also doesn't hurt to have that talent pool to work with.
 
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Ken g6

Programming Moderator, Elite Member
Moderator
Dec 11, 1999
16,282
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SP33, even in victory against the Pats, the Denver offense didn't look good.
They looked better than they did against the Steelers. Manning even made at least one big play downfield - to Sanders, I think.

Also, the goal for this game was to keep the offensive plays "safe", and rely on the defense. If the score goes pear-shaped (from the Broncos' perspective), I expect more "interesting" plays, and I expect more points to be scored. I just don't know which side will do the scoring!
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
They looked better than they did against the Steelers. Manning even made at least one big play downfield - to Sanders, I think.

Also, the goal for this game was to keep the offensive plays "safe", and rely on the defense. If the score goes pear-shaped (from the Broncos' perspective), I expect more "interesting" plays, and I expect more points to be scored. I just don't know which side will do the scoring!

The Patriots have a pretty good defense themselves as evidenced by Denver's inability to move the ball in the second half and some big sacks on Manning. I don't know a lot about Carolina but someone needs to wake up Thomas for the SB, they gave him a huge contract and he was a complete non-factor yesterday.
 

TheSlamma

Diamond Member
Sep 6, 2005
7,625
5
81
The Patriots have a pretty good defense themselves as evidenced by Denver's inability to move the ball in the second half and some big sacks on Manning. I don't know a lot about Carolina but someone needs to wake up Thomas for the SB, they gave him a huge contract and he was a complete non-factor yesterday.
Forcing passes to Thomas is what will lose that game just like it almost did with Pittsburgh, he had the most dropped passes in the league this season too.
 

Phoenix86

Lifer
May 21, 2003
14,643
9
81
They looked better than they did against the Steelers. Manning even made at least one big play downfield - to Sanders, I think.

Also, the goal for this game was to keep the offensive plays "safe", and rely on the defense. If the score goes pear-shaped (from the Broncos' perspective), I expect more "interesting" plays, and I expect more points to be scored. I just don't know which side will do the scoring!

The Sanders long ball wasn't exactly the pinnacle of a perfect pass, it was basically a jump ball. He looked much better in the 2x yard passes.

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/20160...ameinfo|contentId:0ap3000000627710&tab=videos

Second pass.
 

SP33Demon

Lifer
Jun 22, 2001
27,929
142
106
You have to be careful how you use your metrics. Ex. there is no way anyone who watched both White and Lewis play would say White outperformed Lewis anywhere. Lewis is an amazing talent and jumps off the screen when you watch him play. He beat out White in preseason and Lewis will be the starter if he returns healthy and to form next year. I guarantee it. btw 2.07 yards per pass play is pretty bad.

As to injuries, you are missing a bunch of them. Nate Solder was their 1st round draft pick, their best lineman and their LT. When he went down they had to reshuffle their line. Wendell was undersized but a good veteran lineman, losing him forced them to shuffle the line more. Tre Jackson who started at right Guard was out for the game as well. He is one of their better run blockers. So, they shuffled their line some more. So, the Patriots didn't run because they don't, they didn't run because they couldn't.
I agree that Dion Lewis is a huge uprade, but only at rushing talent (#1 in elusive rating) However, from a passing production standpoint the Pats actually got better slightly better production out of White. All Dion Lewis adds is a little more mystery of whether the Pats will throw 40 times vs 55. And it's not 2.07 per pass play, it's per route run. That includes routes that he runs where he's not targeted. 2+ is actually a decent number for that metric.

Nate Solder rated at 50.0 over 148 snaps which is pure garbage and well below replacement level, he was having a horrid season pass blocking at around 40 which is worse than turnstile-status. His run blocking of 70 is slightly above NFL average. Could he have improved? Maybe, but there's no guarantee.

Wendell, like I said was a solid run blocker but below average in PP.

Tre Jackson was rated at 50.1 because he absolutely tanked the last 4 games of the season for some reason (injury most likely). He was at 66.1 before that which is around NFL average and actually above average in run blocking, agreed.

So what does all of this mean? The Pats lost 3 good run blockers who sucked at pass protection, and they lost a great rushing back in Dion Lewis. This means that Brady will have to pass 10-15 times more per game to the best TE or possession receiver in the league or a decent replacement pass catching RB out of the backfield. It doesn't mean their pass protection improves at all. In fact, Denver is known for shutting down the run if you check the stats, so it wouldn't have mattered. It probably wouldve helped Brady not get hit an NFL 2015-16 record 20 times, however we know that Belichick rarely runs against good run-stopping teams (like the NYJ both times, Denver 1st game) and goes pass heavy. So I doubt Belichick's gameplan changed much by not having as strong a run game because Denver has shut down much better run games than NE when at full strength (like Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls, Hill/Bernard, Forsett, etc).

Summary: The Pats losing 3 good run blockers and a good running back is par for the course if you look around the league. They were pretty much at full strength for the Denver game and having 3 good run blockers against the #1 run stopping team means nothing when other teams with better run blocking (and overall better RBs than Dion Lewis) failed against Denver. It wouldn't have changed the outcome unless the Pats were missing good pass protectors.
 

BUTCH1

Lifer
Jul 15, 2000
20,433
1,769
126
I agree that Dion Lewis is a huge uprade, but only at rushing talent (#1 in elusive rating) However, from a passing production standpoint the Pats actually got better slightly better production out of White. All Dion Lewis adds is a little more mystery of whether the Pats will throw 40 times vs 55. And it's not 2.07 per pass play, it's per route run. That includes routes that he runs where he's not targeted. 2+ is actually a decent number for that metric.

Nate Solder rated at 50.0 over 148 snaps which is pure garbage and well below replacement level, he was having a horrid season pass blocking at around 40 which is worse than turnstile-status. His run blocking of 70 is slightly above NFL average. Could he have improved? Maybe, but there's no guarantee.

Wendell, like I said was a solid run blocker but below average in PP.

Tre Jackson was rated at 50.1 because he absolutely tanked the last 4 games of the season for some reason (injury most likely). He was at 66.1 before that which is around NFL average and actually above average in run blocking, agreed.

So what does all of this mean? The Pats lost 3 good run blockers who sucked at pass protection, and they lost a great rushing back in Dion Lewis. This means that Brady will have to pass 10-15 times more per game to the best TE or possession receiver in the league or a decent replacement pass catching RB out of the backfield. It doesn't mean their pass protection improves at all. In fact, Denver is known for shutting down the run if you check the stats, so it wouldn't have mattered. It probably wouldve helped Brady not get hit an NFL 2015-16 record 20 times, however we know that Belichick rarely runs against good run-stopping teams (like the NYJ both times, Denver 1st game) and goes pass heavy. So I doubt Belichick's gameplan changed much by not having as strong a run game because Denver has shut down much better run games than NE when at full strength (like Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls, Hill/Bernard, Forsett, etc).

Summary: The Pats losing 3 good run blockers and a good running back is par for the course if you look around the league. They were pretty much at full strength for the Denver game and having 3 good run blockers against the #1 run stopping team means nothing when other teams with better run blocking (and overall better RBs than Dion Lewis) failed against Denver. It wouldn't have changed the outcome unless the Pats were missing good pass protectors.

I'd agree to all that but I was pissed when they let Vereen go off in FA, IMHO he catches a few of those balls White couldn't quite get to. Sure, Lewis was having a great season but there's a reason he was available, he's injury-prone. His season-ending ACL tear was a non-contact injury. If you go back to last year's SB there is no way the Pats mount those drives to get a lead without Vereen. Lewis is a tad quicker but neither him or White come close in ball-catching skills, one of SB catches was a one-handed grab, in heavy traffic. Kraft and BB sit and look at how they can save $$ and forget that the dude has been developing a trust and chemistry with Brady for the last 4 years, God forbid he had the balls to ask for the $$ he was worth.
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,805
29,556
146
I don't think people thought Wade Phillips was as good as he is, they damm sure do now. The pounding Brady took yesterday had him in "let me get rid of this fucking thing" mode and I can't say I blame him one bit. Sadly, on the 2-point conversion try Gronk was wide-open but Brady was locked on Edeleman and didn't have time to survey the end-zone as he was about to get clobbered yet again. Would have been a fun deal to have those two defenses play in OT yesterday.

Wade was always a great coordinator, that's why he got the HC job at the Cowboys and they still kept him way too long. Plenty of great coordinators are lousy head coaches, which is why they so often end up where they belong after failing at HC.

Then some are just lousy overall (Rob Ryan) and will continue to remain hired, somehow, but no one will ever think to let them snag a HC gig.
 

emperus

Diamond Member
Apr 6, 2012
7,782
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I agree that Dion Lewis is a huge uprade, but only at rushing talent (#1 in elusive rating) However, from a passing production standpoint the Pats actually got better slightly better production out of White. All Dion Lewis adds is a little more mystery of whether the Pats will throw 40 times vs 55. And it's not 2.07 per pass play, it's per route run. That includes routes that he runs where he's not targeted. 2+ is actually a decent number for that metric.

Nate Solder rated at 50.0 over 148 snaps which is pure garbage and well below replacement level, he was having a horrid season pass blocking at around 40 which is worse than turnstile-status. His run blocking of 70 is slightly above NFL average. Could he have improved? Maybe, but there's no guarantee.

Wendell, like I said was a solid run blocker but below average in PP.

Tre Jackson was rated at 50.1 because he absolutely tanked the last 4 games of the season for some reason (injury most likely). He was at 66.1 before that which is around NFL average and actually above average in run blocking, agreed.

So what does all of this mean? The Pats lost 3 good run blockers who sucked at pass protection, and they lost a great rushing back in Dion Lewis. This means that Brady will have to pass 10-15 times more per game to the best TE or possession receiver in the league or a decent replacement pass catching RB out of the backfield. It doesn't mean their pass protection improves at all. In fact, Denver is known for shutting down the run if you check the stats, so it wouldn't have mattered. It probably wouldve helped Brady not get hit an NFL 2015-16 record 20 times, however we know that Belichick rarely runs against good run-stopping teams (like the NYJ both times, Denver 1st game) and goes pass heavy. So I doubt Belichick's gameplan changed much by not having as strong a run game because Denver has shut down much better run games than NE when at full strength (like Deangelo Williams, Adrian Peterson, Thomas Rawls, Hill/Bernard, Forsett, etc).

Summary: The Pats losing 3 good run blockers and a good running back is par for the course if you look around the league. They were pretty much at full strength for the Denver game and having 3 good run blockers against the #1 run stopping team means nothing when other teams with better run blocking (and overall better RBs than Dion Lewis) failed against Denver. It wouldn't have changed the outcome unless the Pats were missing good pass protectors.

So, my background. Majored in Computer Engineering and Economics and minored in Math. I like numbers. But you use them entirely too much as a basis for your arguments. They are not linear like that esp. in Football. You have to marry them esp. with watching tape of those positions and how those players are used. Ex. Nate Solder could go one on one with the best Defensive lineman who is usually lined up there, allowing them to double, chip someone else. He may lose some of those battles, but without him you have to double that side as well, and/or shift another lineman into that position and have multiple players out of position, making the whole line worse. Again, it's not linear like you think it is. Again, I've never thought Nate Solder was a particularly great lineman, but it should tell you something about our line that he is not only our #1 lineman who guards Brady's blindside but that they also just picked up his option last year at 7 million a year.

It's a non starter to argue that the Pats didn't lose anything by losing Nate Solder and Wendell or to argue that losing Lewis wasn't a huge loss or to argue they were at full strength on the OL when they played Denver. It's just a non-starter. You should really watch some of the games, the dropoff is perceivable. I appreciate your attempted use of stats, but they're forcing your arguments to divorce from reality. You are basically trying to get me to prove to you that the sky is blue.
 
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