**Official 2016 NFL Conference Championship Weekend!** (Balls are INFLATED this time)

[SP33Demon]

So, my background. Majored in Computer Engineering and Economics and minored in Math. I like numbers. But you use them entirely too much as a basis for your arguments. They are not linear like that esp. in Football. You have to marry them esp. with watching tape of those positions and how those players are used. Ex. Nate Solder could go one on one with the best Defensive lineman who is usually lined up there, allowing them to double, chip someone else. He may lose some of those battles, but without him you have to double that side as well, and/or shift another lineman into that position and have multiple players out of position, making the whole line worse. Again, it's not linear like you think it is. Again, I've never thought Nate Solder was a particularly great lineman, but it should tell you something about our line that he is not only our #1 lineman who guards Brady's blindside but that they also just picked up his option last year at 7 million a year.

It's a non starter to argue that the Pats didn't lose anything by losing Nate Solder and Wendell or to argue that losing Lewis wasn't a huge loss or to argue they were at full strength on the OL when they played Denver. It's just a non-starter. You should really watch some of the games, the dropoff is perceivable. I appreciate your attempted use of stats, but they're forcing your arguments to divorce from reality. You are basically trying to get me to prove to you that the sky is blue.

My stats are derived by analysts who know more about the Pats than you and I combined and likely make more than you and I combined as their career. The metrics don't lie, they're broken down into a line graph for each game broken down by snaps, run blocking, and pass blocking per player.

Nate Solder simply sucked at pass pro this year before going down, there's no other way to say it. Maybe he did well in 2014 but I only care about 2015. The Pats didn't lose anything, in fact one of their lineman (Shaq Mason) even graded positive against Denver which is a miracle.

 

[emperus]

My stats are derived by analysts who know more about the Pats than you and I combined and likely make more than you and I combined as their career. The metrics don't lie, they're broken down into a line graph for each game broken down by snaps, run blocking, and pass blocking per player.

Nate Solder simply sucked at pass pro this year before going down, there's no other way to say it. Maybe he did well in 2014 but I only care about 2015. The Pats didn't lose anything, in fact one of their lineman (Shaq Mason) even graded positive against Denver which is a miracle.

The stats are never the issue. It's your use of them in your analysis. It's like a sack total, without understanding why a player got a sack (ex. a more dominant player was triple teamed yet still forced the QB out of the pocket into the arms of another lineman) that metric can be not all that useful. That is all I am saying. It's like your Metric for Shag Mason, how could he have a positive day when Brady was hit 23 times and sacked 4 times. Did he not get beat by Ware or Miller, or were the more dominant pass rushers facing other players, or did they devote extra attention to getting him help at the expense of the other players. Fyi, Mason is known to be a terrible pass blocker.

Where do the Patriots go from here? Stork, Andrews, Mason, and Jackson are all young players that can align in multiple roles on the line. Jackson is the more well-rounded prospect, but is still a sub-par lineman, while Mason is a quality run blocker, but a liability in the passing game. Andrews might be limited to center, while Stork is probably the best player of all.

http://www.patspulpit.com/2016/1/24...t-a-lot-and-this-is-the-state-of-the-patriots

Furthermore, I am saying that the coaches of the Patriots have more insight into the lineman than you and I and the people who create these stats. They understand the schemes they run, why a lineman has gotten beat more or why a RB whose stats say he has the higher average yards per route run in a pass first scheme is still the 2nd string back. Two things I will tell you, when Solder and Lewis get healthy (and back to form) they will be easily the starting and the #1 options at their respective positions in a pass first offense. So, if they aren't there, yes the Patriots believe there is a drop off in what they do. You are a gambling man, let's make a wager if that makes it more palatable.

Lastly, I'll trust the winning-est coach in NFL history in the midst of the salary cap era and team parity on how to build a team and his evaluation of players, rather than some data crunchers. Here is Belichick on using stat analysis.

“We do some of it, but I’m sure we do a lot less than other people do,” he added. “It’s not really my thing.” Belichick is smart enough to realize that if analytics are able to give his team an edge and aid its preparation, particularly for an NFL playoff game, then there’s some value. But it appears he’s more interested in using the eye test rather than fancy formulas to evaluate players and construct his game plans. “I’ve done things all the way back to when I was with the Giants, and before that, I was doing them by hand,” Belichick said. “But look, you’re out there coaching everyday, and to me, if you can’t see an 80 percent tendency, then what are you looking at? Now, is it 51/49 or 49/51, what are you going to do with that? You want to bet on 51 or bet on 49? Or are you going to bet on 55 or 45? At that point, what’s the difference? I don’t see a big difference, and I certainly wouldn’t want to bet on 55 and just take my chances on 45. You got to play it straight. Honestly, I think if an experienced coach can’t see 80/20 or 90/10, then that’s not very good.” The Patriots are doing just fine without a deep dive into analytics — no team has won more games or lifted more Lombardi trophies since 2001. But it wouldn’t hurt for the team to give analytics a closer look at some point. Advanced stats certainly don’t paint the entire picture, but they do offer a fresh perspective, especially in a sport such as football, where teams use so many different, complex plays and schemes on both sides of the ball.

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2016/01/patriots-bill-belichick-on-analytics-its-not-really-a-big-thing-with-me/

Edit: What's annoying me, like our last discussion, is you forced me to downgrade something I respect (Edelman, last time and now stat based analysis), because IMHO, your improper usage of it an your all or nothing approach to it.

 

[emperus]

Well, that didn't take long, Pats fire their O-line coach..http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/14647509/new-england-patriots-offensive-line-coach-dave-deguglielmo-part-ways

This is a surprising move from the standpoint that NE doesn't do this type of firing. But, before the turnaround after the KC game, the line was terrible as well and everybody wanted him fired. Maybe Belichick gave him a pass last season and couldn't get rid of him after they won the Superbowl.

 

[SP33Demon]

The stats are never the issue. It's your use of them in your analysis. It's like a sack total, without understanding why a player got a sack (ex. a more dominant player was triple teamed yet still forced the QB out of the pocket into the arms of another lineman) that metric can be not all that useful. That is all I am saying. It's like your Metric for Shag Mason, how could he have a positive day when Brady was hit 23 times and sacked 4 times. Did he not get beat by Ware or Miller, or were the more dominant pass rushers facing other players, or did they devote extra attention to getting him help at the expense of the other players. Fyi, Mason is known to be a terrible pass blocker.

Furthermore, I am saying that the coaches of the Patriots have more insight into the lineman than you and I and the people who create these stats. They understand the schemes they run, why a lineman has gotten beat more or why a RB whose stats say he has the higher average yards per route run in a pass first scheme is still the 2nd string back. Two things I will tell you, when Solder and Lewis get healthy (and back to form) they will be easily the starting and the #1 options at their respective positions in a pass first offense. So, if they aren't there, yes the Patriots believe there is a drop off in what they do. You are a gambling man, let's make a wager if that makes it more palatable.

Lastly, I'll trust the winning-est coach in NFL history in the midst of the salary cap era and team parity on how to build a team and his evaluation of players, rather than some data crunchers. Here is Belichick on using stat analysis.

Edit: What's annoying me, like our last discussion, is you forced me to downgrade something I respect (Edelman, last time and now stat based analysis), because IMHO, your improper usage of it an your all or nothing approach to it.

Football isn't a magical black box, of course advanced analysts can understand what the coaches were trying to do on each play, don't be naive. In fact, PFF has ex-NFL coaches and players consulting for them in grading, that's why they took away our (general public) access to Premium Stats. They are making a killing by selling it to NFL/college teams exclusively because it's so valuable (which pissed me off but I understand it's a business). Their grading may not be perfect but it's good enough to spot trends and use descriptive stats to predict outcomes. For example, Brady's 2 throws on 4th down vs Denver and Gronk's amazing catches. To a normal person, that seems out of the ordinary but it wasn't out of my expectations because if you know that Brady was throwing TDs under pressure at a historic rate in 2015, then you expect it to happen. If you know that Gronk is the undisputed #1 from a talent and grading level then you expect him to make plays like that in double coverage. You expect Von Miller/Wolfe/Jackson/Ware to eat up any offensive line they face if they're not on the field for extended periods of time (like Peyton's 4 pick game).

Belichick's quote is only an analysis of an individual talent level (his players), but how does that talent compare to the rest of the league? For example, there's no way he can know that Dion Lewis had forced more missed tackles than any other RB in the league simply because he doesn't watch every snap of every game. If you showed BB tape Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Dion Lewis could he accurately predict which back would have the most missed tackles by game 8? Game 13? No, of course not. That's why advanced stats are so valuable because it provides perspective relative to the rest of the league. You may think Nate Solder is hot shit and he may have been in college, but compared to other linemen at his position he's below average. As the season goes on, we get more and more data as players face more and more opponents. Combine this with historical performances and you have a pretty good idea of who is top 5 at their position. For example, Jordan Reed was getting great separation even before his injury. When he came back, he continued where he left off. But he was an obvious one, how about Delanie Walker? He was a top 3 graded TE this year on a horrid team. Yet nobody knows who he is or even what team he plays for, let alone how good he was this year.

NE's Shaq Mason graded positively because he did his job properly more often than not on every single snap of the game. This is regardless of his reputation as a poor pass pro lineman, he still did well in the game. That's why you have to look at a micro-game level vs season level performances and try to identify trends. Did he just have a good day? How did he perform in the next 3 games? 10 games? Like Aaron Donald outperforming JJ Watt. How many of you have heard of Aaron Donald? Most would say that JJ is a better player, but we cannot definitively say that now based on the past 16 games. Aaron Donald is an absolute force, and if you saw him break Justin Forsett's forearm you know what kind of power he has. Watt is still playing at an obscenely good rate but he now has company on the mountaintop. In summary, I want to know if Shaq Mason can continue his above average play vs Denver and that would be what BB would wonder as well.

Nate Solder and Dion Lewis will make the team better from a rushing standpoint, there is no disputing that. But for the pass game, it's not going to make much more of a difference. Brady simply needs more pass pro, not rushing IMO. If you give him a half second longer to throw to the best TE and best possession receivers in football then you don't need a rushing attack, which NE showed this year. Case in point, the game ending 2pt conversion. Gronk was open in the end zone but Brady didn't have time to find him nor did he have time to even scramble. NE isn't running the ball on a 2pt conversion, even with Solder and Lewis on the field. They won the majority of their games going pass heavy (unless they played a weaker run stopping D and exploited that) and either play to their strengths (passing) and/or the other teams weakness (bad pass defense or bad run D). There's no way they're risking a run on a 2pt conversion against the #1 run D in the league, BB's not an idiot - he's going to play to his team's strengths and play the percentages. I would give the Pats a 25% chance of converting against the Denver D with Dion Lewis.

You say advanced stats aren't everything, but I would contend that they describe 90% of what you're seeing on the field. They include every facet of the game from every snap from the play the offense was trying to run vs both teams' formations. Every player either did his job or he didn't and to different magnitudes. Over time, the superior talent will separate itself from its peers.

 

[BUTCH1]

Football isn't a magical black box, of course advanced analysts can understand what the coaches were trying to do on each play, don't be naive. In fact, PFF has ex-NFL coaches and players consulting for them in grading, that's why they took away our (general public) access to Premium Stats. They are making a killing by selling it to NFL/college teams exclusively because it's so valuable (which pissed me off but I understand it's a business). Their grading may not be perfect but it's good enough to spot trends and use descriptive stats to predict outcomes. For example, Brady's 2 throws on 4th down vs Denver and Gronk's amazing catches. To a normal person, that seems out of the ordinary but it wasn't out of my expectations because if you know that Brady was throwing TDs under pressure at a historic rate in 2015, then you expect it to happen. If you know that Gronk is the undisputed #1 from a talent and grading level then you expect him to make plays like that in double coverage. You expect Von Miller/Wolfe/Jackson/Ware to eat up any offensive line they face if they're not on the field for extended periods of time (like Peyton's 4 pick game).

Belichick's quote is only an analysis of an individual talent level (his players), but how does that talent compare to the rest of the league? For example, there's no way he can know that Dion Lewis had forced more missed tackles than any other RB in the league simply because he doesn't watch every snap of every game. If you showed BB tape Jamaal Charles, Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson, and Dion Lewis could he accurately predict which back would have the most missed tackles by game 8? Game 13? No, of course not. That's why advanced stats are so valuable because it provides perspective relative to the rest of the league. You may think Nate Solder is hot shit and he may have been in college, but compared to other linemen at his position he's below average. As the season goes on, we get more and more data as players face more and more opponents. Combine this with historical performances and you have a pretty good idea of who is top 5 at their position. For example, Jordan Reed was getting great separation even before his injury. When he came back, he continued where he left off. But he was an obvious one, how about Delanie Walker? He was a top 3 graded TE this year on a horrid team. Yet nobody knows who he is or even what team he plays for, let alone how good he was this year.

NE's Shaq Mason graded positively because he did his job properly more often than not on every single snap of the game. This is regardless of his reputation as a poor pass pro lineman, he still did well in the game. That's why you have to look at a micro-game level vs season level performances and try to identify trends. Did he just have a good day? How did he perform in the next 3 games? 10 games? Like Aaron Donald outperforming JJ Watt. How many of you have heard of Aaron Donald? Most would say that JJ is a better player, but we cannot definitively say that now based on the past 16 games. Aaron Donald is an absolute force, and if you saw him break Justin Forsett's forearm you know what kind of power he has. Watt is still playing at an obscenely good rate but he now has company on the mountaintop. In summary, I want to know if Shaq Mason can continue his above average play vs Denver and that would be what BB would wonder as well.

Nate Solder and Dion Lewis will make the team better from a rushing standpoint, there is no disputing that. But for the pass game, it's not going to make much more of a difference. Brady simply needs more pass pro, not rushing IMO. If you give him a half second longer to throw to the best TE and best possession receivers in football then you don't need a rushing attack, which NE showed this year. Case in point, the game ending 2pt conversion. Gronk was open in the end zone but Brady didn't have time to find him nor did he have time to even scramble. NE isn't running the ball on a 2pt conversion, even with Solder and Lewis on the field. They won the majority of their games going pass heavy (unless they played a weaker run stopping D and exploited that) and either play to their strengths (passing) and/or the other teams weakness (bad pass defense or bad run D). There's no way they're risking a run on a 2pt conversion against the #1 run D in the league, BB's not an idiot - he's going to play to his team's strengths and play the percentages. I would give the Pats a 25% chance of converting against the Denver D with Dion Lewis.

You say advanced stats aren't everything, but I would contend that they describe 90% of what you're seeing on the field. They include every facet of the game from every snap from the play the offense was trying to run vs both teams' formations. Every player either did his job or he didn't and to different magnitudes. Over time, the superior talent will separate itself from its peers.

Yea, I saw that Gronk was WIDE open on that conversion attempt but I don't blame Brady for not seeing him, he already had 2 guys chasing him down and he probably felt if he didn't uncork it to Edeleman (who was bracketed) he was going to get sacked without getting a throw off. IMO BB fucked up by not kicking the FG with 6:00 left, you defense is stuffing Denver and needing a conversion against that pass-rush is almost like needing 2 TD's, not easily done. Moving forward into next year the Pats need a real weapon to stretch the field with, Lafell is close to Lajoke in that dept. It pisses me off to see other top QB's get guys like OBJ or AB or Green and we have to rely on a TE getting down the field to have any deep threat. Other teams will take note on what Wade Phillips did and try and duplicate it. With a quality WR with speed, good hands and height those safeties might think twice before playing so far up in the box.