***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

2015 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2414978
2014 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2362354
2013 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2293274
2012 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2216583
2011 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2132168
2010 http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2038405



Solar will be the best investment for 2016, followed by Biotech (again). The QQQs will go back under $100.

Happy investing!

 

[brianmanahan]

it's not 2016 yet though

and lol at fad investments

 

[FelixDeCat]

it's not 2016 yet though

and lol at fad investments

You could call oil a 120 year old fad... after allthe horse and buggy whip was in use much longer.

 

[Imp]

Booooooooo... Like 6 or 7 trading days left.

How's everyone done so far this year?

 

[JTsyo]

Booooooooo... Like 6 or 7 trading days left.

How's everyone done so far this year?

Down about 5% not counting dividends. There wasn't much action other than big drops in my oil holdings.

 

[Imp]

Down about 5% not counting dividends. There wasn't much action other than big drops in my oil holdings.

Lost me about 5% of my entire portfolio on one bad oil play: COS. I am kicking myself more because people were telling me how questionable their balance sheet was BEFORE oil crashed.

Despite that, I'm up 17% on the year right now in terms of CAD, all thanks to a crappy Canadian economy, the oil crash, and Fed hike.

If oil keeps crashing, Fed hikes again, and the Canadian economy remains in the crapper, I am going to have an amazing 2016 voiding any stupid trades.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Booooooooo... Like 6 or 7 trading days left.

How's everyone done so far this year?

I was up big with biotech. Then it all went to heck when I did a credit call spread and my trading funds went to ZERO after GooG went ballistic!

 

[jpiniero]

Saw earlier that one projection for S&P the end of 2016 was for 2100 (which would be a little less than a 2% increase from where it ended on Friday). I would be completely fine with that. I'll go with 2000 which would be a small loss.

 

[Imp]

Saw earlier that one projection for S&P the end of 2016 was for 2100 (which would be a little less than a 2% increase from where it ended on Friday). I would be completely fine with that. I'll go with 2000 which would be a small loss.

Trailing year dividend yield is 2.60% so you'd be okay-ish.

The 30-year Treasury Bond is like 2.95% -- and unless you plan to hold for 30 years, you'd probably sell at a loss if Fed hikes again.

Looks like I made an okay-ish call on PFF early in the yield. It's $38.67 right now, trailing dividend of 5.79%, I sold at $40.

 

[Artdeco]

Typically presidential election years are good for the market, the following year usually sucks.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Typically presidential election years are good for the market, the following year usually sucks.

I dont think this will be a typical year. I think it will be all about thinking outside the box in this new paradigm of global upheaval and general mayhem.

 

[brianmanahan]

I dont think this will be a typical year. I think it will be all about thinking outside the box in this new paradigm of global upheaval and general mayhem.

global upheaval and general mayhem are certainly nothing new

 

[FelixDeCat]

global upheaval and general mayhem are certainly nothing new

At least not since Obama took office...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-4-gLlF0uw

 

[Imp]

Typically presidential election years are good for the market, the following year usually sucks.

Everyone's calling for a recession soon. Canada's essentially in one, and the rest of the world isn't doing great right now -- commodity prices suck. Time for one last run...

 

[Imp]

Oil prices down. Potentially linked to Saudi Arabia deficit report?

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/dec/28/saudi-arabia-spending-cuts-oil-prices-budget-deficit

Word is they'll be able to hold out with crappy crude prices for a while. Word is also that oil companies may soon be starting to default in large numbers.

 

[edro]

I see another big year for Amazon. +50%
I am seeing more and more people using Amazon for general every day purchases.
Once the baby boomers get on board, I can see Amazon sales ever increasing.
It's just too easy to open your phone and Buy Now for any product you need.
Their Prime Memberships will continue to grow and their data/server services are top notch.

 

[Kwatt]

Saw earlier that one projection for S&P the end of 2016 was for 2100 (which would be a little less than a 2% increase from where it ended on Friday). I would be completely fine with that. I'll go with 2000 which would be a small loss.

2100 makes sense to me. That is close to where it was when the Fed quit buying. For higher will have to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WPZn4rbiB8g


.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Question for you stock guys....

Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?

 

[Udgnim]

Question for you stock guys....

Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?

if oil tanks down to < $30, that might cause a large dip in the market

I don't see many reasons to be bullish with most developed countries trying to fight deflation, EU continuing QE to prop itself up, and China constantly cutting rates to also try to prop up its economy

 

[brianmanahan]

Question for you stock guys....

Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?

i always max out the roth IRA, but spread my 401k over the entire year

the reason for the 401k is that my employer will only put 1/24 of their match into a paycheck. so if i maxed it out in 3 months, i would only get 1/4 of the total match for the year.

if your employer will give you the full match right away though, then it's probably fine to max out the 401k ASAP. 2/3 of the time the market is cheaper at the beginning of the year than at the end of the year.

you run the risk of a 2008 where things got a lot cheaper over time, but on the contrary they got a lot more expensive in 2013.

compounded over 20-30 years though, per-paycheck vs per-year investing returns are probably within a few percent of each other

 

[JEDI]

Question for you stock guys....

Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?

buy now and keep buying.
don't time the market for retirement stuff. it doesn't matter since your horizon is decades.
a little blip next year aint going to make much of a difference as long as you keep buying.

so basically your DCA (dollar cost avg)

 

[jpiniero]

I see another big year for Amazon. +50%
I am seeing more and more people using Amazon for general every day purchases.
Once the baby boomers get on board, I can see Amazon sales ever increasing.
It's just too easy to open your phone and Buy Now for any product you need.
Their Prime Memberships will continue to grow and their data/server services are top notch.

There is no way you can seriously justify Amazon's valuation right now, even if you think Amazon can turn really profitable at some point which I don't think is going to be so easy.

 

[Charmonium]

if oil tanks down to < $30, that might cause a large dip in the market

I don't see many reasons to be bullish with most developed countries trying to fight deflation, EU continuing QE to prop itself up, and China constantly cutting rates to also try to prop up its economy

The problem the past several years is the fact that companies aren't replacing their capital equipment. Much of it is well beyond it's expected life but firms are finding a way to keep the old equipment running. It's starting to remind you of Cuba and cars from the 50's - they just never die.

Instead of buying stuff, companies prefer to put their money into stock buybacks. This engineers higher returns for investors w/o having to worry about growth.

Another issue with capex has been the energy sector. Because of the huge drop in prices, capex for that sector has declined. I'm not sure how much of total capex is attributable to this sector, but it's significant.

 

[sm625]

For 2016 Q1, I'm going to be looking at oil. Specifically, OIL calls, the most expensive out-of-the-money calls. I've been waiting patiently for a pattern to form a support under commodities, and I'm seeing a potential bottom and breakout point sometime in February/March. If this pattern forms, OIL should be dragged up to $8 and beyond. With OIL $7 April calls at 25 cents, there is big profit potential. But a lot can and probably will happen between now and mid-February. Anytime you are dealing with a potential bottom on a chart, you are also dealing with a strong possibility of that bottom falling out.

My major concern is the health of the overall market. The $SPX 20W/50W cross says we are in a bear market for stocks. The long bond has been in a bear market for 2.5 years. Commodities have been in a bear market for just over 4 years. The Russell 2000 has been in a bear market for 4 months. 2/3 of the NYSE is below its 200 day moving average. Given these facts, one should expect the S&P500 to be trading at 1750 right now, before even taking into account the fact that earnings growth is negative. 2016 is probably going to break a lot of people.

 

[SketchMaster]

Question for you stock guys....

Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?

There has been a lot of debate over this, and the answer depends on how you want to take the data: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/dollar_cost.htm

Brianmanahan brought up a good point on making sure you're not leaving money on the table. After that it comes down to this: If you have the money to do a lump sum, do it. If you don't, then invest what you can over time.

Either way, don't worry about timing the market for your retirement. Just keep investing.