***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[sm625]

Keep in mind that only the best crude is trading near $30.

There is a lot of oil that is actually worth nothing right now.

 

[dullard]

Keep in mind that only the best crude is trading near $30.

There is a lot of oil that is actually worth nothing right now.

I've been meaning to post something like that. I heard on the news recently that the high-sulphur oil actually was recently sold at negative $0.50 per barrel. Companies were paying people to take it off their hands.

That brings me to FelixDeCat. At what point is his $15/barrel valid? The drive for five thread got dmcowen674 ridiculed even though gas did hit the $4.70 range in some cities. Does oil have to reach $15/barrel everywhere for Felix to be vindicated? Or does it have to reach $15/barrel somewhere? Does it have to be the best oil?

 

[Udgnim]

I've been meaning to post something like that. I heard on the news recently that the high-sulphur oil actually was recently sold at negative $0.50 per barrel. Companies were paying people to take it off their hands.

That brings me to FelixDeCat. At what point is his $15/barrel valid? The drive for five thread got dmcowen674 ridiculed even though gas did hit the $4.70 range in some cities. Does oil have to reach $15/barrel everywhere for Felix to be vindicated? Or does it have to reach $15/barrel somewhere? Does it have to be the best oil?

matter of supply and demand

if storage of oil keeps increasing due to supply outpacing demand, then oil is going to continue dropping in price

oil will increase in price when oil storage starts decreasing due to demand being greater than supply

overall oil demand is still on an increasing positive slope. it is supply that significantly changed with the Saudis ramping up their pumping and now Iran entering the oil market.

US shale production is surviving off of high oil hedges and focusing their drilling on the most fruitful oil wells. eventually the oil hedges are going to expire and the fruitful oil wells will starting pumping out less and the TCO / ROI to bring up new rigs is not going to be worth it at current oil prices.

future supply growth is also being reduced due to capex being cut across the board on all oil focused companies.

assuming oil demand maintains a positive slope of growth, demand will eventually catch up to supply

Goldman Sachs put out a report where they expected oil to drop down to $20. I'm guessing that's where Goldman believes significant production cuts will occur if oil reaches the $20 level.

 

[sm625]

That brings me to FelixDeCat. At what point is his $15/barrel valid? The drive for five thread got dmcowen674 ridiculed even though gas did hit the $4.70 range in some cities. Does oil have to reach $15/barrel everywhere for Felix to be vindicated? Or does it have to reach $15/barrel somewhere? Does it have to be the best oil?

WTI is the benchmark. Brent is very close to WTI in terms of quality. I would say the cheaper of the two benchmarks would be what you would want to use for price targetting to the downside. And the most expensive of the two should be used for upside price targetting. Or you could go with an average of the two benchmark crudes. I dont think it really matters though, unless you guys put money on the table.

 

[poohbear]

God damn it. If oil drops even more before the June OPEC meeting, then that means there's 5 more months of volatility?!? OPEC isn't cutting the supply before June, so assuming it'll drop a few more times before June, we can expect a few more of this drops. I'm really at nerves end here. Not sure how much more losses I can take @ the stock market.

 

[IronWing]

Are we there yet?

Guess not.

 

[MustISO]

WWWhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

As crazy as the fall has been some stocks I bought in August are still higher than when I bought them. I sold them back before the slide but still track them. Looking forward to jumping back in when the smoke clears.

 

[Charmonium]

I was watching an analyst on Bloomberg yesterday who said that a contango of $7-8 implies a minimum price of about $20/brl. At that price, it becomes profitable to store the oil for later sale. So excess production is likely to be absorbed at that price.

 

[Kwatt]

Dangit

XOM crossed above a yield of 4% it's hard not to get some more.

I'm not because through a DRIP it is my 2nd largest holding but I want to....

.

 

[manlymatt83]

Dangit

XOM crossed above a yield of 4% it's hard not to get some more.

I'm not because through a DRIP it is my 2nd largest holding but I want to....

.

Just sold my SPXS Feb $21 calls for a super nice profit -- 350%. Looking to take some more risk, but I'm thinking now would probably be a completely bad time to get into DRIP, eh? Up 17% today. Maybe play some puts for a possible correction.

 

[ponyo]

Don't call it a comeback. Smells like big reversal is coming. I'm seeing some greens after sea of red.

 

[AdamK47]

It looks like the stock market is doing great today.

 

[baydude]

I am down ~20% on all my stocks this year. Should I just sell or hold?

 

[RockinZ28]

I'm trying to exchange for something guaranteed or super conservative. Now I'm losing actual money in my retirement accounts, as the balance will be below what I've put in. Vanguard is not letting me sell or exchange though...

 

[Imp]

Boooooooooooooo... Bank of Canada held interest rate at 0.50% and the CAD rallied a bit -- despite a humungulous drop in oil prices that drove it down here in the first place.

I was watching an analyst on Bloomberg yesterday who said that a contango of $7-8 implies a minimum price of about $20/brl. At that price, it becomes profitable to store the oil for later sale. So excess production is likely to be absorbed at that price.

They said oil storage would run out last summer, but here we are. Having said that, there are supposedly a LOT of crude tankers anchored offshore near ports right now. Storage may be running out.

Dangit

XOM crossed above a yield of 4% it's hard not to get some more.
.

I would love to buy some XOM right now, but I can't help but feel that it'll drop a ton if oil stays in the sub-$40 range for a year or two. On the other hand, is my concern a sign that I should actually be buying... If this is indeed a bear market, I should just wait a bit and go all-in on SPY.

 

[Imp]

This is a nice set of charts predicting the start of a bear market. Total technical analysis, I think, but it looks somewhat convincing along with all the other indicators out there.

There's an AUTO-PLAY VIDEO in the link:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/20/these-are-classic-signs-of-a-bear-market.html

Looks like I'm sitting this out for a lot longer.

 

[Charmonium]

They said oil storage would run out last summer, but here we are. Having said that, there are supposedly a LOT of crude tankers anchored offshore near ports right now. Storage may be running out.

Standard storage like tanks and tankers. But I think they could just pump oil into old wells if you really wanted to hoard. I don't know though. I've heard a couple say that at some point buyers would just put the oil into a hole in the ground. So I'm guessing this means played out wells.

 

[Kwatt]

I would love to buy some XOM right now, but I can't help but feel that it'll drop a ton if oil stays in the sub-$40 range for a year or two. On the other hand, is my concern a sign that I should actually be buying... If this is indeed a bear market, I should just wait a bit and go all-in on SPY.

XOM may indeed drop. But, the refinement part of XOM will provide some protection. I believe it will anyway...

.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've been meaning to post something like that. I heard on the news recently that the high-sulphur oil actually was recently sold at negative $0.50 per barrel. Companies were paying people to take it off their hands.

That brings me to FelixDeCat. At what point is his $15/barrel valid? The drive for five thread got dmcowen674 ridiculed even though gas did hit the $4.70 range in some cities. Does oil have to reach $15/barrel everywhere for Felix to be vindicated? Or does it have to reach $15/barrel somewhere? Does it have to be the best oil?

We might go under $20 for benchmark WTI later in 2016, but I think we finally might see a small short covering rally in oil, or at least some near term stability. I have no money in it either way, other than as a normal consumer.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was tempted to buy puts but declined. Greed always leads to loss - for me, at least. Who knows what happens tomorrow. We could wind up with a rally by the end of the day.

Well, some stupid billionaires decided to start a short covering rally that made people who were short calls (like me) to start panic buying and we got a damn rally after all.

 

[Imp]

Well, some stupid billionaires decided to start a short covering rally that made people who were short calls (like me) to start panic buying and we got a damn rally after all.

Thanks a lot, asshole. I was really hoping to be entertained by a -500 DOW day...

 

[brianmanahan]

 

[FelixDeCat]

Thanks a lot, asshole. I was really hoping to be entertained by a -500 DOW day...

I mean seriously though - "lets go from 97 to 102" - in one day .. in the middle of perfectly good selloff. We are way overdue for a stop in selling. But then the same billionaires might think "hey, we've already thrown the market for a 4% intraday loop in the OPPOSITE direction". Let them guess.

I think we are up at least 1%, but who knows what this crazy assed monster has in store. When they can run it down to 97 then go back to 102 the SAME day, anything can happen.

 

[Imp]

Looks like I'll just have to settle with watching the Shanghai index go down 3% today...

Seriously, this is probably the start of a bear market.

Edit: Chart on U.S. industrial production and recessions in link. Not looking good.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/the-worrying-signs-of-another-u-s-recession/

 

[FelixDeCat]

sell!