***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

All right, I am entering my first trade of 2016. I'm not going to say whether it is long or short, I will just post a chart of my indicator for the last 6 months and let it speak for itself:

short. it's going to hit it's 2nd peak and fall back down.
aka double shoulders.

amirite?

 

[11thHour]

All the short/long oil tracking ETFs I know are leveraged 2 or 3 times. Shame because the decay risk is big. If there were a true straight crude oil long, I'd buy.

OLEM is one I found but has scarce volume. Here's a list I found it in.

 

[Artdeco]

Holy crap, Amazon is taking a beating, down 13% after earnings announced

 

[ponyo]

Holy crap, Amazon is taking a beating, down 13% after earnings announced

meh. It was up almost 9% today. So 13% drop after earnings miss isn't much of a haircut. It should be lot worse. I love how Washington Post posted favorable article trying to paint only positive earnings report and conveniently left out Amazon missed badly. Must be nice to own the newspaper.

 

[JEDI]

Holy crap, Amazon is taking a beating, down 13% after earnings announced

looks like its going to be a down day tomorrow?

 

[jpiniero]

Holy crap, Amazon is taking a beating, down 13% after earnings announced

The P/E is over 900. So silly.

 

[Staples]

Holy crap, Amazon is taking a beating, down 13% after earnings announced

I sold my position a few weeks ago. If they did anything like FB with their jump of 15-20% today, I'd be kicking myself. I finally feel good about something today.

 

[Hugo Drax]

ES going nuts. huge volume. BOJ adopts negative interest rates. We will probably end up doing the same at some point.

 

[FelixDeCat]

ES going nuts. huge volume. BOJ adopts negative interest rates. We will probably end up doing the same at some point.

Earth to Hugo - we had negative rates - it was called quantative easing.

Even with rates near zero, the short term tbill rates were BELOW zero because the Fed was putting in a bid for govt bonds to artificially keep rates low FOR YEARS.

Now we have inverse policy - the Fed has moved to raise rates (one rate increase last year and another one scheduled soon).

That is why everyone and their grandmother thinks that over the next twelve months more money will be made SHORTING the stock market than going long as money is taken out of the economy.

The long case is that while rates are rising, we are still talking rates at 40 year lows. That should mean a healthier bull market in the long term.

 

[Charmonium]

Earth to Hugo - we had negative rates - it was called quantative easing.

Even with rates near zero, the short term tbill rates were BELOW zero because the Fed was putting in a bid for govt bonds to artificially keep rates low FOR YEARS.

Now we have inverse policy - the Fed has moved to raise rates (one rate increase last year and another one scheduled soon).

That is why everyone and their grandmother thinks that over the next twelve months more money will be made SHORTING the stock market than going long as money is taken out of the economy.

The long case is that while rates are rising, we are still talking rates at 40 year lows. That should mean a healthier bull market in the long term.

The fed is also reducing it's balance in an absolute sense and at the same time doing hundreds of billions in reverse repos. So liquidity is going to get squeezed but but not from a half point rate hike.

Fed funds only affects the near term market. It's influence as you go out on the yield curve is much less. Actual money supply tightening should raise all rates. Although I think it too tends to mainly affect the short and medium term debt instruments.

The real issue right now is the flatten of the yield curve. Short rates have been going up and long rates going down. That creates an unfavorable lending environment since lenders make money on the spread between short and long.

And if the curve continues to flatten, that could be the precursor to an inverted yield curve.

 

[Imp]

Bank of Japan just set negative interest rates...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/japan-negative-rate-1.3424943

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ from $100 back to $105

UP $3.5 since then, $1.50 to go. Too many shorts right now and this time of year stocks tend to rise.

BUT now that the majority of earnings are out....once we reach $105....look out below! (I think). :sneaky:

 

[Imp]

Not quite new news but I heard that Hong Kong's housing bubble may have popped. That's an hour of fun reading ahead.

 

[Charmonium]

Not quite new news but I heard that Hong Kong's housing bubble may have popped. That's an hour of fun reading ahead.

Why do you care?

 

[jpiniero]

Bank of Japan just set negative interest rates...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/japan-negative-rate-1.3424943

It's going to be hella tough to wean Wall Street off pumping. They are seriously addicted.

 

[Imp]

Why do you care?

Potential cascade effect that will finally hit the bubble in Canada.

 

[Charmonium]

Potential cascade effect that will finally hit the bubble in Canada.

Ooooh, you mean because of all of the Chinese investment in Canada?

 

[Imp]

Ooooh, you mean because of all of the Chinese investment in Canada?

Maybe. I don't think it's mainly driven by foreign investors, but if it is, then so be it.

Otherwise, if China and Hong Kong pops, maybe the perception alone causes people in Canada to rethink paying $1M for crackshacks.

This is not right:

The majority of that growth--53 percent--can be attributed to a single sub-sector...

As a result of its gains in 2015, the real estate industry accounts for 12 percent of Canada's gross domestic product through November.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/canada-s-one-legged-stool-economy

 

[Kelvrick]

Maybe. I don't think it's mainly driven by foreign investors, but if it is, then so be it.

Otherwise, if China and Hong Kong pops, maybe the perception alone causes people in Canada to rethink paying $1M for crackshacks.

This is not right:



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-29/canada-s-one-legged-stool-economy

So they're talking "Real estate and rental and leasing," right? Because this is what I found that would support that percentage.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gdps04a-eng.htm

I certainly agree that canadian real estate seems to be in a bubble, but it how does that differ from the US?

I wasn't able to find 2015 numbers for America, but the US Department of Commerce put "Real estate and rental and leasing" at 12.96% of GDP in 2014. In fact, it seems to average above 12.6% all the way back to the 90's. I spent a few more minutes, but only found canadian figures back to 2010, and while it definitely grew from then, my extremely untrained eyes don't see too big of a jump.
2010-12.30%
2011-12.41%
2012-12.51%
2013-12.61%
2014-12.57%

 

[Imp]

I certainly agree that canadian real estate seems to be in a bubble, but it how does that differ from the US?

I wasn't able to find 2015 numbers for America, but the US Department of Commerce put "Real estate and rental and leasing" at 12.96% of GDP in 2014. In fact, it seems to average above 12.6% all the way back to the 90's.

Ya, that was not a great example, I didn't compare it to the U.S -- or is it not a good sign in either country?

I was thinking of what I heard about how real estate (e.g. contruction/renos, financing/mortgages, buy/sell, etc.) accounted for over 20% of economic activity. Not sure if all those things are counted under "real estate and rental and leasing." There's a typo in the link -- original BNN link has auto-play videos

It’s responsible for 20-30% of total economic activity in some years, and about 11% of total job growth,

http://www.canadianrealestatemagazi...he-labour-market-down-too--report-200489.aspx

Alone, that figure isn't concerning. It's that plus the record consumer debt levels, average price-income ratios for properties, current commodity bust, and "buy now or never" culture I've seen for years.

Edit: Found what I was thinking of...

By some estimates, the real estate sector in Canada makes up more than a quarter of the country’s annual GDP and nearly half its growth since 2005, when related industries like financing and insurance are taken into account.

http://www.macleans.ca/economy/econ...-economy-went-from-boom-to-recession-so-fast/

 

[brianmanahan]

january in review:

 

[FelixDeCat]

UP $3.5 since then, $1.50 to go. Too many shorts right now and this time of year stocks tend to rise.

BUT now that the majority of earnings are out....once we reach $105....look out below! (I think). :sneaky:

QQQ $104.80 high.

I have yet to find a bull. Even the Saturday afternoon stock /investment shows say, "Sell."

I dont know where we go now, but my guess is that we are flat by Friday.


edit: Google beat, lol

 

[brianmanahan]

i wouldn't mind things staying down until the middle of february so i can tax loss harvest back into VTIAX and VTSAX

 

[Imp]

This is going to be a boring year. CAD appears to be rallying just for shits and giggles.

Markets, from all the charts I've seen, may not finishing tanking until the end of this year.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Crazy selling today, shorts getting confident now that most cos. have released Q4 numbers. They think there wont be much upward pressure in the near term so they are shorting everything in sight.