Average time between recessions appears to be about 5 years -- Wikipedia says there were 47 since 1790 so [2016-1790=226/47=4.8].
Last one was 2008. We're pretty long overdue at 8 years.
Most convincing case for me is just drawing best-fit lines through SPY ETF during bull markets. Looked like there was a characteristic drop-off every time before a bear market started -- looked like we're in that drop-off now. Ya, that's technical analysis bullshit...
P.S. I should convert all my USD to CAD and lock in my gains, but then I'd be locked out of buying SPY at bottom of market. And there's a good chance CAD will do worse than USD since Canada's reliant on U.S. as trading partner, commodities tanked, and housing market should follow soon. Hope I'm right...
Well, it depends. Recoveries from credit recessions take a lot longer recover from than inventory recessions because they strike at the very heart of the financial system. It erodes trust on the part of all market participants - which is why you have firms hold record amounts of cash, much stricter loan underwriting standards, higher bank capital requirements, etc.
I don't think that we'll have an honest to god, the sky is falling recession like 2008-9. That's just not going to happen. But I do think it's possible to get an inverted yield curve for a very short period of time and subsequently a couple quarters of technically negative growth.
But most of that is due to the increase in the savings rate, the fact that home building has yet to fully recover (and normally it's what leads us out of recessions) and the massively reduced employment and capex in the energy sector.
Those issues have to be worked through but I don't think they're serious enough to cause anything approaching a debilitating recession. It will be more of a speed bump.