***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Im telling you, there is a lot of funny things going on out there. Anything can happen to anyone at any time. Dont get to comfortable - or we both might be out of a job.

After careful review of the recent gay4pay thread, I can honestly say that I have at least one backup plan. Chill, bro, you can join in too.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ down $3+ to $98 and LNKD down $80 (40%)

OUCH!!

 

[dullard]

I've been watching a few metals over the past couple months. I can see the allure of the commodities markets; get your annual fix of market ups and downs in a matter of days.

I've been playing with DSLV for quite some time. Double your money, or lose half of it every few months (sometimes every few days). I wouldn't recommend getting in that game at the moment as I suspect that most of the easy gains have been gained. But it was fun while it lasted.

 

[Imp]

Blackberry cutting employees. No official number but maybe 1000 in Waterloo -- very close to Toronto.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/blackberry-cuts-waterloo-florida-1.3435974

Canada "officially" lost 5700 jobs. Unemployment "officially" went up to 7.2%. And somehow we still have one of the most expensive housing markets in the world. People must be doing some magical shit to be affording their properties, or we're going to be like Hong Kong soon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-economy-1.3435172

 

[JEDI]

Blackberry cutting employees. No official number but maybe 1000 in Waterloo -- very close to Toronto.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/blackberry-cuts-waterloo-florida-1.3435974

Canada "officially" lost 5700 jobs. Unemployment "officially" went up to 7.2%. And somehow we still have one of the most expensive housing markets in the world. People must be doing some magical shit to be affording their properties, or we're going to be like Hong Kong soon.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-economy-1.3435172

blackberry still in business?!
how's the stock doing.

did our resident Blackberry cheerleader ever make his $ back?

 

[Imp]

Update from Blackberry says they only laid off 200:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/kitchener-waterloo/blackberry-cuts-waterloo-florida-1.3435974

Stock is still about CA$ 10 or US$ 7.

 

[Balt]

Well, today was fun. Not that long ago I had considered getting back into CRM. Glad I didn't.

 

[JTsyo]

I was thinking all the weak hands were folded in Jan. Was looking for a slow ride up, guess I was mistaken. Now I guess it's just a waiting game.

 

[Imp]

lulz. Allegedly, those working in the real estate industry may be adding to the transaction activity in Vancouver:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...ng-vancouvers-housing-market/article28634868/

I especially enjoyed this part:

Lynn Yang worked as an assistant for one of New Coast’s top brokers in 2014. She said one of her jobs was to knock on doors and persuade homeowners to sell quickly in private deals arranged by her boss.

“We would circle an area and try to buy them all – and then flip. [Homeowners] would be told: ‘I don’t know English, my English isn’t very good. I just want to buy your house,’” Ms. Yang said.

A nice follow-up to this incident from a few years back:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...ts-to-deceiving-vancouver-reporters-1.1402071

A Vancouver real estate marketing company is saying sorry after television reporters were duped by two employees posing as fake buyers at a condo development.

... happened at last weekend when television interviews were arranged with two young sisters from China...

I have no idea what kind of message they're trying to spin. Argh... those pesky foreign buyers. There's definitely no real-estate bubble in Vancouver or the rest of Canada. And we definitely shouldn't ask questions and question the influence that Canadian citizens/businesses may have.

 

[Michael]

I was thinking all the weak hands were folded in Jan. Was looking for a slow ride up, guess I was mistaken. Now I guess it's just a waiting game.

Weak hands is a gambling term. While there is a certain portion of people that are using leverage to gamble in the stock market, I firmly believe that the foundation for values is the risk adjusted discounted cash flow into the future.

I think the risk went up and growth is slowing so the foundation investors moved valuations lower. The gambling is all around that valuation line, but if the line moves valuations move.

Michael

 

[KB]

I was thinking all the weak hands were folded in Jan. Was looking for a slow ride up, guess I was mistaken. Now I guess it's just a waiting game.

Thats why they say you cant time the market. While you wait you miss out on dividends and never know when to get back in. Good luck. Hope you time it back in

 

[JTsyo]

Thats why they say you cant time the market. While you wait you miss out on dividends and never know when to get back in. Good luck. Hope you time it back in

Now I know better than to try to time it. I was buying in each week in Jan. I basically 80% in right now.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ 100 next week

 

[KB]

Now I know better than to try to time it. I was buying in each week in Jan. I basically 80% in right now.

I thought by waiting game, you meant you were waiting to put money in. Instead you meant waiting for return to an up trend as I am.

I am about 80% in too, collecting dividends on stocks paying an average of 5%. There are some great yields out there being given by companies holding big cash piles too. EMR, BA, UTX, GLW, CMI, MET, INTC, DOW, PFE, VIAB, WFC

 

[Imp]

Just realized... Didn't LinkedIn, Amazon, and GoPro tank these past weeks? Facebook's doing good. Twitter... not so well.

But no concerns about some sort of tech bubble popping?

 

[Aristotelian]

Maybe. I don't think it's mainly driven by foreign investors, but if it is, then so be it.

Otherwise, if China and Hong Kong pops, maybe the perception alone causes people in Canada to rethink paying $1M for crackshacks.

I used to be a trader in Toronto (a lifetime ago) and I recently visited a friend there. I couldn't believe how much real estate in Toronto (specifically) has gone up, even for these semi-detached townhouses in (previously) undesirable areas. But speculators have hit a new high there - moving downtown after suburbia (richmond hill etc) became saturated.

I can't speak for all of canada, but the property investment scene in Toronto is insane right now. The thing with property is that you can ride out a property crash. A house sold for 1.3 million or so in 1990 was worth much less in 1995, but now (yes, a long time) that house is worth a good 2.5 million (Bloor West, up on the hill overlooking the humber river). I remember Chinese investment driving up suburbia a lot, not the downtown areas of Toronto. I'd be interested in your views regarding FI and specific pockets of Canada's property market.

Sorry to be so specific - it's my first foray into this thread and I used to make a rather lucrative living trading but I've since moved on to another life. I still look back from time to time.

 

[jpiniero]

I was thinking all the weak hands were folded in Jan. Was looking for a slow ride up, guess I was mistaken. Now I guess it's just a waiting game.

We're only getting started with the declines if the Fed is serious about raising rates more.

I'm wondering about that Chinese toxic debt.

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ 100 next week

Oops! Now Im thinking we wont.

 

[Charmonium]

We're only getting started with the declines if the Fed is serious about raising rates more.

I'm wondering about that Chinese toxic debt.

They're not going to raise rates until they see how the economy is doing. Speculation about a March hike is completely wrong.

Despite capital controls, money is leaving China at an accelerating rate. China wants to create a consumer culture but the savings rate there is still ridiculous. Currently it's at 30% but just a few years ago it was 50. So with exports sliding, infrastructure building stalled and the consumer not picking up the pace fast enough, China still has a way to go before they bottom out.

 

[Staples]

Just realized... Didn't LinkedIn, Amazon, and GoPro tank these past weeks? Facebook's doing good. Twitter... not so well.

But no concerns about some sort of tech bubble popping?

Not looking good for me. I bought QQQ two weeks ago.

 

[Imp]

I can't speak for all of canada, but the property investment scene in Toronto is insane right now. The thing with property is that you can ride out a property crash. A house sold for 1.3 million or so in 1990 was worth much less in 1995, but now (yes, a long time) that house is worth a good 2.5 million (Bloor West, up on the hill overlooking the humber river). I remember Chinese investment driving up suburbia a lot, not the downtown areas of Toronto.

While the house's value may be back in 20 years, that's plenty of time for a person to get divorced, lose a job, have to move for a job, house to burn down, or even the entire city to tank like Detroit. Pretty risky considering that more than a few people use their house as their main retirement fund.

Inflation adjusted, $1.3 million in 1990 is $2.8 million in 2016 -- assuming 3%/year inflation. Using Bank of Canada's calculator, it was lower at $2.06 million in 2015. So, $2.5M now after you take away realtor fees, taxes, and loan servicing costs probably isn't great. We'll conveniently ignore all "investment upkeep costs."

On the other hand, I was in the market to buy around 2010. If I went all-in, I'd be doing great now. But my "investment partner" turned out to be an idiot and I wasn't comfortable going all-in.

 

[Udgnim]

hooray add fears of European banks being insolvent to this market environment

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3089496-deutsche-bank-record-low-fear-european-banks-grows

 

[IEC]

Oh dear. We're in for some chop, it looks like.

 

[Imp]

hooray add fears of European banks being insolvent to this market environment

http://seekingalpha.com/news/3089496-deutsche-bank-record-low-fear-european-banks-grows

I'm concerned about Canadian banks. What else do they finance aside from commodity companies (pretty much all in the shitter) and property/mortgages (bubble may be bursting). Smaller oil companies should start defaulting within the next few months. And jingle-mail is happening in Alberta...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/jingle-mail-alberta-housing-1.3430867

Thank goodness they're too big to fail and the gubment will print money to bail them out -- hence why 95% of my money is USD.

 

[senseamp]

LOL, ECB & Fed run ZIRP and NIRP, end up hosing their own banks that can't make money due to lack of spread between deposits and loans. You gotta love modern monetary policy.