***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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Nov 8, 2012
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There has been a lot of debate over this, and the answer depends on how you want to take the data: http://www.moneychimp.com/features/dollar_cost.htm

Brianmanahan brought up a good point on making sure you're not leaving money on the table. After that it comes down to this: If you have the money to do a lump sum, do it. If you don't, then invest what you can over time.

Either way, don't worry about timing the market for your retirement. Just keep investing.

My company does a yearly contribution match (unlike monthly ones), so I don't think it would affect my matching. Which kinda sucks if you ever plan to leave the company and haven't been paid the match for that year.

But based on your link from a simple eye-view of the statistics, it looks like lump sum slightly beats out averaging - roughly... 60-65% of the time.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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Haven't decided what to do yet for 2016. I could stay all cash and probably end up positive due to USD/CAD. But now that the Fed hiked the rate and nothing's really happened, I wouldn't mind some cash flow.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
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finally upped my bonds to 'Age - 10'

i was bonds = age -15 in 2008 when the crash happened.
never added more to bond allocation since then even tho I've aged 8yrs.

got lucky with a super hot market since then and got great returns on that extra 8%.
but its time to get back and follow the course.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
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finally upped my bonds to 'Age - 10'

i was bonds = age -15 in 2008 when the crash happened.
never added more to bond allocation since then even tho I've aged 8yrs.

got lucky with a super hot market since then and got great returns on that extra 8%.
but its time to get back and follow the course.

Do you buy bond ETFs or go Treasury Direct?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
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Three in a row for me, huh?

So, Saudi Arabia and Iran are pissed at each other. Let's all speculate on there being a war or something and bid the price of oil up...
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
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Three in a row for me, huh?

So, Saudi Arabia and Iran are pissed at each other. Let's all speculate on there being a war or something and bid the price of oil up...

Hoping to trade a 1 day short covering rally and not get caught with your pants down?
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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Shanghai market down 6.86%, trading apparently halted. Nice... Something about a PMI showing contraction got worse.

If the Saudis and Iran don't fuck the region up any worse, oil could trend lower.
 

SketchMaster

Diamond Member
Feb 23, 2005
3,100
149
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LOL, make sure your seats are in the upright position, your seatbelts are on and the tray tables up.

And yeppers, it hurts...

I opened up my portfolio, laughed, then closed it.

Really all you can do some times.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,214
3,627
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Should I max out my tax benefits (401k, ROTH IRA) ASAP when the new year starts? Or do you foresee another large dip (similar or worse than this year)?
I generally do the 401k spread out and the IRAs in one lump as soon as I can in early January.

The 401k at most businesses is set up to be spread out. I often see that there is a limit to how much you can contribute with each paycheck (such as a maximum of 25% of your salary) so that unless you make major dough you can't put it all in at once. Or to get the full company match you often need to spread it out (such as you get a 3% match per paycheck, and if you put it all in at once you only get one match and lose out on all other matches). Or, people just don't have that money lying around and usually need to spread it out.

The spread out 401k gives you the dollar cost averaging method. So, I choose to diversify and do the IRA in one lump. In almost every analysis that I've ever seen, if you have the lump of money to invest, you do best if you invest it now. Plus the IRA portion is tiny compared to the 401k so even if you get the timing wrong, you can't get it very wrong. Suppose you invest the full $5500 IRA amount and the stock market crashes 10%. That loss of $550 is quite small compared to the $18,000 plus match that goes into the 401k. The risk is thus pretty minimal to do the IRA in a lump sum.

My only exception is that I don't like to catch falling knives. I'm waiting a few days to see how this market plunge works out. I'll probably do my IRA investments next week in a lump sum instead of doing it today. Note: I'm putting the money into a money market fund now, so that it is an instant transfer when I do decide to invest it.
 

Uppsala9496

Diamond Member
Nov 2, 2001
5,272
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Just put in my Roth contribution for the year. Now I can forget about it for another 12 months and hope my rate of return is better next year.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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Personal rate of return at +1.8% for 2015.
Ouch.

I made half that much just today on paper because of the market tanking...

Looks like "shorting" Canada is going to make 2016 a nice year again. Hope so, because it's been a pretty nice 2014 and 2015.

Edit: Bothered to type 5 words into google. So, Iran sanctions should be lifted this month based on the rate they're decommissioning centrifuges.
 
Last edited:

Staples

Diamond Member
Oct 28, 2001
4,952
119
106
I see another big year for Amazon. +50%
I am seeing more and more people using Amazon for general every day purchases.
Once the baby boomers get on board, I can see Amazon sales ever increasing.
It's just too easy to open your phone and Buy Now for any product you need.
Their Prime Memberships will continue to grow and their data/server services are top notch.

They will continue to grow no doubt but that doesn't necessarily mean their stock will. They are priced pretty high as it is.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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RE: China stock market.

Give me a break... market drops 7% in one day, only stops because trading is halted, but it goes flat the day after.

Ya, I've read the stories about market intervention.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
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This got serious quick.

WTI is just below $34. Crude inventory down but gasoline inventory exploded...

But hey, the Shanghai market rose like 2% yesterday (today, here) and will probably rise again today (tomorrow, there).
 
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