China's PMI numbers sucked... again. Let's rally!
Might be an AUTO-PLAY video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/29/chin...-down-from-494-in-january-caixin-to-come.html
Profit.Saw gas price jump 20c this morning compared to yesterday. Why does it seem like when prices go down, they trickle down ever so slowly... but when they go up, it's usually a huge jump?
Profit.
Gasoline is an inelastic good. There is no strong connection between the price of gas and the amount the public purchases. I have to get to work whether it is $1/gallon or $5/gallon. I'm certainly not going to drive more or less based on the price.
Thus, when the wholesale gas price goes down, there is no direct connection to the actual drivers. We can be completely oblivious to the wholesale price and it won't affect our purchases. Thus, there is no need for the gas retailers to drop prices right away. They will only drop prices when the competition forces them to. That is a slow game as they try to keep prices as high as they can until they are forced to drop them. Or maybe, they can drop it a slight amount and steal business away when the other station isn't looking.
Gasoline doesn't carry a high profit margin. When the wholesale gas price goes up, they need to raise prices at the pump or go out of business. They can't absorb losses for long. So, they must raise prices quickly.
a lot of the stock in my watch portfolio are up 1 to 9% A little worrisome is they are all trading at below normal volume so I'm not sure what to make of this rally.
Anyone brave or crazy enough to touch Valeant (VRX)? I see that stock and I keep thinking back to Worldcom and Enron. Some of the same analysts who had previously pumped Valeant are now lowering the price targets by much as $100 and jumping away like rats on a sinking ship.
API report: 9.9 million barrel build in crude. Distillates up, gasoline down.
They've been way off from the EIA report the last few weeks, so we'll see. Think it was an API draw and a big EIA build last week.
But fuq this, people. Let's buy!
Got a Vanguard report about their small cap funds. Yeah, they didn't do so hot in 2015. Sucks because I just got into small cap indexes like 2 years ago. Oh well, it's all in a Roth so I won't be able to touch it for a few years.
2016-01-20 -1.3 chg -5.1, score: -6.4 graph: 49.5
2016-01-21 1.6 chg 2.9, score: 4.5 graph: 50.6
2016-01-22 18.1 chg 16.5, score: 34.7 graph: 57.3
2016-01-25 34.5 chg 16.4, score: 50.9 graph: 63.8 BUYIF
2016-01-26 58.7 chg 24.2, score: 82.9 graph: 75.1 BUY
2016-01-27 65.8 chg 7.1, score: 72.9 graph: 82.6 BUY
2016-01-28 71.1 chg 5.3, score: 76.4 graph: 89.0 BUY
2016-01-29 12.9 chg -58.2, score: -45.2 graph: 70.1 (sell in 34.4 days)
2016-02-01 1.3 chg -11.6, score: -10.3 graph: 64.3 (sell in 33.0 days)
2016-02-02 10.9 chg 9.6, score: 20.5 graph: 67.6 (sell in 32.8 days)
2016-02-03 8.7 chg -2.2, score: 6.5 graph: 66.6 (sell in 32.1 days)
2016-02-04 -0.2 chg -8.9, score: -9.0 graph: 62.8 (sell in 30.7 days)
2016-02-05 11.3 chg 11.5, score: 22.8 graph: 66.8 (sell in 30.7 days)
2016-02-08 0.4 chg -10.9, score: -10.4 graph: 62.4 (sell in 29.2 days)
2016-02-09 3.9 chg 3.5, score: 7.4 graph: 63.3 (sell in 28.5 days)
2016-02-10 3.2 chg -0.7, score: 2.6 graph: 62.7 (sell in 27.7 days)
2016-02-11 -3.2 chg -6.5, score: -9.7 graph: 59.8 (sell in 26.3 days)
2016-02-12 -4.7 chg -1.4, score: -6.1 graph: 58.6 (sell in 25.0 days)
2016-02-16 -13.4 chg -8.7, score: -22.0 graph: 54.7 (sell in 23.1 days)
2016-02-17 -20.9 chg -7.5, score: -28.4 graph: 50.9 (sell in 20.9 days)
2016-02-18 -9.9 chg 11.0, score: 1.1 graph: 54.4 (sell in 19.9 days)
2016-02-19 3.7 chg 13.7, score: 17.4 graph: 59.5 (sell in 19.7 days)
2016-02-22 2.3 chg -1.5, score: 0.8 graph: 58.8 (sell in 18.7 days)
2016-02-23 2.8 chg 0.5, score: 3.2 graph: 58.6 (sell in 17.8 days)
2016-02-24 1.3 chg -1.4, score: -0.1 graph: 57.7 (sell in 16.8 days)
2016-02-25 -1.8 chg -3.1, score: -4.9 graph: 56.0 (sell in 15.6 days)
2016-02-26 -4.2 chg -2.5, score: -6.7 graph: 54.6 (sell in 14.3 days)
2016-02-29 -2.8 chg 1.4, score: -1.4 graph: 54.6 (sell in 13.3 days)
2016-03-01 -0.9 chg 1.9, score: 1.1 graph: 55.0 (sell in 12.3 days)
2016-03-02 -0.6 chg 0.3, score: -0.3 graph: 54.7 (sell in 11.3 days)
2016-03-03 -2.6 chg -2.0, score: -4.7 graph: 53.5 (sell in 7.1 days)Small cap stocks are the riskiest (most volatile) group. Like KB said, they tend to go up fast and fall hard. For example, the worst 3-year period for small stocks was a 70% loss. The worst 3-year period for large stocks was a 60% loss.Got a Vanguard report about their small cap funds. Yeah, they didn't do so hot in 2015. Sucks because I just got into small cap indexes like 2 years ago. Oh well, it's all in a Roth so I won't be able to touch it for a few years.
An update on my trades and opinions......
2. [ Sadly, its founder also was indicted for bid rigging going back to 2012. He was found dead this morning on what appears to have been suicide (a high speed crash into a the wall of a bridge). RIP Aubrey!
An update on my trades and opinions......
1. UPL.... I thought oil/gas play Ultra Petroleum would go bankrupt by March 1st (I had a few puts), as they indicated they did not believe they could continue as going concern and would not be able to make payments on debt that were due on that day. The stock has been as low as 19 CENTS. TODAY, it hit 79 cents on news that waivers were given in order to work out a deal. Also, oil has been going up. I traded it recently long for a quick flip.
2. CHK....Chesapeake was also as low as $1.50 on bankruptcy fears last month. It rallied to $2.50 and I went long a few shares. I sold for a quick buck at $2.79. Todays quote on CHK? $3.79 was the high!!! Sadly, its founder also was indicted for bid rigging going back to 2012. He was found dead this morning on what appears to have been suicide (a high speed crash into a the wall of a bridge). RIP Aubrey!
3. SUNE....SUNE is so crazy. I sold for a loss a few days ago just before it fell to $1.50 on more legal troubles related to its purchase of VSLR and that it would delay its financial reports due to an internal investigation. Today it was up to $1.79 on news the banks might back out of financing the VSLR deal. Everyone knows it cant afford the deal anymore and if it is forced to back out, it might be a $3 stock again. Maybe!!
I'm going to go ahead and exit now. It looks like the automated sell signal is going to be generated in a few days anyway and I really dont want to risk any strange games involving payrolls tomorrow.
and what 7 or 8 straight years of S&P 500 bull-market?
It wont be 8.
Recovery rates are already below 20%, this early in the cycle. This is going to be very bad.
Housing normally leads us out of recessions. But that hasn't been the case this time around. People are just starting to feel secure in their jobs and that lack of security has prevented a lot of people from considering this kind of major purchase. Underwriting reqs for new loans are also a lot tighter than they have been historically. The savings rate is about what we saw from 2000-2005. It then dropped right before the bubble popped and there have been several spikes over the current 5% rate.I thought the economy was about to "turn the corner" and reach "escape velocity".... that is what I heard on the tube.
All that it needs is more QE and some negative rates.
.
Don't forget the millions of people with foreclosures or short sales can't get a mortgage if they wanted to until at least 7 years have passed (especially with tighter lending requirements). There is what, about 15 million families left out of the housing market for now. The foreclosure peak was in 2010, so the bulk of these people won't even have a chance to get back in until about 2017.Housing normally leads us out of recessions. But that hasn't been the case this time around. People are just starting to feel secure in their jobs and that lack of security has prevented a lot of people from considering this kind of major purchase. Underwriting reqs for new loans are also a lot tighter than they have been historically.