***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

I'm more inclined to trust academics as well since at least their work has been peer reviewed and not based on magical ability to divine the future.

I'm not... I "trust" Shiller and Shiller alone -- if you even want to call it trust.

I've seen the complete bullshit "academics" have pumped out to justify numerous things. There have been reports of major corporate/industry funding received by academic institutions as well.

 

[Charmonium]

I'm not... I "trust" Shiller and Shiller alone -- if you even want to call it trust.

I've seen the complete bullshit "academics" have pumped out to justify numerous things. There have been reports of major corporate/industry funding received by academic institutions as well.

True - even of Nobel prize winners (or whatever it is you get for economics). Econ is far from an exact science. So much is human psychology that there are no models out there that can accurately predict much of anything.

That's why you can't really take anyone at their word. You need to understand their rationale and the facts supporting their conclusions. You might have sound logic but bad or incomplete data. Garbage in, garbage out. And your data is almost by definition always at least incomplete and often inaccurate.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Genworth the mortgage insurer?

Good luck with that one. I hear they insure mortgages in Canada and Australia. Average price for residential property in Toronto is like $600k now on ~$80k average household income, over a million in Vancouver on ~$75k average. But don't worry, it's all rich Chinese nationals who for some reason still need mortgages according to a study...

Genworth will do OK in the long term. But shares may be flat between earnings reports. Book value increased to $28.19, although with financial companies a lot of that is how assets and liabilities are accounted for. But revenue was also less than expected so there may be more head winds to come.

If the two year cycle I mentioned above happens then $10-15 by 2018 could happen.

 

[Imp]

This is good... Another "study" about foreign ownership in Vancouver:

..., said people's dreams of owning a home are being crushed because they can't compete with foreign investors and no longer accept "distraction" excuses such as low interest rates for the state of the super-heated market.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/sfu-real-estate-study-foreign-buyers-1.3572499

I have no doubt that Chinese nationals are buying/"investing" in Vancouver. But seriously, I'm supposed to ignore the record low interest rates, home-ownership obsessed culture, (especially among Asians, of which ~35% of Vancouver citizens are), 72% home ownership rate among Canadians, completely lack of personal finance skills among the general populace (house prices only ever go up, 90% of net worth leveraged 19-1 in one property == good), insane Canadian debt-income ratio of 1.65, and many reports of bank of mom+dad providing down payments to kiddies. And when people complain about foreigners online, I often see "certified Canadians" talk about their own 2+ investment properties.

Ya, it's the foreigners. All those foreigners must have bailed from Hong Kong and Australia looking at their stalled housing markets, and they only come to Vancouver and Toronto now.

 

[Charmonium]

You need to get the pick of the guy from the "Aliens" meme and generate a new one that says "Chinese."

Never mind, here you go

 

[Imp]

The stupidest thing is that it's often Canadians of Chinese descent bitching about Chinese nationals. What they forget is that all the white people and other non-Chinese lump them in with the "foreigners." Some stupid "academic" study did that by assuming people with Asian/non-white sounding names were foreigners.

 

[Imp]

Jackpot. I am shocked. So shocked.

Two of Australia's biggest banks on Monday said they are investigating suspected fraud involving false declarations by a number of home loan borrowers who rely on foreign income.

ANZ Banking Group and Westpac Banking Corp said the alleged fraud was discovered during internal investigations and posed no credit risk.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bank...-foreign-home-loan-fraud-20160509-gopmdc.html

I'm sure Countrywide and Bear Stearns said everything was fine up to the end too.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Covered my Chesapeake short puts for a loss, although I probably should not have. Stop loss prevails, and if oil goes to the $30s, who knows what could happen.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Also Genworth took a hit today, but I think it goes back up. No positions in the stock.

Just long a few QQQ puts.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Is Solar City the next Sun Edison??? I was tempted to buy puts or calls but they were very expensive. Fell from $22 to $18 or bigger than expected losses and lowered guidance. Will it go under $10 this year?

 

[holden j caufield]

Status Filled at $2.83
Symbol AMD
Description ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC COM ISIN #xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Action Sell
Quantity 4,000 Shares
Route CITADEL DERIVATIVES GROUP, L.L.C.
Order Type Limit at $2.83

They broke it up in 4 orders to fill today

Yesterday I had 4000 sell at 2.81

Symbol AMD
Description ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC COM ISIN #US
Shares -100.000
Price 2.81
Amount $273.04
Commission $7.95
Fees $0.01


they keep screwing me and sold 100 shares charging me $8 to sell 100 shares and 3900 unsold when 2.81 was hit multiple times. So I had to sell 3900 lot and get charged another $8 the next day.

I honeestly don't remember the bid but it's such a highly traded stock and my 4000 is such a small number I can't imagine it not being able to be filled.

Anyone use interactive brokers?

This is a pretty good documentary about how rigged certain things are.

http://www.marketswiki.com/wiki/Haim_Bodek

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFQJNeQDDHA

https://youtu.be/kFQJNeQDDHA?t=1633

 

[FelixDeCat]

CNBC's Becky Quick admits along with Trump that America can in no way, form or fashion repay $20 TRILLION in debt.

He said, "we have to renegotiate with creditors" to bring down the National Debt. Buy back old bonds at a discount.

 

[Artdeco]

I guessed right on stamps.com, picked up 1K shares, sold the options for $7500 @ 88.50.

Seriously considered just holding, but pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered...

 

[FelixDeCat]

I guessed right on stamps.com, picked up 1K shares, sold the options for $7500 @ 88.50.

Seriously considered just holding, but pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered...

Nice trade. What made you decide to get into it?

 

[Artdeco]

Nice trade. What made you decide to get into it?

They surprised on last earnings, sometimes lightning strikes twice.

 

[Imp]

Woohoo, Toyota getting in on that phat share buyback game. Negative rates in Japan, near zero or negative everywhere else in the West, why not?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rst-profit-drop-in-five-years-on-stronger-yen

Edit: Oh, and the oil sands are restarting very soon. I'm genuinely surprised that WTI didn't rocket up to $50 over the past week. The fire's way out east in the middle of nowhere now. There may be some oil facilities out there, but I think the big ones are closer to town.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmon...nds-companies-fort-mcmurray-restart-1.3575015

 

[Charmonium]

CNBC's Becky Quick admits along with Trump that America can in no way, form or fashion repay $20 TRILLION in debt.

He said, "we have to renegotiate with creditors" to bring down the National Debt. Buy back old bonds at a discount.

Trump is an idiot. I don't want to get into P&N territory here but anyone who thinks it's a good idea for the US to "renegotiate" our debt doesn't understand the int'l financial system or the role the USD plays in it.

 

[sm625]

Trump is an idiot. I don't want to get into P&N territory here but anyone who thinks it's a good idea for the US to "renegotiate" our debt doesn't understand the int'l financial system or the role the USD plays in it.

The US "renegotiates" its debt each year when it runs a deficit. The deficit represents a constant devaluation of the existing debt. The large the deficit, the larger the devaluation. In layman's terms its called money printing. The other tool of debt renegotiation is when the treasury directly prints US notes like Kennedy did. This is literal money printing.

 

[Charmonium]

The US "renegotiates" its debt each year when it runs a deficit. The deficit represents a constant devaluation of the existing debt. The large the deficit, the larger the devaluation. In layman's terms its called money printing. The other tool of debt renegotiation is when the treasury directly prints US notes like Kennedy did. This is literal money printing.

It's not a renegotiation of NOMINAL value. That's the issue. Everybody understands that as the reserve currency of the world, the US has certain perquisites that it enjoys.

When people buy a Treasury bond, unless it's a TIPS, they aren't buying a stream of REAL returns but NOMINAL returns.

 

[sm625]

2016-04-26      -4.9 chg   -6.6, score:  -11.5
2016-04-27      -4.2 chg    0.7, score:   -3.5
2016-04-28     -34.1 chg  -29.9, score:  -64.0
2016-04-29      -1.6 chg   32.4, score:   30.8
2016-05-02      -5.8 chg   -4.2, score:  -10.0
2016-05-03      -3.5 chg    2.3, score:   -1.2
2016-05-04      -6.8 chg   -3.3, score:  -10.1
2016-05-05       1.7 chg    8.5, score:   10.2
2016-05-06      19.5 chg   17.9, score:   37.4
2016-05-09      32.3 chg   12.7, score:   45.0 BUYIF
2016-05-10      11.8 chg  -20.4, score:   -8.6
2016-05-11       8.1 chg   -3.8, score:    4.3

My indicator has produced a potential BUY signal which has failed to confirm. I am interpreting this as a bearish signal.

 

[Imp]

Well, EIA and API oil reports are miles apart -- again. WTI popped up. Funny, because the shutdown of a lot of oil sands production has been in the news since late last week. WTI barely moved then, but now that the oil sands are resuming operations, they pop because a report said there was a draw last week -- likely due to the loss of ~1 million barrels/day from the oil sands since Thursday/Friday.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Bought a couple of CSIQ calls for January 2017. Hopefully we reach $30 sometime this year. Otherwise, Im out of the market until June.

Congrats to them for a great quarter and the outgoing CFO, "Michael".

 

[Imp]

Valeant is all over the road. Went from like CA$ 35 to $45, it was like $33 earlier today when I saw the ticker roll by.

Oh, and something about Italian banks continuing to tank from bad loans. Brexit polls are all over the road, I don't really believe the ones the UK MSM put out for some reason...

 

[Michael]

Bought a couple of CSIQ calls for January 2017. Hopefully we reach $30 sometime this year. Otherwise, Im out of the market until June.

Congrats to them for a great quarter and the outgoing CFO, "Michael".

Not too bad a quarter to deliver as my parting gift, I think.

I'll be at another place that I cannot talk about once I am there soon enough.

Michael

 

[Imp]

No Brexit yet, but UK is having issues with their industrial stuff.

A slight pickup in activity in March was not enough to offset sharp falls in output earlier in 2016 and meant production dropped for the second successive quarter – the definition of a recession.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...turing-sector-falls-back-into-recession-steel

So, tack that onto the list of great news all around the world. With the EU in trouble, I'm surprised they didn't have problems sooner. But hey, the housing industry is doing great in the UK...

Edit: Oh wait... People are apparently having trouble paying their interest-only mortgages. Delinquencies were up in Canada too.

Growing numbers of people with maturing interest-only mortgages are raiding the equity in their homes to pay off the debt, figures reveal.

http://www.theguardian.com/money/20...uity-release-to-repay-interest-only-mortgages

It's almost like people went overboard on the borrowing money thing and are having trouble repaying their debts... but what do I know.