***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[JTsyo]

What a run for nVidia. I had it at $15 or so a few years back and sold some covered calls. Didn't think it would move much and look at it now.

 

[holden j caufield]

What a run for nVidia. I had it at $15 or so a few years back and sold some covered calls. Didn't think it would move much and look at it now.

It was in the 20's just a few months ago. AMD was trading at 1.8 , how do know? I owned them and sold them way too early.

 

[Artdeco]

FB closed @ 19 cents below my OOTM CC . Nice.

 

[Miramonti]

FB closed @ 19 cents below my OOTM CC . Nice.

Whew, well done. :thumbsup:

 

[sm625]

I am now extremely bearish on all the major indices.

 

[SketchMaster]

It was in the 20's just a few months ago. AMD was trading at 1.8 , how do know? I owned them and sold them way too early.

Ouch. That sucks.

I have a little in AMD, but got burned on that and I'm only holding it to see if it goes up enough to break even. I bought a bunch of NVDA back when it was $19.10, sold 30% of it when it was at $31 to reinvest elsewhere, and will stay long on what I have.

 

[Imp]

S&P 500 up 1% yesterday, down 1% today... it's been hovering between 2040 and 2090 for well over a week now. It's probably been at 200 to 2100 for over a month now.

We gonna do something or sit pretty?

Boring month is boring. Sell in may, go away... June is where the action is at: Fed mid-June, Brexit late June, fun fun fun!

 

[Imp]

So, um, there's a chance that we may wake up and the oil sands went kaboom. The fire, which i thought was burning in the middle of nowhere away from the huge oil sands facilities, is now at the oil sands. I held COS, which has a single operation, Syncrude, for like a year before it tanked and while it tanked. This is a good reminder about risk and random shit bringing down the house...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/fort-mcmurray-oilsands-sites-fire-1.3585921

And Japan's Q1 GDP grew a whole 1.7% annualized... after all that QE and negative rate policy.

Both Hong Kong and Shanghai indexed are currently down over 1.5% during lunch. Shanghai is back under 2800 points.

 

[Charmonium]

Are oil sands like coal deposits such that if they get set on fire you can't put them out? There are coal deposits in Pennsylvania that have been burning for over 50 years. But I think these are huge veins of coal. Would oil sands also burn?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/01/pictures/130108-centralia-mine-fire/

 

[FelixDeCat]

Fed almost guarantees June rate hike. Short the metals!!

^NUGT ouch!

 

[FelixDeCat]

9 mins later......NUGT $92....and still falling....

 

[holden j caufield]

9 mins later......NUGT $92....and still falling....

why is a 1/4 percent move that damaging to the metals? The dollars moves up marginally so gold drops a bit? But I don't see why such a move much lower.

 

[sm625]

S&P 500 up 1% yesterday, down 1% today... it's been hovering between 2040 and 2090 for well over a week now. It's probably been at 200 to 2100 for over a month now.

We gonna do something or sit pretty?

Boring month is boring. Sell in may, go away... June is where the action is at: Fed mid-June, Brexit late June, fun fun fun!

What is happening is someone is buying big every time the S&P 500 drops below its 2015 closing price. When they run out of money, if they run out of money, we could see a massive drop very quickly. 400 points down in a month is a real possibility.

 

[Imp]

Are oil sands like coal deposits such that if they get set on fire you can't put them out? There are coal deposits in Pennsylvania that have been burning for over 50 years. But I think these are huge veins of coal. Would oil sands also burn?

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2013/01/pictures/130108-centralia-mine-fire/

I'm not concerned about the actual oil sands and tailing ponds going up, it's the shit they use in all their extraction processes that's supposedly flammable. From what I understand, the oil sands are essentially converting natural gas to crude oil -- need a lot of energy to cook/melt bitumen out of sand. Gotta store that natural gas and other chemicals somewhere on-site.

What is happening is someone is buying big every time the S&P 500 drops below its 2015 closing price. When they run out of money, if they run out of money, we could see a massive drop very quickly. 400 points down in a month is a real possibility.

Going to sound paranoid, but I can see it dropping to 1200 or lower based on the charts showing correlation between various metrics I've seen -- I also expect it to recover to 2000 eventually based on historic trends.

Oh, and lulz, June Fed hike in play. Argh, there be an auto-play video, matey...

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/18/federal-reserve-minutes.html

 

[Charmonium]

A June rate hike could be in the cards according to the fed minutes

The market had been pricing in a very low probability of this. I think it was less than 20%. Apparently the fed wasn't happy with such low expectations and decided to jawbone the market.

I think they want to raise rates at this point and are mainly looking for a good excuse to do it rather than a valid reason. They'll want to give the market time to digest the re-jiggered probabilities so my guess is still for July for political reasons but June wouldn't surprise me and now shouldn't surprise anyone else either.

 

[Imp]

On the bright side, if you draw a straight, best-fit line through the last three bull markets using SPY, it has to break 220 to get back on track... only 8% rally needed?

With the post-December 2015 market reaction to the last Fed hike, that should be easy peasy.

 

[Miramonti]

What is happening is someone is buying big every time the S&P 500 drops below its 2015 closing price. When they run out of money, if they run out of money, we could see a massive drop very quickly. 400 points down in a month is a real possibility.

"someone"? What are you referring to to suggest its an isolated buyer?

Is anyone bullish on the market? I doubt it, and one knows what happens when 90% think one thing...

Not that I'm getting long everything lol.

 

[Imp]

"someone"? What are you referring to to suggest its an isolated buyer?

Is anyone bullish on the market? I doubt it, and one knows what happens when 90% think one thing...

Not that I'm getting long everything lol.

I honestly don't know what most people are thinking about the stock market right now. "They" seem bearish on the NASDAQ but I am not seeing a generally bearish sentiment on the DOW or S&P. Word is that institutional investors have been cashing out for months now.

In contrast, everyone be "buy now or never" on housing everywhere except Hong Kong and Syria.

Oh, and AUD is down to the low US$ 0.70 range yet CAD is still upper $US 0.70 range. They looked pretty coupled up until the RBA (Australia central bank) cut interest rates. Fun fact: RBA has their interest rate at 1.75%, Canada is at 0.50%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

why is a 1/4 percent move that damaging to the metals? The dollars moves up marginally so gold drops a bit? But I don't see why such a move much lower.

People bought metals as a hedge against negative interest rates. Now that the US will continue raising rates as opposed to the rest of world easing means a much stronger dollar magnified against cheaper currencies.

Today's NUGT Gold Minder 3x action -

108 high and 84.67 close, -23.69%

 

[KB]

Walmart is one of a handful of retailers to beat on earnings. Low cost retailers like Dollar General, TJX have also beat, while middle-tier retailers like GAP, Kohls and Target are suffering.

Analysts have long predicted the death of Walmart, claiming that customers are buying up to Target and Kohls. Now that customers are returning to Walmart and Dollar General it may be a bad sign overall. It may be that consumers are reducing spending and again trying to save money due to low income growth. Something to keep an eye on.

 

[sm625]

"someone"? What are you referring to to suggest its an isolated buyer?

Is anyone bullish on the market? I doubt it, and one knows what happens when 90% think one thing...

Pension funds and the corporations themselves are bullish. Buybacks are still the primary source of inflows. But pension funds being even more desperate for yields could allocate even more money into stocks. We saw the same thing in 2008, even as late as June they were pulling billions out of bonds and piling into stocks. It is laughable how late they can be.

The "someones" I'm referring to are primarily the banks who are frontrunning the buybacks.

 

[dullard]

People bought metals as a hedge against negative interest rates. Now that the US will continue raising rates as opposed to the rest of world easing means a much stronger dollar magnified against cheaper currencies.

Today's NUGT Gold Minder 3x action -

108 high and 84.67 close, -23.69%

Like I said in this thread 2 weeks ago:

I don't like NUGT...I trade DSLV.

Gold is on a multi-year drop, and it has another ~$600/ounce more to drop. Sure you can get rich on the temporary bumps up. But with all the headwinds against gold increases (stronger economy, fed increasing rates, the great recession headache is ending, etc, none of these are surprises), that is a very, very risky move. If I'm playing with fire, I might as well play with the wind at my back.

NUGT will open quite a bit lower than its close today and DSLV will open quite a bit higher than yesterday's close.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Like I said in this thread 2 weeks ago:

Gold is on a multi-year drop, and it has another ~$600/ounce more to drop. Sure you can get rich on the temporary bumps up. But with all the headwinds against gold increases (stronger economy, fed increasing rates, the great recession headache is ending, etc, none of these are surprises), that is a very, very risky move. If I'm playing with fire, I might as well play with the wind at my back.

NUGT will open quite a bit lower than its close today and DSLV will open quite a bit higher than yesterday's close.

I agree.

 

[sm625]

Gold is on a multi-year drop, and it has another ~$600/ounce more to drop.

I'm sure someone was saying the same thing in early 1977. (Maybe they werent calling for $600 drops back then but I'm sure there were similar calls made in inflation-adjusted terms)

If history repeats we are looking at $8000 an ounce within 4 years.

 

[ponyo]

I'm buying the dip in gold and silver.