***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... House prices in Vancouver and Toronto keep going up! Record sales, record prices, BBQ!

But it looks like people can't afford to fill their overpriced fiberboard boxes with anything?

Retail sub-sector sales in March 2016.

Source: Statistics Canada

Home furnishings stores: Down 6.6 per cent

Supermarkets and other grocery stores: Down 0.4 per cent

https://www.thestar.com/business/20...nishing-sales-pull-retail-lower-in-march.html

That's odd, you'd think that such an on-fire housing market would lead to people buying useless shit to furnish their homes. It's almost like people are trading empty houses...

 

[Imp]

Umm...

Here's the "Delinquencies on All Loans and Leases, Commercial and Industrial, All Commercial Banks" chart up to 2015 Q4. The 2016 Q1 data has, apparently, been released but it isn't available from the St. Louis Fed yet. Spoiler: it goes up in 2016 Q1. A lot.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DALLCIACBEP

But the economy is great?

 

[Miramonti]

Umm...

Here's the "Delinquencies on All Loans and Leases, Commercial and Industrial, All Commercial Banks" chart up to 2015 Q4. The 2016 Q1 data has, apparently, been released but it isn't available from the St. Louis Fed yet. Spoiler: it goes up in 2016 Q1. A lot.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/DALLCIACBEP

But the economy is great?

This is not my forté (I have none ) but that looks no where near a bubble/disaster (even with a modest increase for q1.)

 

[Imp]

The chart, as it is now with only 2015 Q4 data, I agree, not a big deal. However, 2016 Q1 data is supposedly out there somewhere and what I've seen is that it pops up to the ~27,000 range.

Edit: FML, found it. Goes from ~$18.0 billion to $27.8 billion.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/

Under "Charge-off and Delinquency Rates" --> "Delinquencies/All banks" --> "Delinquencies of Commercial & Industrial loans; all banks"

...Or wait for the St. Louis Fed to update their site.

 

[Miramonti]

The chart, as it is now with only 2015 Q4 data, I agree, not a big deal. However, 2016 Q1 data is supposedly out there somewhere and what I've seen is that it pops up to the ~27,000 range.

Edit: FML, found it. Goes from ~$18.0 billion to $27.8 billion.

http://www.federalreserve.gov/datadownload/

Under "Charge-off and Delinquency Rates" --> "Delinquencies/All banks" --> "Delinquencies of Commercial & Industrial loans; all banks"

...Or wait for the St. Louis Fed to update their site.

That would equal the biggest spike on the graph, certainly significant, where the second biggest would be then Q3 to Q4 2008, 25,600 --> 36,400.

I made a quick overlay of the delinquency chart in your link with a (linear) chart of the dow jones over same time.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Lending Club is one crazy stock. One fiasco after another has made it fall $20+ to $3. Now back over $4 on news of a big investment from an Asian hedge fund. Their problem is funding however with current lenders (loan funders/ investors) worried they might not receive full payment on existing loans, thus the need to attract more funding to stay in business.

I think they may go bankrupt unless they can find a new source of cash to loan out. If they can, it could go back to $10. I have no current position either way, its just an interesting story to watch. The put writers aren't offering much premium (considering the risks) so they must think LC will survive one way or another.

Ticker: LC

 

[KB]

Lending Club is one crazy stock. One fiasco after another has made it fall $20+ to $3. Now back over $4 on news of a big investment from an Asian hedge fund. Their problem is funding however with current lenders (loan funders/ investors) worried they might not receive full payment on existing loans, thus the need to attract more funding to stay in business.

I think they may go bankrupt unless they can find a new source of cash to loan out. If they can, it could go back to $10. I have no current position either way, its just an interesting story to watch. The put writers aren't offering much premium (considering the risks) so they must think LC will survive one way or another.

Ticker: LC

I watched the stock in fascination too as I am sure its been a wild ride for shareholders. I would avoid the stock at all costs. I believe regulators will come after them for acting like a bank without the regulations/capital requirements of a bank.

 

[sm625]

Lending Club is donezo. It has gone consistently downward since its IPO. It was and is nothing but a scam. The debt is all unsecured. It is all worthless. Nonrecoverable. And if the credit cycle is heading back downwards, then they arent going to make more loans. But even if they did, no one is going to pay back the loans. So they are better off not making any new loans. Either way, they are a zero. They arent going to get a bailout. I am 100% sure they knew all this at the time of the IPO. They laughed all the way to the marina...

 

[holden j caufield]

Lending Club is donezo. It has gone consistently downward since its IPO. It was and is nothing but a scam. The debt is all unsecured. It is all worthless. Nonrecoverable. And if the credit cycle is heading back downwards, then they arent going to make more loans. But even if they did, no one is going to pay back the loans. So they are better off not making any new loans. Either way, they are a zero. They arent going to get a bailout. I am 100% sure they knew all this at the time of the IPO. They laughed all the way to the marina...

Pretty much, I actually don't know squat about them but is it some kind of social lending where you pool your money together and lend to strangers without collateral? Seems like 100% failure rate.

I own googl so I'm happy it jumped $16 but I just don't understand how on a day the police raided their Euro headquarters for tax evasion?

 

[Imp]

Oh look, Canadian home owners might be having money troubles. Who woulda guessed with house prices averaging close to $500k and record debt levels.

Auto-play video in link...
http://business.financialpost.com/p...money-to-meet-their-expenses-new-survey-finds

About four in 10 Canadian homeowners says they were “caught short” in the past year without enough money to meet their expenses, according to a survey out Tuesday.

...Canadians with rising debt who could be sitting on a potential land mine if interest rates start rising...

I especially love how there's only trouble hitting if interest rates rise... The business/credit cycle, apparently, doesn't happen anymore -- some sort of new paradigm without recessions and high unemployment. It's not like commodity prices tanked and there have been mass layoffs country wide in the past year. There definitely wasn't a "technical" recession in Canada the first half of 2015. No, no, it's all about interest rates.

 

[Artdeco]

Have been selling covered calls on stamps.com, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

 

[Artdeco]

Damn it, bought some GOOGL with unsettled funds yesterday and I forgot about that damn lawsuit with Oracle about API's. Can't sell till Friday, jury done for the day today, hope they keep arguing till Friday when I can sell. Just got off the phone with my brokerage, I can sell on open Friday.

If you follow the letter of the law, Google/Alphabet will lose. Of course they'll appeal, but their stock will take a hit in the meantime, would be a better time to buy.

Fusk me for not doing due diligence prior to purchasing

 

[Hacp]

A loss might already be built in. It really depends on what inside info the insiders have and have traded on.

 

[Artdeco]

A loss might already be built in. It really depends on what inside info the insiders have and have traded on.

It'll still take a hit, and if you go by the letter of the law, they'll lose.

It's the former CEO of Sun's fault, if he had any business sense, he would have licensed the API's to Google for a dollar, but no, he punted it. That gives Oracle a good shot at winning, since they bought Sun and their patents.

Bought back my covered calls, took a couple hundred dollar hit . Hopefully the jury doesn't come back with a verdict till Friday afternoon so they can go home for the weekend.

 

[FelixDeCat]

BABA has a booboo over its accounting methods and faces an SEC inquiry.

-8.25% today.

 

[Imp]

Woohoo, 50 point S&P 500 rally... something about house sales or prices going up.

 

[Charmonium]

Woohoo, 50 point S&P 500 rally... something about house sales or prices going up.

Part of the problem currently is the fact that people aren't spending. This was taken as a sign that this might be changing. If we can get some money velocity going, that would help the economy out greatly.

 

[Imp]

Part of the problem currently is the fact that people aren't spending. This was taken as a sign that this might be changing. If we can get some money velocity going, that would help the economy out greatly.

But if they aren't spending and the Fed is hiking rates, where is this new found confidence in buying the most expensive item most people will ever purchase coming from... Unless the banks are relaxing lending standards -- it's worked in Canada, UK, Australia, and the US pre-2008.

 

[dullard]

But if they aren't spending and the Fed is hiking rates, where is this new found confidence in buying the most expensive item most people will ever purchase coming from... Unless the banks are relaxing lending standards -- it's worked in Canada, UK, Australia, and the US pre-2008.

Short sale and bankruptcies are just NOW coming off of credit reports. The forclosure peak was 2009 and 2010. 7 years later it comes off your credit report. 2009 + 7 years = 2016. Meaning that 5.7 million families are suddenly having their credit scores skyrocket this year and next. Banks don't need to change their lending standards at all and then suddenly a massive influx of buyers are possible.

Combine that with Fannie Mae just announcing in March that they now have reduced the mandatory time to 2 years after a foreclosure or short sale.

So, ultimately, the lending standards were lowered at the EXACT moment that people have skyrocketing credit scores. I would expect the next couple of years to have much stronger home sales than the previous few years. More home sales = more home improvement purchases, more furniture purchases, etc. That 18% of our economy has just received a steroid shot. Plan your investments accordingly.

The fed hikes from essentially zero to nearly zero will have no impact on this. The fed would need many much larger hikes to dent home sales.

 

[Hacp]

Short sale and bankruptcies are just NOW coming off of credit reports. The forclosure peak was 2009 and 2010. 7 years later it comes off your credit report. 2009 + 7 years = 2016. Meaning that 5.7 million families are suddenly having their credit scores skyrocket this year and next. Banks don't need to change their lending standards at all and then suddenly a massive influx of buyers are possible.

Combine that with Fannie Mae just announcing in March that they now have reduced the mandatory time to 2 years after a foreclosure or short sale.

So, ultimately, the lending standards were lowered at the EXACT moment that people have skyrocketing credit scores. I would expect the next couple of years to have much stronger home sales than the previous few years. More home sales = more home improvement purchases, more furniture purchases, etc. That 18% of our economy has just received a steroid shot. Plan your investments accordingly.

The fed hikes from essentially zero to nearly zero will have no impact on this. The fed would need many much larger hikes to dent home sales.

Nice. Higher home prices means less people can afford homes and more families renting. I can raise my prices!

 

[Charmonium]

But if they aren't spending and the Fed is hiking rates, where is this new found confidence in buying the most expensive item most people will ever purchase coming from... Unless the banks are relaxing lending standards -- it's worked in Canada, UK, Australia, and the US pre-2008.

It's sort of a self-fulling prophecy. If the fed raises rates, everyone figures that they think the economy is healthy and so it's all systems go - that in turn causes the result you originally predicted, a better economy.

Economics is some twisted shit dude.

 

[Imp]

Short sale and bankruptcies are just NOW coming off of credit reports. The forclosure peak was 2009 and 2010. 7 years later it comes off your credit report. 2009 + 7 years = 2016. Meaning that 5.7 million families are suddenly having their credit scores skyrocket this year and next. Banks don't need to change their lending standards at all and then suddenly a massive influx of buyers are possible.

Combine that with Fannie Mae just announcing in March that they now have reduced the mandatory time to 2 years after a foreclosure or short sale.

Sweet. Massive influx of formerly low quality credit holders.

It's sort of a self-fulling prophecy. If the fed raises rates, everyone figures that they think the economy is healthy and so it's all systems go - that in turn causes the result you originally predicted, a better economy.

Economics is some twisted shit dude.

Fed should stop being a pussy then and raise those rates 4 times this year like they planned.

 

[Charmonium]

Fed should stop being a pussy then and raise those rates 4 times this year like they planned.

I'm betting on 3 this year. Second in July and third in December.

 

[Artdeco]

It's math, politics, and crowd psychology, what could go wrong?

 

[brianmanahan]

It's math, politics, and crowd psychology, what could go wrong?

something something dutch tulips