If it means anything the bank I work for has a commercial delinquency rate of less than 1/2 of 1%. The secret is short maturity dates (annual renewals), deep collateralization, close eye on covenants and required financial statements, lots of oversight and internal / external audits (state, federal, private). Also, it helps to have people who like to stay employed.
What's the logic for that? You would think that temp employment would go down in 2 very different scenarios - 1) fewer workers are needed so the numbers decline. But in that case you would also expect to see an increase in unemployment. And 2) There are more perm jobs so people are being transitioned from temp to full employment.
I think it probably depends. Most contractors work through an agency which may or may not provide them with a salary independent of the contract they are working on. If they get paid on a 1099 I would guess yes. Otherwise, maybe not.Do temporary workers include "contractors?" I've heard of "contractors" being classified as "between contracts" and not qualifying for unemployment.
Solar will be the best investment for 2016, followed by Biotech (again).
What's the logic for that? You would think that temp employment would go down in 2 very different scenarios - 1) fewer workers are needed so the numbers decline. But in that case you would also expect to see an increase in unemployment. And 2) There are more perm jobs so people are being transitioned from temp to full employment.
I can see this going either way at this point. If full time employment is indeed contracting and the most recent numbers and revisions aren't just an aberration, then scenario (1) seems more likely. But if unemployment really is decreasing as indicated by the current 4.7% rate, then scenario 2 seems more likely.
That temps chart only seems to go back 3 recessions and for the first one, it's not really clear that there is a correlation.
http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/06/news/economy/janet-yellen-federal-reserve-us-economy/index.htmlThis spring, consumer spending too has picked up considerably and wage growth is showing some -- albeit small -- signs of momentum.
Yellen described the mix of good consumer news and bad jobs news as "countervailing forces."
"I see good reasons to expect that the positive forces supporting employment growth and higher inflation will continue to outweigh the negative ones," Yellen said.
She pointed out that jobless claims have declined in May and that more workers are feeling confident about finding a job, as measured by the quits rate.
The Fed Chair also touched on global concerns, such as China's slowing economy and referendum vote in the United Kingdom, also known as Brexit. Yellen said a Brexit vote to leave the European Union would have "significant economic repercussions."
Yellen and the rest of the Fed's committee meet June 14-15.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress on Wednesday he doesn't believe the economy will slip into a recession and rejected the notion raised by his predecessor, Alan Greenspan, that the economic expansion, which started in late 2001, could be running out of steam.
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Last week the Fed again held a key interest rate steady at 5.25 percent, which hasn't budged since August. But the Fed also said there was a possibility that rates could go down or up.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson both acknowledged problems in the U.S. economy Thursday, but both said they believe the nation will avoid falling into recession.
The Federal Reserve is also meeting and could decide to further reduce its key target rate for overnight lending to 2%.
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Data in earlier April from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed unemployment rising to 5.1%, from 4.8% the previous month, and 4.4% in March 2007.
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Earlier this month, Bernanke, speaking before Congress’ Joint Economic Committee, remained optimistic that the economy would turn around in the second half of 2008.
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Bernanke expects the economy to be growing at or above its usual pace by 2009.
Are you sure you're not thinking of Greenspan? Everybody knew there was a housing bubble at the time. Hell, even I knew that when I was helping my ex sell her townhouse.The recession Bernanke didn't see/believe officially started in December 2007. And he made the statement just as/before the housing market tanked. Even a year later he was spouting the same garbage. Article published February 14, 2008.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/02/14/news/economy/bernanke_paulson/
If your own analysis says one thing, okay, but the last thing I'd do is listen to the "experts" and the mainstream media.
Edit: Sweet Jésus... these were the economic numbers being reported in April 2008.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/04/30/economy-recession-fed-biz-wash-cx_jz_0430econ.html
Are you sure you're not thinking of Greenspan? Everybody knew there was a housing bubble at the time. Hell, even I knew that when I was helping my ex sell her townhouse.
Have you seen The Big Short yet? Definitely worth watching. A few people saw what was coming but just an infinitesimal fraction of Wall Street.
Exports in dollar-denominated terms tanked 4.1 percent on-year, more than double April's 1.8 percent fall and slightly worse than estimates for a 3.6 percent decline, Reuters said on Wednesday.
Imports meanwhile edged down 0.4 percent on-year, narrower than April's 10.9 percent tumble and the 6 percent slide anticipated.
IDK. As I said, Bernanke wasn't alone in not seeing what was happening. Maybe by 2007 he should have but I don't really remember. I think the ex sold in 2006 and I remember thinking 'this shit can't go on forever.'
But I have a lot of respect for both Bernanke and Yellen. Both have shown that they have the understanding and intelligence to lead the fed in the right direction. Now in Bernanke's case, he was a student of the great depression and I think did his doctoral thesis on it. So he was uniquely qualified to prevent what the fed in 1929 should have prevented. He was also circumspect enough to realize that he might have to drain liquidity very quickly and set up a novel approach to doing that by using reverse repos and the money market funds.
Yellen I respect because she realized that there were a lot of discouraged workers out there that needed to be brought back into the work force and was willing to risk inflation by continuing Bernanke's policies longer than most people were advising.
I understand that even the chair of the fed can be wrong, but if you're going to contradict their view, you need to have a solid argument against it. They have expertise that we don't and probably information we don't as well. I'm not saying to trust them blindly. We saw how well that turned out with Greenspan. But you have to give them due deference. For example everyone thought that QE was going create the Weimar Republic part deux here in the US. But everybody was wrong.
So far, I don't think so. But since the crisis, they seem to be getting better.I've always wondered whether the Fed even "tell it as it is"? So much of the economy/markets is based on sentiment and confidence. It would seem to me that the last thing that the Fed can do if they predict an impending collapse is to actually make the prediction. Does the Fed actually have a track record of calling out predicted downturns?