***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
I can see it moving to near positive today. But yes I'm also waiting for early Feb prices. BTW my online brokerages are frozen I can't trade now.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I sold close to 50% before the vote knowing the risk was 50/50, so I will be buying something on the cheap. Be sure to put your "stink bids" in. Stop loss selling should make a nice flash crash today.

Remember it takes two years before the separation. Nothing has really changed that much in the near term, nor the far term, only the medium term is different.

Worry is that Italy and the Netherlands may be up next, maybe even France. They'll be missing UK's money next time Greece needs a bailout to pay the interest on their bailout loans. Or maybe Spain, Italy, or Ireland will need bank bailouts. Deutsche Bank in Germany may also need help -- down 14% today. Bailouts for everyone...

I just saw a "panel" on CNN talking about the Brexit. Time magazine commentator summarized the entire situation up pretty succinctly. She said how there were two tiers in the EU: the strong core with Germany... and that was about it.

That is, essentially, the EU: strong Germany and fuck the rest.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Anyone buy British banks?
Most are -20% today.

Nope. I slept like a baby last night and then sat on my hands today. I got lucky and am positioned correctly. I don't need to play hero today. S&P is less than 4% from its all time high. I don't need added stress over the weekend. I'll let people digest the news over the weekend. Lot of people were caught off guard by this decision and leaning the wrong way. There's lot to unwind and markets don't bottom on Friday after a single drop.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
DOW closed -610 points, -3.4%.

S&P 500 closed -76 points, -3.6%.

Yummy. If the S&P 500 goes to 1800 again, it could be game over. Seven year bull market has to come to an end at some point. Numerous indicators are suggesting a recession in the U.S., this may be the tipping point.
 

Artdeco

Platinum Member
Mar 14, 2015
2,682
1
0
DOW closed -610 points, -3.4%.

S&P 500 closed -76 points, -3.6%.

Yummy. If the S&P 500 goes to 1800 again, it could be game over. Seven year bull market has to come to an end at some point. Numerous indicators are suggesting a recession in the U.S., this may be the tipping point.

We'll see, I'm off ~3% today, but I think we'll bounce back, nothing will actually happen for some time.

And on a brighter note, my covered calls were out of the money, $9K worth of premiums
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,583
2,946
136
I think everything except maybe financials and commodities will be back to the trend line within a week or two. UK just isn't that important a market for us and brexit means the fed isn't going to raise rates until well into next year.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
DOW closed -610 points, -3.4%.

S&P 500 closed -76 points, -3.6%.

Yummy. If the S&P 500 goes to 1800 again, it could be game over. Seven year bull market has to come to an end at some point. Numerous indicators are suggesting a recession in the U.S., this may be the tipping point.

I think you're too excited. Today is just one day and the world's not going to end. The central bankers have all pledged support and won't give up that easily.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I think everything except maybe financials and commodities will be back to the trend line within a week or two. UK just isn't that important a market for us and brexit means the fed isn't going to raise rates until well into next year.

Unfortunately, I agree and think markets will be back up within a few weeks. Why? I don't know.

China is still in the shitter, oil still oversupplied, global economy slow, but hey, central banks are handing out free money, BBQ! The Bank of England dude promised like $250 billion (forget if Pounds or dollars) in case just this morning.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,583
2,946
136
Unfortunately, I agree and think markets will be back up within a few weeks. Why? I don't know.

China is still in the shitter, oil still oversupplied, global economy slow, but hey, central banks are handing out free money, BBQ! The Bank of England dude promised like $250 billion (forget if Pounds or dollars) in case just this morning.
Everything is of course speculation at this point but some points worth remembering are

1. Nothing is going to happen for years. It will probably take at least 2 years before a full exit can be accomplished. There are apparently all sorts of negotiations that have to happen.

2. Odds are that both Scotland and Northern Ireland will have referenda/referendums that will favor rejoining the EU since both overwhelming voted to remain. I don't know how that will work precisely - if they will have to vote to leave the UK - but that's a definite possibility.

3. Europe has been in an economic slump for several years from what I can understand and they don't account for much of a contribution to our GDP. So it's hard to imagine that a decrease in trade between the UK and EU is going to have a profound effect on US stocks.

There are probably some other points as well but that's all I can think of at the moment.

If the US goes into a technical recession it will be because the rest of the world is sucking ass. The US was and I think still is a net exporter of oil. We're also still the safest of safe havens. So we're going to have net capital inflows almost regardless of what happens elsewhere.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,583
2,946
136
I don't think so but it wouldn't be the first time I've been surprised.

My impression is that most of the money the fed will issue to support the markets will go to other central banks.

The Fed on Friday sought to reassure markets that it would provide liquidity as needed using swap lines in place with other central banks, including the Bank of England as the pound touched a 1985 low against the dollar, world stocks lost more than $2 trillion of their value, and investors rushed for the safety of U.S. Treasuries, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to a four-year low.

Traders of U.S.-interest rate futures even began to price in a small chance of a Fed rate cut, and now see little chance of any rate hike until the end of next year.

"One can forget about rate hikes in the near term," said Thomas Costerg, New York-based economist at Standard Chartered Bank. "What I'm worried about is that the Brexit vote could be the straw that breaks the back of the U.S. growth picture."
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-fed-analysis-idUSKCN0ZA0R6
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
3. Europe has been in an economic slump for several years from what I can understand and they don't account for much of a contribution to our GDP. So it's hard to imagine that a decrease in trade between the UK and EU is going to have a profound effect on US stocks.

I think they hit deflation a while back, which lead to negative rates.

The biggest risk, I think, to the U.S. and Canada is probably the background, banking stuff. European bank stocks are seriously taking a huge beating from the Brexit, but they were already troubled with stuff like bad loans. Word is that their derivatives are insane.

Found this article from earlier in the year. Shows the youth unemployment in Spain, Italy, France, and Germany. What. The. Hell.

http://www.economist.com/news/europ...ance-tackle-rising-jobless-rates-mode-demploi

P.S. Goodbye rate hike for the next year unless Fed wants to give the finger to the UK.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,583
2,946
136
what Brokerage allows you to trade all hours, weekends, europe and asia? Thanks
I think IB (Interactive Brokers) does some of that.

I know TD Ameritrade doesn't. I asked them why and they said that overseas markets don't have the liquidity US traders would want.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
This market is too dangerous at the moment for longs or shorts....going back on holiday.

In the meantime, silver.


 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
Yes, there are two paths you can go by - but in the long run -
there's still time to change the road you're on.

Dear lady can you hear the wind blow; and did you know?
Your stairway lies on the whispering wind.

...and she's buying a stairway to...Heaven.

()
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
The score card after Friday's blood bath...

In Europe, the damage is much, much worse: Germany’s Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank are down by between 11.5% and 12% (having recouped around half of their losses at the European opening). In France, Societe Generale is the biggest loser, down 19%, followed by BNP Paribas -16% and Credit Agricole -12.1%. In Italy, seven of the bottom eight losers are banks, down by between 17% and 20.9%.

Italy's banks and Deutsche are the ones to watch.

There be a video:
http://fortune.com/2016/06/24/brexit-bank-stocks/
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Shanghai and NIKKEI are up right now. I'd wait until the last hour before closing though -- always the funnest hour.
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,234
701
126
"Don't worry about that Brexit thing, its non-binding."

Tell that to the stock market!

Uncertainty. Dropping like a rock right now (down 315 and falling fast). Last hour will be telling (usually is - sometimes in a surprising way). Of course, the perma-bears (Jim Rogers, etc) are out in force over the last few days pushing ever ounce of negativity that they can come up with.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
"Don't worry about that Brexit thing, its non-binding."

Tell that to the stock market!

They didn't seem that worried when it came to oil when the so called Doha Agreement didn't happen. Iran and other Middle Eastern countries producing at record levels? No problem.

Non-binding referendum with a bare majority that was mainly a "fuck you" at the establishment and all levels of government... OMFGBBQ. For all we know, they'll just renegotiate some things and not even leave. But the media... OMFGBBQ, end of the wurld, yo.

European markets started almost at par today but "tanked" through the day. Deutsche Bank stock went down another 6% though.
 
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