***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Gold is continuing its climb and is getting close to $1400 USD. Gold just broke the all time high in Australian dollars today. It's currently $1,844 AUD for 1 troy ounce of gold. That's higher than in 2011. Gold is very close to all time high in Canadian dollar too. It's currently $1782 CAD. I think the all time high was barely over $1800 CAD back in 2011.

I think the Chinese are buying.

I am still kicking myself for not buying gold when the retail price was $1100. I decided to buy silver Eagles instead because they were cheaper. If silver reaches $25, I might consider selling. Although I did the same thing back in 2010, just before the 2011 high of $50 an ounce! :'(


Do you have a target sale price?

 

[ponyo]

I am still kicking myself for not buying gold when the retail price was $1100. I decided to buy silver Eagles instead because they were cheaper. If silver reaches $25, I might consider selling. Although I did the same thing back in 2010, just before the 2011 high of $50 an ounce! :'(


Do you have a target sale price?

I will start selling silver at $12 and then panic sell everything at $5. For gold, I will panic sell at $300.

 

[Imp]

Throw one more into the fire...

Canada Life has suspended trading of its U.K. property funds...

The insurance company — now part of Power Financial Corp. as a subsidiary of Great-West Lifeco — says its U.K. property funds are valued at 500 million pounds.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-life-uk-property-1.3667267

And in even better news, Fed minutes came out today for Junes meeting? Something something probably no rate hikes for a long time. But we all figured that out months ago. Good time for the S&P 500 to make it back to 2100. If they suck again, it'll make 2200.

Edit: And in the best news, Deutsche Bank AG stock is down 5.56% -- now ~11.50 euros, it was 15 euros before Brexit, started the year around 21 euros. Something $50 trillion in derivatives. No worries.

 

[Miramonti]

I will start selling silver at $12 and then panic sell everything at $5. For gold, I will panic sell at $300.

 

[Charmonium]

Edit: And in the best news, Deutsche Bank AG stock is down 5.56% -- now ~11.50 euros, it was 15 euros before Brexit, started the year around 21 euros. Something $50 trillion in derivatives. No worries.

I don't think the nominal amount of derivatives is an issue since the central banks will just print however much is needed to fill the gap and give it to the banks. They'll in turn lend it to whoever.

The problem with Lehman was that no one trusted their counterparties to pay them back so the entire financial system seized. Opening the discount window turned that around pretty quickly, but the damage to confidence was already done.

 

[adamantine.me]

Panic sell gold/silver? I can see the headlines now: "Pure gold meteorite collides with Earth: increases supply of gold by 200%"

 

[holden j caufield]

Geez we talked about NUGT a few months ago. I bought it in the 80s in April ish. Everyday it's up another $10 everyday this week. $160 ish now.

 

[Miramonti]

Geez we talked about NUGT a few months ago. I bought it in the 80s in April ish. Everyday it's up another $10 everyday this week. $160 ish now.

I don't even know what the heck this tracks and how it tracks it lol.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Geez we talked about NUGT a few months ago. I bought it in the 80s in April ish. Everyday it's up another $10 everyday this week. $160 ish now.

In late May I was on vacation and decided to short NUGT intraday for a quick buck. It fell down to $73. All I had to do was go long and I would have more than doubled the money in 35 days.

HOWEVER the SEC is about the force all ETFs that use 2x and 3x leverage to cease doing so. Therefore, it would be wise to avoid 2x and 3x ETFs despite the gains as you could wake up one day and trading would be halted indefinitely.

 

[Imp]

HOWEVER the SEC is about the force all ETFs that use 2x and 3x leverage to cease doing so. Therefore, it would be wise to avoid 2x and 3x ETFs despite the gains as you could wake up one day and trading would be halted indefinitely.

Dafuq? Why?


And S&P put Australia's credit rating on "downgrade watch."

http://www.afr.com/news/economy/sp-officially-puts-aaa-on-downgrade-watch-20160707-gq0f70

Good luck on that housing bubble and banks that are very heavily exposed to housing. South America is going Brazil/Venezuela, EU has gone Brexit, Africa has gone Africa, China has gone bad loan land, Japan no growth... But hey, I think India's economy is still doing okay?

 

[Miramonti]

In late May I was on vacation and decided to short NUGT intraday for a quick buck. It fell down to $73. All I had to do was go long and I would have more than doubled the money in 35 days.

HOWEVER the SEC is about the force all ETFs that use 2x and 3x leverage to cease doing so. Therefore, it would be wise to avoid 2x and 3x ETFs despite the gains as you could wake up one day and trading would be halted indefinitely.

I like the volatility of these from a trading standpoint but don't have a problem with the regulation. The price movement of many has been so extreme over time, often absolute disasters to hold positions in over a long period of time, that they leave huge losses in their wake for many people whom aren't expecting to lose such a large portion of their investment.

They are both exciting and terrifying, but worst of all, confusing, and that much leverage in the hands of individual investors is too disproportionately a disaster waiting to happen.

That's my overview thought about them. Granted, wise people will use them wisely, but on the other hand, wise people won't miss them because they are wise enough find other ways to invest their money wisely.

 

[Miramonti]

Speaking of leveraged etfs, oil is down >$2 today, and as a result, UWTI has gone from ~$31.50 to <$26 in about 3 hours.

 

[turtile]

But these stocks are ETNs not ETFs.

 

[Imp]

Lulz... U.S. futures were showing positive when I went to bed. Next time I check, oil's down $2, everything else with it.

And Canada now has an updated price tag for the Fort McMurray fire, well the insurance costs at least.

About $3.58 billion in damage is expected due to the fire in May that swept through Fort McMurray, Alta.,...

Financial analysts estimate that as much as 30 million barrels of oilsands production worth $1.6 billion was lost as producers were forced to shut down or curtail operations...

https://www.thestar.com/business/20...mated-to-be-costliest-disaster-in-canada.html

That's like a quarter's worth of profits from a few of the big banks.

On the other hand, people probably don't have insurance for the value of their land, which has more than likely tanked now -- everything's toxic near the burned down lots, maybe even further away.

 

[brianmanahan]

vanguard: expect low yield to be secular

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/gmm-monetary-policy-072016

 

[Charmonium]

I think it bizarre but comical that we have so much more money in excess reserves that we have had at any point in history and yet we still seem to be in a deflationary spiral. It shows us that economics is 9/10ths behavioral and 1/10th math and data.

 

[Imp]

I think it bizarre but comical that we have so much more money in excess reserves that we have had at any point in history and yet we still seem to be in a deflationary spiral. It shows us that economics is 9/10ths behavioral and 1/10th math and data.

I'm getting more and more convinced that economics is the biggest crock of shit known to man...

I especially love it when people try to shut down conversations by saying the other party doesn't know "economics." Which one? Macro, micro, Keynesian, Austrian???

 

[Charmonium]

I'm getting more and more convinced that economics is the biggest crock of shit known to man...

I especially love it when people try to shut down conversations by saying the other party doesn't know "economics." Which one? Macro, micro, Keynesian, Austrian???

Oooo, never cite Austrian if you want to be taken seriously. And generally, if someone is talking about economics w/o any qualification, you're justified in assuming that they mean macro.

 

[Imp]

Oooo, never cite Austrian if you want to be taken seriously. And generally, if someone is talking about economics w/o any qualification, you're justified in assuming that they mean macro.

Ya, I never heard about Austrian until I looked at gold/silver peddling type sites.

In the shutting down conversations case, most people usually follow how the other person doesn't know economics with a long-winded essay about supply and demand.

P.S. My economics knowledge is limited.

 

[Miramonti]

I think some people's assumption the market is all about economics is missing what it's really about to most people, which is to make money.

 

[Imp]

The provincial government in British Columbia (Vancouver land) decided to collect some real-estate data on foreign buyers.

Preliminary data collected by the B.C. government on foreign investment in the province's sizzling real estate market shows that in Metro Vancouver five per cent of all real estate purchases were made by foreign buyers, almost all of them Chinese nationals.

But certain areas showed a much higher level of foreign involvement in the market.

De Jong cautioned that the data is very preliminary, containing only the information for 20 days.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-real-estate-foreign-home-ownership-data-1.3668460

Relatively small sample period but prices have been on fire, gone parabolic over the past few months, so I doubt it's that far off. People will say it doesn't count all foreign money (e.g. getting a non-foreign entity to buy for you).

Or maybe it's time to admit people fell into the same trap the U.S. of A., Ireland, Portugal, and Spain did a decade ago and everyone's fucked.

 

[holden j caufield]

My real estate agent said investors aren't really buying properties anymore as there is no real money to made at these prices. I've been thinking it's near the top for at least a year now. Can't continue imo, no way a regular family can afford these prices. People must be live multiple families to a house or there is some other scam going on?

I know last time it was bad loans, what's it this time? Just foreign people parking money in RE?

 

[Imp]

My real estate agent said investors aren't really buying properties anymore as there is no real money to made at these prices. I've been thinking it's near the top for at least a year now. Can't continue imo, no way a regular family can afford these prices. People must be live multiple families to a house or there is some other scam going on?

I know last time it was bad loans, what's it this time? Just foreign people parking money in RE?

In Vancouver, even doctors and lawyers can't really afford homes. In Canada, it's most likely due to low interest rates, lax lending standards, government insured mortgages for low down payments, very long amortizations, fear of missing out (buy now or never), greed, home ownership culture, poor personal finance and risk assessment skills, mass speculation, foreign investment and money laundering, borrowing against inflated properties, bank of mom & dad, move up/down buyers who made lots, taking on dangerous amounts of debt, families buying together, etc.

Multiple families to a home... People seem to forget that if home/rent prices become insanely expensive, people will huddle together to split costs -- "real," non speculative, demand then goes down.

 

[dullard]

A strong jobs report combined with a fed that is too scared to act. That means it'll be another great day for US stocks. The S&P opened up almost 1% higher and if it goes just a bit more will be at the all time S&P high.

I still feel the S&P should be at an all time high (GDP is at an all time high, unemployment is low, etc). It is just that the high should be in the upper 1900s not in the 2100s. I'm not sure how much higher I want to ride this wave up.

 

[Artdeco]

I have ~$150K worth of covered calls on Stamps.com within .75 of the strike price, really hoping I keep the underlying stock and it closes below $90/share.