***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,307
2,099
126
How much lower can oil go? Isn't it a good idea to buy low and sell high? The Saudis want to bankrupt the shale oil business, but when the competitions are dead, the Saudis are going to reduce supply. Even counting in the Iranian oil, I think the price of oil will go higher in the future, maybe $50-60/barrel.

$119 to $105 .... How much lower can oil go? 2014

$105 to $89 .... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$89 to $71 ... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$71 to $59 ... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$59 to $39 .... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$39 to $29.80 today.... How much lower can oil go? 2016
 
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11thHour

Senior member
Feb 20, 2004
796
1
0
I think I found an ETF to go long crude: OLEM

(Feb crude comparison price isn't displaying in the link, so just add CLG16.NYM in the Comparison pref along the top of the chart to see relationship.)

/edit: after further research, this article says ETF's should have $50m in assets managed to be sustainable products worth managing, or else they risk closing. This has $7m.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
...Hahahahah.....HAHAHHHAAHa!

The CAD-USD was looking bad overnight. Wake up and it's gone from $1 CAD = $0.7035 USD to $1 CAD = $0.6974 USD.

Analysts now calling for $0.59 -- "analysts" were saying that $0.78 was the bottom, others were saying $0.73. I'd like to be paid six figures to be an "analyst" and never really have to be right.

If the housing market goes, sub-$0.50 is probably possible.
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,774
919
126
Market taking another dip today. Not sure when to start buying back in. Think I'll hold of to see if we stabilize tomorrow.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Market taking another dip today. Not sure when to start buying back in. Think I'll hold of to see if we stabilize tomorrow.

I'm tempted to buy in because the S&P500 will probably bounce. But longer term, I don't think it looks so good. The world appears to be in/entering a recession.
 

dr150

Diamond Member
Sep 18, 2003
6,571
24
81
I'm tempted to buy in because the S&P500 will probably bounce. But longer term, I don't think it looks so good. The world appears to be in/entering a recession.

No recession. Just a lot of BS and noise and Wall St. ringing the cash register on growth industries.

Things will stabilize and when it does, my IRA money will be there to take advantage.

In 10 years, all this drama shit will be meaningless.

I'm with Prof. Siegel in believing a 10% 2016 year end is likely possible....
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
I'm tempted to buy in because the S&P500 will probably bounce. But longer term, I don't think it looks so good. The world appears to be in/entering a recession.
A mini-recession isn't out of the question. Most countries in Europe tried to raise rates too quickly after 2008 and it caused a lot of them to have double dip recessions. that's why the fed took so long to finally bite the bullet.

I don't think the fed rate increase will have anything to do with whatever might happen though. People have been expecting a down turn for years now and the situation with China I think just pushed a lot of them over the edge. So personally, I think this is a classic over reaction.

The US isn't that dependent upon international trade that a significant reduction in economic activity in either China or Europe is going to make a huge difference. While we have more int'l exposure than ever before, especially in the case of multinational companies, we're still largely self contained. And by every measure you can think of, the US Economy still looks great.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
The US isn't that dependent upon international trade that a significant reduction in economic activity in either China or Europe is going to make a huge difference. While we have more int'l exposure than ever before, especially in the case of multinational companies, we're still largely self contained. And by every measure you can think of, the US Economy still looks great.

Compared to everyone else, the U.S. is doing great. I'm still leaning towards stagnation, maybe another 2015 (essentially no change in market, but reasonable overall economy), not a 2008. It's a well diversified economy but the resource sector is being hit. International sales may not be as great for American companies. We'll see, we're only 2 weeks into 2016.

Yes, that feeling is returning. Don't know that I can stomach riding it down again....sigh

Only 1% of my portfolio is invested in any "real" stock. That thing is down 25% from a year ago. Piece of shit... And it's a preferred stock ETF. Still pissing out a 5% dividend though.

I'm up 3% so far this year, overall, in terms of Canadian Pesos thanks to the exchange rate. Buying power... see you later.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
Compared to everyone else, the U.S. is doing great. I'm still leaning towards stagnation, maybe another 2015 (essentially no change in market, but reasonable overall economy), not a 2008. It's a well diversified economy but the resource sector is being hit. International sales may not be as great for American companies. We'll see, we're only 2 weeks into 2016.
It's weird. When oil prices started dropping, most people thought that it would really kick the economy up a notch. But there were a few who thought that the reduction in capex would have a net negative effect. They turned out to be right but mainly because consumers decided to bank their gas savings rather than spend.

Normally, it's the housing market that leads us out of recession but that's not what happened this time. But housing starts have been inching up since 2010. And considering that we're only about half to the pre-recession high water mark, there is enough pent up demand and inventory reduction that I think it could start to play it's normal role in stimulating economic growth.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HOUST
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,730
136
It's time to not look at your 401K and retire investments, yet again. Wooohoooo!

unless you have taxable investments!

i just cut 3$k off next year's taxes today by selling some VTSAX + VTIAX and replacing it with VLCAX + VFWAX
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
No one can be 100% right all the time. But a market correction has long been overdue. I sold Sune from $4.50 to $3.95 at a loss.

Care to divulge your trades or predictions?

I don't have anyone to impress. Trading is hard as it is without the spotlight. I'm just here for the entertainment.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,582
2,946
136
For people interested in oil, i saw Harold Hamm (ceo of Continental Resources) today and he is predicting oil doubles by the end of the year.

His logic is interesting. He doesn't think that the Saudis can continue their overproduction indefiintely. According to him, this is reason they are considering selling shares of Saudi Aramco - because they need the money to support their population.

There's also pressure from other OPEC producers are getting killed at these prices.

However he doesn't say anything about Iran. It seems to me that if sanctions are lifted next week as planned, they're going to add a lot of production.

If you're interested, he's an article based on his CNBC interview yesterday.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
30,160
3,302
126
dec 31 of last year moved 10% from stocks to bonds, mainly because I was overweight in equities and needed to rebalance.

20% swing into safety

this 3day -1000 point drop in the dow makes me feel better about my decision

:whistling: or whatever that emoticon FelixtheCat uses.
 
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