***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

That darn housing bubble in Canada acting up again. Financial regulator is making smaller banks test against a 30% plus crash in home values.

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions also said Tuesday that the banks must all test for a 30 per cent downturn in valuations for all other areas of the country.

The OSFI said the test doesn't apply to the Big Six banks and HSBC.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-stress-test-1.3695691

I'm sure they're just doing it for fun. They're going to levy some kind of 15% tax on foreign investors in British Columbia (Vancouver's province) starting early August. A bubble built on speculation based on perception having the perceived main driver of prices hit hard... Yay.

 

[UncleWai]

That darn housing bubble in Canada acting up again. Financial regulator is making smaller banks test against a 30% plus crash in home values.



http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/osfi-stress-test-1.3695691

I'm sure they're just doing it for fun. They're going to levy some kind of 15% tax on foreign investors in British Columbia (Vancouver's province) starting early August. A bubble built on speculation based on perception having the perceived main driver of prices hit hard... Yay.

It didn't work in Hong Kong. An insignificant (15% is small against the Chinese) foreign investors tax will only slow down the velocity of the homes transacted. The high housing price would stay stagnant and the houses would only be sold at a premium price.

What the governments need to do is to punish the homeowners who leave their homes vacant and the ones who own multiple homes for rental. I say a home vacant tax with heavier tax for repeaters and a progress property tax depending on the number of homes the person owns. The purpose is to push more homes for sale into the market, and the market price would adjust itself. It is very myopic for governments to believe GDP built on selling homes to foreign investors will be sustainable.

 

[Imp]

It is very myopic for governments to believe GDP built on selling homes to foreign investors will be sustainable.

More like to each other in the same city/province/country.

 

[Imp]

So... This can't be good?

Deutsche Bank, the German bank which is an important part of the global financial system...

Its second-quarter net income was down 98 percent from the same period in the previous year, to 20 million euros ($22 million), as it exited parts of its business while revenues were down 20 percent to 7.4 billion euro.

There be video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/27/deut...os-down-20-versus-second-quarter-of-2015.html

Edit: Surprise, the Fed didn't hike rates.

 

[jpiniero]

Yeah but the chatter is that they are at least thinking about raising it in September. I'm sure a big selloff will happen if Wall Street actually thinks this could occur.

 

[Imp]

This looks nice and healthy. Coming from Japan...

In an eagerly-awaited decision, the central bank said it would ramp up ETF purchases so that their amount outstanding will rise at an annual pace of 6 trillion yen ($56.7 billion), from 3.3 trillion yen previously.

Possible video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/28/bank...ases-keeps-interest-rates-steady-reuters.html

Not sure if that means they'll buy $56.7 billion in perpetuity until they don't like QE3. If they do, that means they could own most of SPY at its current market cap in about 3 years -- they're probably sticking to home country ETFs.

How is this sane?

 

[Red Squirrel]

I'm fairly new to stock trading and recently got an account at Virtual Brokers so I can get into it a bit. I bought a few stocks on a whim just to see what happens long term, obviously there's more to it than just buying low and selling high, as there are technicals, indicators etc...

What's a good resource for learning all these concepts, and what is a good resource for actually finding stocks? I'm probably going to be sticking mostly to cheap stocks worth no more than a few dollars, as you have to buy 100 at a time.

 

[JTsyo]

I'm fairly new to stock trading and recently got an account at Virtual Brokers so I can get into it a bit. I bought a few stocks on a whim just to see what happens long term, obviously there's more to it than just buying low and selling high, as there are technicals, indicators etc...

What's a good resource for learning all these concepts, and what is a good resource for actually finding stocks? I'm probably going to be sticking mostly to cheap stocks worth no more than a few dollars, as you have to buy 100 at a time.

Try these. You can explore the sites for more advanced stuff once you get a handle on the basics.

The Bogleheads
Investopedia

 

[Miramonti]

I'm fairly new to stock trading and recently got an account at Virtual Brokers so I can get into it a bit. I bought a few stocks on a whim just to see what happens long term, obviously there's more to it than just buying low and selling high, as there are technicals, indicators etc...

What's a good resource for learning all these concepts, and what is a good resource for actually finding stocks? I'm probably going to be sticking mostly to cheap stocks worth no more than a few dollars, as you have to buy 100 at a time.

If you can come to understand why people can be wrong all the time but not right all the time, you'll be ahead of the game.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I'm fairly new to stock trading and recently got an account at Virtual Brokers so I can get into it a bit. I bought a few stocks on a whim just to see what happens long term, obviously there's more to it than just buying low and selling high, as there are technicals, indicators etc...

What's a good resource for learning all these concepts, and what is a good resource for actually finding stocks? I'm probably going to be sticking mostly to cheap stocks worth no more than a few dollars, as you have to buy 100 at a time.

Stock trading is a full time job. Unless you have the time and resources to do thorough research on your picks, you're in for a bad time. If you want a safe investment go for a safe investment, but if you are just throwing darts you're going to lose.

Of course, my definition of a safe investment is maxing out your 401k and IRA in diversified Index funds before worrying about taxable stocks.

 

[brianmanahan]

i'm going to switch my 70/30 US/international split to 60/40. US is too overpriced.

 

[Imp]

What's a good resource for learning all these concepts, and what is a good resource for actually finding stocks? I'm probably going to be sticking mostly to cheap stocks worth no more than a few dollars, as you have to buy 100 at a time.

This is complete over-generalizing but "cheap stocks" that are priced in the single dollar digits are generally shit stocks -- this completely ignores market cap and dozens of other metrics, there are obvious exceptions, but there's some truth to it. Citigroup did a reverse split to avoid being a single digit-er. Here's the Dow 30. They are considered some of the strongest blue-chip companies out there. Pay attention to their prices.

http://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/?iid=H_MKT_QL


In other news, GDP numbers sucked in the U.S. There be video, yo:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/29/gdp-us-economic-growth-is-close-to-zero.html

Friday's gross domestic product reading fell below even the dimming hopes on Wall Street. The 1.2 percent growth ratein the second quarter combined with a downward revision to the first three months of the year to produce an average growth rate of just 1 percent.

And we must not forget Canada...

Canada's economy contracted by 0.6 per cent in May, as wildfires in Alberta and a slowdown in manufacturing elsewhere in the country combined to create the worst monthly GDP figure since March 2009.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/gdp-may-fire-economy-1.3693968

 

[dullard]

This is complete over-generalizing but "cheap stocks" that are priced in the single dollar digits are generally shit stocks -- this completely ignores market cap and dozens of other metrics, there are obvious exceptions, but there's some truth to it. Citigroup did a reverse split to avoid being a single digit-er. Here's the Dow 30. They are considered some of the strongest blue-chip companies out there. Pay attention to their prices.

In over-generalized terms, I agree.

In other news, GDP numbers sucked in the U.S.

Define good GDP numbers.

To me, as long as per capita real GDP grew, it means that on average each person is doing better. The population growth rate is about 0.7%, so that means that real GDP needs to grow by at least 0.7%. According to that metric, the US is better off this quarter than last quarter. That isn't great growth, but it isn't sucky either. It is just a bit better than it needs to be.

 

[Imp]

Define good GDP numbers.

To me, as long as per capita real GDP grew, it means that on average each person is doing better. The population growth rate is about 0.7%, so that means that real GDP needs to grow by at least 0.7%. According to that metric, the US is better off this quarter than last quarter. That isn't great growth, but it isn't sucky either. It is just a bit better than it needs to be.

Something higher that justifies the current talk about the great economy coming from politicians, "analysts," and the Fed. Also something that justifies the current stock indexes -- okay, they're only around the 2000 and 2007 levels inflation adjusted, but still very high considering that both times they hit these levels in the past 2 decades, they crashed.

 

[Imp]

Is this "helicopter money?"

The stress on fiscal steps is raising doubts about Japan's ability to fix its already massive debt. Dow Jones reported Tuesday that the package will also include handouts of $150 each to 22 million low-income people.

Might be video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/02/japa...s-to-22-million-low-income-people-report.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

Silver futures $20.75

 

[ponyo]

Silver futures $20.75

Silver is up 48% for the year. Gold is up almost 28%. But platinum has come on strong the past month and is now up 30% for the year. To me, platinum is the surprise of the group. I own ton of silver and decent amount of gold but not much platinum.

I still think silver goes to $24-25. But I'm not adding any. I'm still adding gold here and there even though I hate the current high price. I'm a sucker for gold under spot and have hard time turning down American gold eagle below spot.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Silver is up 48% for the year. Gold is up almost 28%. But platinum has come on strong the past month and is now up 30% for the year. To me, platinum is the surprise of the group. I own ton of silver and decent amount of gold but not much platinum.

I still think silver goes to $24-25. But I'm not adding any. I'm still adding gold here and there even though I hate the current high price. I'm a sucker for gold under spot and have hard time turning down American gold eagle below spot.

Ok, tell me again how to buy below spot. And does this apply to silver as well? :sneaky:


And no, I don't mean scrap.

 

[ponyo]

Ok, tell me again how to buy below spot. And does this apply to silver as well? :sneaky:


And no, I don't mean scrap.

1) Sign up for eBay Bucks.
2) Wait for 10% eBay Bucks promotion email. It's currently 10% for today and tomorrow but you have to receive the email as it's targeted promotion. eBay runs 8% and 10% promotion around every two weeks or so.
3) Purchase gold coin that has eBay Bucks like this 1 oz AGE. That has $100 eBay Bucks if you received the promotion. $1,467.95 minus $100 is $1,367.95. That's $1.95 over spot. But you can get another 3% cashback if you use 2% cashback credit card and 1% shopping portal rebate. So that's another $44 off. Final price is $1,323.95 or about $42 below spot.

The discount used to be bigger last year when Apmex eBay often ran various 1 oz world gold coin specials for like $30 over spot. Added with the eBay Bucks 4x-5x promos, it was easy to get more than $100 below gold spot after cc and shopping portal rebates. I bought 1 oz gold American Buffalo for around $1030 last year and bunch of other gold coins like the Maple, Britannia, Philharmonic, etc all for around the same price using eBay Bucks and cashback.

There are similar spot silver deals using eBay Bucks but fewer. But I rather use eBay Bucks for gold. You're limited to $500 eBay Bucks for the quarter so $2,000 a year. But people often have multiple eBay accounts to get around this restriction. Realistically you're going to have to spend over $25,000 a year to max out the eBay Bucks on a single account. I have multiple accounts to get around the eBay Bucks limit.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've been a member of the Ebay Bucks program since inception. I do not recall ever getting promotional emails. I tried signing up for them today and found you cannot. The only other acceptable alternative I found was to set my email preferences to allow Ebay spam, which hopefully might contain said offers.

My account dates back to 2000, and at some point I must have opted out of Ebay spam.

My Capital One rewards card only pays 1.5% cash back. It is the only credit card I have and have kept the credit line low to prevent going deep into debt. Unfortunately they keep raising the credit line without permission and have just jacked it up to $5250. The original line was only $500 back in 2009.

Im not aware of any shopping portals at this time. But it would be nice to make some extra money if I could get past these hurdles.

 

[TallBill]

Sounds like a lot of effort. I'll stuck with the s&p 500.

 

[ponyo]

Sounds like a lot of effort. I'll stuck with the s&p 500.

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink.

 

[Imp]

So... Bank of England cut their central bank rate, as expected, from 0.50% to 0.25%. Plus they may be doing more QE.

Bank of Australia also cut their rate a few days ago from 1.75% to 1.50%.

Bank of Canada currently sits at 0.50% but is expected to cut later in the year due to the non-existent economy where 20% of GDP, I believe, is attributed to real-estate and related financing -- forget if construction's in there too, might be.

What can I say... everything sounds great and the S&P 500 should reach new highs with such great news.

 

[Charmonium]

I think most people are looking for a correction. I was reading something about vix futures being higher than vix "spot." That apparently is negative harbinger.

However consumer confidence is way up. That means spending should follow and give the overall economy and GDP a nice boost. Of course the devil is in the details and you never know what countervailing factors there might be. For example oil and the S&P are supposed to be pretty closely correlated and oil hasn't been doing well.

 

[Imp]

U.S. job numbers: +255k in July.
DXY: barely moved, only low 96, down from 97 a week or so ago.
S&P500: new high of 2180

So... essentially no one expects a rate hike then.

There be video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/05/us-markets.html


But in even better news, Canada lost 31,200 jobs in July! That's incredible news because I just saw two reports in recent weeks about how home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are up something like over 15% year over year! But it's not a bubble... Something something China.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-canada-july-1.3708611