***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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bookem dano

Senior member
Oct 19, 1999
243
8
81
My mom bought shares of NVDA back in the early 2000s. It just hit over $50. I think it's time to sell but I'd hate to steer her wrong. Thoughts? I don't know the full value but she's less than 10 years from retirement and I feel like she should move the money elsewhere.
I'm in NVDA at $7/share from 2008, but I don't have a huge amount of shares(200). I bought it awhile ago for a long, long term hold. Being 10 years from retirement is in an area that most people would recommend a migration to less volatility. It's all a matter of what her positions are and overall risk. Both of those need to match what she wants as risk.

I've thought about selling to get my initial investment covered, or potentially get that covered and then x% increase and let the remaining ride. If I did sell it, if I didn't have an idea of what else to 'bet' on, I'd probably divert it to a current holding or add another stable option. Regardless, investing is about what you anticipate the return to be after holding for x amount of time. Nvidia is giving a small dividend of 0.8% plus or minus any value change.

I've only bought long term holdings when the market was cut in half. I've essentially held them, adding to some when I see fit.

I'm basically in a bunch of dividend blue chips, then a few 'long shots' when the market was crap.The market could turn back to crap. I've started to add some low cost index funds to help round out everything.

Regardless of where you put your money, you are always losing relative money. The key is to find where you are comfortable trying to minimize your loses.

If I put it in a bank account earning less than inflation, my dollars 'saved' will buy less next year. If I hit a 'hot stock' I've lost because there's another hot stock that I missed out on because I chose the other one. If I choose a bad stock, I've lost even more.

A friend inherited GE at almost 50/share before the market as a hole tanked. It went down a low around 7. He never bought more shares and it finally is up to 31 today. It is giving a near 3% dividend so at least he got something while it has fallen, but it doesn't cover the entire loss. Point of this is that if you do keep it, set a sell price so you don't hold on to something for too long.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Oil/WTI is up hard. Something about output freezes -- lololol? -- because that Doha deal totally worked out earlier in the year. Oh, and job numbers in the U.S. Seasonally adjusted job numbers, specifically -- once you see the non-seasonally adjusted numbers, it cannot be unseen.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
If negative interest rates, tons of QE, and the central bank buying up stocks results in 0.0% growth... I can only assume that even more negative interest rates, more QE, and the central bank buying up all the stocks is the only solution.

Japan's economy failed to grow on a quarterly basis during the April-June period, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth coming in at zero, missing forecasts.

Might be video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/14/japa...-on-quarter-missing-forecasts-for-growth.html
 

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,774
919
126
Anyone here gamble with XIV (VIX inverse)? Seems like you can make a fast buck or lose it all if the market drops any substantial amount.
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
The market has been like a stray dog. One may not look like it's going fast, but unimpeded, it can cover a lot of distance fast. What a blistering rally over the last 6 weeks.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
The market has been like a stray dog. One may not look like it's going fast, but unimpeded, it can cover a lot of distance fast. What a blistering rally over the last 6 weeks.

Wall Street must be getting pretty confident that there won't be a rate hike any time soon. Have to wonder if we will ever see 1% again.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^Two market tantrums in the past year when the Fed was close to raising rates and when they actually did it... a whole 0.25% from virtually 0% to 0.38%. Janet can't let that market go down. Hey, it's actually the one-year-ish anniversary of the first dump and pump last August.

And Canada's housing market may have started to roll over finally -- just like Australia, Hong Kong, and post-Brexit UK. Reports now coming out of drops in transaction volume in Toronto and Vancouver. Potential price drops in detached houses in Vancouver already happening.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,595
2,958
136
Keep an eye on disposable income, savings rate and personal consumption. There are indications that the US consumer is coming back and if that happens in a big way, things could turn around very quickly.

The next 6-12 months might be the best time to dump your fixed income assets and go to cash (or maybe equities) since if rates start to rise you'll have a paper loss. Personally, I'm holding on to mine because I need the money but if I didn't, I would seriously consider selling.
 

ImpulsE69

Lifer
Jan 8, 2010
14,946
1,077
126
I'm currently riding NUGT to see just how far it will go. I think we are good for awhile yet, especially after elections, I expect a huge jump regardless who wins.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^Reports now saying "only" 5,000-ish Cisco layoffs.

And Vancouver's housing market may have just imploded abruptly. This is the best part though.

...
she hasn’t had any nibbles on her $1.28 million, 59-year-old bungalow on Napier Street that she’s owned for over 20 years. She’s even cancelled an upcoming open house because she felt like it would be pointless.

She initially wanted to sell because the real estate windfall would allow her to purchase a turn-key property and pay the down-payment on houses for her grandchildren.

Might be a video:
http://globalnews.ca/news/2887766/data-is-the-metro-vancouver-real-estate-market-in-free-fall/

Wait, what? Ma & pa, or grandma & grandpa liquidating their assets and then handing money over to the kiddies that they then proceed to leverage up anywhere from 4 to 1 (loan to assets or mortgage to downpayment) to beyond?
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,938
12,384
126
www.anyf.ca
You know things are really bad when even tech companies are doing mass layoffs, which seems to be a trend in the last decade or so.

I know if I was to do it over again I would have went to school for trades and not tech. Trades will be pretty hard to outsource at least until prefab becomes to the point that it can do entire buildings and not just the shell.
 

turtile

Senior member
Aug 19, 2014
618
296
136
You know things are really bad when even tech companies are doing mass layoffs, which seems to be a trend in the last decade or so.

I know if I was to do it over again I would have went to school for trades and not tech. Trades will be pretty hard to outsource at least until prefab becomes to the point that it can do entire buildings and not just the shell.

It takes very few highly skilled people to do a lot of the work. The trend is going to lead to a shortage of skill if they never build the younger programmers/engineers.

People will always need things fixed and you don't even need to go to trade school to get started.

As for housing, I don't see it going up and up forever. I still don't understand what the US market is thinking. Where I live, the average buyer is 50+ and they somehow receive huge loans when they are nearing retirement. What happens when they get sick or can't work anymore? Pre-owned homes won't sell here either. And given the fact that the average age of first time home buyers is 34, this would mean that if someone kept the same house on a 30 year, it would take them until they are 64 to pay it off...
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
As for housing, I don't see it going up and up forever. I still don't understand what the US market is thinking. Where I live, the average buyer is 50+ and they somehow receive huge loans when they are nearing retirement. What happens when they get sick or can't work anymore? Pre-owned homes won't sell here either. And given the fact that the average age of first time home buyers is 34, this would mean that if someone kept the same house on a 30 year, it would take them until they are 64 to pay it off...

Last I heard, San Francisco and Miami markets are topping out, maybe even turning.

But don't worry, the banks learned in 2008 that the government will bail them out. If it talks and if it walks, give it a mortgage...
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,847
5,457
136
oil at $49/barrel?! up +$7/barrel in a week

WTF?!?!?!?!?!

I saw that; it was enough to motivate me to fill up. It's worth watching... the Feds are now sending mixed signals on whether they might do a rate hike soon and that seems to be confusing Wall St. Have to wonder if an oil rally would be enough to get them seriously thinking about it. Seems like a lot of volatility is coming until they get less confused.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
oil at $49/barrel?! up +$7/barrel in a week

WTF?!?!?!?!?!

Didn't you hear? Something something talk of OPEC meeting to freeze production. Oil closing in on $40? Bombard the headlines with "OPEC meeting" or "production freeze."

I really didn't want to believe it, but Fed probably won't do anything until after the election. Rate hike now to November = S&P 500 returns to 1800 or less == Trump wins. There's a FOMC meeting November 3/4, election is on 5/6? December hike maybe in play. May as well go into a corner and jerk off until then.

And Fed dumped the 2016 Q2 commercial/industrial delinquencies out, barely went up compared to Q1. Guess everything is fine.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,312
2,101
126
Ugh...I hate the new forum look. Too many similar looking elements and information crowded. I hate when websites are redesigned for mobile.

Anyway, Im thinking about dividend capturing...check this out:

http://www.dividend.com/dividend-stock-screener.php

(be sure to uncheck MLPs and ADRs as they will require filing special tax forms like K1-Partnership or foreign income considerations)

I also pick a 10% floor, which should focus on REITS. Buy before Ex-Dividend, collect on Pay Date.

Sell when price goes back to where you bought it. Only buy stable companies, do your own research.



 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
Filling the gap and more sellers than buyers. The uptrend is still intact.
Not sure what filling the gap is...nor that it necessarily means more sellers than buyers...but I'm now hoping for more buyers than sellers with a new long NUGT position at 105.78 (....while eyeing silver.)
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Markets are moving on unicorns and fairy dust... Or maybe meth, angel dust, and coke.
 
Reactions: Ken g6

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Not sure what filling the gap is...nor that it necessarily means more sellers than buyers...but I'm now hoping for more buyers than sellers with a new long NUGT position at 105.78 (....while eyeing silver.)

Not bad. I'm waiting for ~$17.50 silver before I pull the trigger.
 
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