***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Dodododo do do...

Shanghai markets opened just now... 2% or so lower.

Foreclosures up 30% year over year in Calgary, Alberta:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-foreclosures-spike-alberta-economy-1.3400803

Isolated? Or contagious?

P.S. Brent is below WTI again right now?

 

[Charmonium]

Dodododo do do...

Shanghai markets opened just now... 2% or so lower.

Foreclosures up 30% year over year in Calgary, Alberta:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/calgary-foreclosures-spike-alberta-economy-1.3400803

Isolated? Or contagious?

P.S. Brent is below WTI again right now?

Great article. Five years is a long time if you're trading for profit, but they will likely try to cut production long before that.

What they'll probably do is try to find the sweet spot where most US production is too expensive but they make enough money to avoid significant deficits.

 

[Imp]

Great article. Five years is a long time if you're trading for profit, but they will likely try to cut production long before that.

What they'll probably do is try to find the sweet spot where most US production is too expensive but they make enough money to avoid significant deficits.

I think their goal is simpler: kick shale producers in the balls so that they will never forget what competing with conventional, low-cost producers feels like.

In other words, make a lot of them go bankrupt -- word is it will begin soon. Banks will write off loans and won't lend as easily anymore. But if Exxon and Chevron buy the little guys off, that won't work so well.

 

[Udgnim]

Not in the mood to get into the oil debate... but here's a link showing the prices, I think, that Middle East countries need for their governments to break even.

Watch for AUTOPLAY VIDEO in link:
http://money.cnn.com/2015/10/25/investing/oil-prices-saudi-arabia-cash-opec-middle-east/

Saudis have $700 billion in cash?

Saudis had $700 billion in cash

Saudis are burning through their cash reserves to support their social programs while playing a high stakes game of chicken in oil and we're waiting to see who is going to blink first

in terms of solar, no financial reason to change over to it in Nevada anymore

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/13/solar-panel-energy-power-company-nevada

 

[StrangerGuy]

I think their goal is simpler: kick shale producers in the balls so that they will never forget what competing with conventional, low-cost producers feels like.

In other words, make a lot of them go bankrupt -- word is it will begin soon. Banks will write off loans and won't lend as easily anymore. But if Exxon and Chevron buy the little guys off, that won't work so well.

Saudi ain't fooling nobody, a few U.S shale oil players going bankrupt is nothing compared to an entire nation suffering from a severe case of Dutch disease in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Buy when the QQQs reach $100.

The only problem with todays QQQ bounce from $100.5 to $104.5 (intraday, at this moment), is that it shows you how weak this market is.

The next big move may depend on Q4 numbers:

Bad....QQQ $80s

Good...QQQ $??? (I dont know because 'good' might not be good enough)

Im short QQQ puts that expire on Friday 1/15/16 if that tells you anything.

 

[Charmonium]

The only problem with todays QQQ bounce from $100.5 to $104.5 (intraday, at this moment), is that it shows you how weak this market is.

The next big move may depend on Q4 numbers:

Bad....QQQ $80s

Good...QQQ $??? (I dont know because 'good' might not be good enough)

Im short QQQ puts that expire on Friday 1/15/16 if that tells you anything.

How many times have earnings estimates been reduced? I think at least a few. So one theory goes that eventually the estimates are going to be so low that companies would have to work to NOT beat them. Not sure if that will be q4 or not though.

 

[Imp]

Uh oh, JP Morgan may lose a ton to oil & gas. That can't be good for Canadian banks.

Rumor is now that Bank of Canada may cut interest rate to 0.25% from 0.50% next week. Put a fork in the CAD if that happens...

Edit: Aw, XOM went up like 7% in the past few days. Thought about playing that but, ya know.

 

[FelixDeCat]

How many times have earnings estimates been reduced? I think at least a few. So one theory goes that eventually the estimates are going to be so low that companies would have to work to NOT beat them. Not sure if that will be q4 or not though.

That was the theory with Intel - it 'beat' lowered estimates - and is down 2% after hours. Who knows what happens tomorrow though. I just hope I don't have to cover at loss tomorrow.

 

[Imp]

..............Lulz.

Premarket: Oil is down 4.5% at $29.80.

Shanghai market down 3.5%.

CAD is down to US$ 68.80... Can't wait to see what it's like at market close today.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well, guess I have to cover my $102 short.

 

[sm625]

$119 to $105 .... How much lower can oil go? 2014

$105 to $89 .... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$89 to $71 ... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$71 to $59 ... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$59 to $39 .... How much lower can oil go? 2015

$39 to $29.80 today.... How much lower can oil go? 2016

$29.80 to $19... How much lower can oil go?

$19 to $13 ... How much lower can oil go?

$13 to $5 ... How much lower can oil go?

$5 to $1 That's how much lower oil can go.

I think there is a realistic floor somewhere around $15. At that price it makes sense for anyone with money to start buying it and shoving it into a hole in the ground.

 

[sm625]

Well, guess I have to cover my $102 short.

At what time did you buy QQQ 102 puts?

 

[Staples]

I want to know if anyone has bought TVIX before (now especially). I've bought it a few times and mostly gotten burned. I bought a position a week ago. Thanks to the drop today I am dead even. But this fund moves so fast that it is scary (this is of course what stop orders are for).

 

[Udgnim]

I want to know if anyone has bought TVIX before (now especially). I've bought it a few times and mostly gotten burned. I bought a position a week ago. Thanks to the drop today I am dead even. But this fund moves so fast that it is scary (this is of course what stop orders are for).

it's 2X leveraged

anything that tracks futures is usually meant for day traders or short term momentum traders

 

[11thHour]

I want to know if anyone has bought TVIX before (now especially). I've bought it a few times and mostly gotten burned. I bought a position a week ago. Thanks to the drop today I am dead even. But this fund moves so fast that it is scary (this is of course what stop orders are for).

That double and triple stuff is viciously unforgiving.

 

[Staples]

it's 2X leveraged

anything that tracks futures is usually meant for day traders or short term momentum traders

I've noticed. It may jump when the market drops but it drops many times as fast when the market grows. Definitely not anything a long term investor should buy.

 

[Artdeco]

Yep, I'll used leveraged ETF's but try really hard to be out of them the same day.

 

[ponyo]

It's ugly out there so I added more Twitter in the high $17s.

 

[Artdeco]

Yikes, Wal Mart closing 150 stores//SAMs Clubs/Neighborhood Markets in the US, >250 world wide.

 

[Hugo Drax]

looks like markets gonna be higher Monday

 

[brianmanahan]

Yikes, Wal Mart closing 150 stores//SAMs Clubs/Neighborhood Markets in the US, >250 world wide.

most of those US closings are their walmart mini-marts though, which are just a failed experiment

 

[AdamK47]

Everyone, it's time to panic! Ahhhhhhhhh!

 

[FelixDeCat]

At what time did you buy QQQ 102 puts?

Yesterday long 101.5 puts, short 102. Today covered when the QQQs near 102 and sold the 101.5s when it turned back down later. Took a small loss, funded by puts when the market topped near the close. Small gain today, thank God.

I am net long $100 QQQs for next week. May short calls if there is no big turnaround.

 

[sm625]

Thank GOD in HEAVEN I bought puts near the close yesterday when I saw the QQQs go down from ~$105 to $104.

I was this close to buying some puts at 3:14pm yesterday. It was right at the frickin top. That would have been a 20-bagger. I havent made a single trade so far this year and that was the moment where it felt right. But I didnt go for it. Oh well. There will be plenty of opportunities to come...