***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Mainstream media is now actually picking up the Deutsche Bank story after focusing on Italy's banks which itself hasn't been solved. Wait until they look into all the other European banks in trouble... And Brexit hasn't even been initiated yet.

Stock now at €10.25... that's only a couple percent lower than Monday.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/DBK:GR

Don't worry, they'll probably all get bailed out with printed money. Deutsche's $30 trillion or whatever in derivatives is supposedly all covered/balanced -- hope they didn't screw anything up because a 1% screw up equates to $300 billion.

 

[turtile]

I'm surprised these banks stocks haven't fallen further. I think if oil actually goes up in price, a lot of this money will shift over to oil and other commodities.

 

[Imp]

And Deutsche Bank broke the €10 mark down to €9.90 before going back up. Only 6 or 7 hours until the German market closes and we can sleep on it over the weekend when all the European banks will magically get better...

Edit: And all is well again, Deutsche is up 14% on the day because they allegedly settled with the DOJ for ~$5.4 billion. If anyone bothered to read the articles on the day the fine was announced, they would have known it would be in the $4 billion range because other banks settled in the, if I recall correctly, 20% to 40% of initial fine range. Guess that takes care of all their structural issues too along with all the other distressed EU banks.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Sold all but one ounce of my physical silver this weekend.

 

[edro]

Where did you sell? Craigslist, coin shop, online?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gold / Silver exchange. I found out most local shops buy below spot and sell above. Big surprise, huh.

I got $19 /ounce

 

[ponyo]

Gold / Silver exchange. I found out most local shops buy below spot and sell above. Big surprise, huh.

I got $19 /ounce

You only had around 20 ounces of ASE, right? At least you found out before you had lot of money invested. ASE average buyback price is around $1.50 over spot at major online dealers. But that's on bulk sale. You should never sell ASE for below spot. Difference in your case would've been like $30. Nothing to worry about.

 

[Imp]

So much for that Deutsche Bank deal... Hey, but at least people made money by starting a Twitter rumor.

They'll likely settle around $5 billion for real. Nice jumping of the gun though.

 

[FelixDeCat]

You only had around 20 ounces of ASE, right? At least you found out before you had lot of money invested. ASE average buyback price is around $1.50 over spot at major online dealers. But that's on bulk sale. You should never sell ASE for below spot. Difference in your case would've been like $30. Nothing to worry about.

Mine were "circulated". I played with them nearly every day.

 

[FelixDeCat]

So much for that Deutsche Bank deal... Hey, but at least people made money by starting a Twitter rumor.

They'll likely settle around $5 billion for real. Nice jumping of the gun though.

TWTR is on course to lose yet another FIVE HUNDRED MILLION dollars this year. In fact, they have never made money. It worked for Amazon, but I dont think it will work for Twitter.

Twitter has a current market cap of $16B.

 

[Imp]

I still don't know how Twitter makes money. I sometimes see sponsored posts or hashtags... that's about it.

 

[Miramonti]

Nugt, ouch, bought some at 15.29, and even that might get rough.

 

[JEDI]

why is oil jumping when the dollar index is increasing 1/2 percent, making the USD more ALOT expensive?

 

[dullard]

Sold all but one ounce of my physical silver this weekend.

Nice move. Will you join me in buying back in when the price is much lower? I'm aiming for $12/ounce, but hopefully it will go even lower.

 

[Miramonti]

Nice move. Will you join me in buying back in when the price is much lower? I'm aiming for $12/ounce, but hopefully it will go even lower.

If that happens anytime soon, you'll have a friend in me. But unfortunately, at least from the perspective of a potential investment opportunity, that's not going to happen in this calendar year, the next, or even...

 

[dullard]

If that happens anytime soon, you'll have a friend in me. But unfortunately, at least from the perspective of a potential investment opportunity, that's not going to happen in this calendar year, the next, or even...

The 2016 calendar year? I bet that you are correct about that. Probably not going to happen.

But over 6 months, silver can drop quite a bit. It dropped from ~$40/ounce to ~$30/ounce in 6 months in late 2011/early 2012 (~25% loss). It dropped from ~$30/ounce to ~$20/ounce in 6 months in early 2013/mid 2013 (~33% loss). It dropped from ~$20/ounce to ~$15/ounce in 6 months in mid 2014/late 2014 (~25% loss).

Another 33% loss in 6 months is not out of reach (heck with today's drop it is even more likely to happen). That would put it at $12/ounce.

Do I know when it will happen? No, my crystal ball isn't that good. But as countries are running out of spare cash and they have lots of built up metal stocks, it is getting tempting for them to cash out. Plus, as interest rates rise (probably early 2017) that will put a lot of pressure on metal prices too. Also, long-term, commodity prices should revert to the cost to produce them, which for silver is about $9/ounce, give or take $1/ounce. So, I'm fairly confident that by late 2017 silver prices will much more likely be down than up.

 

[ponyo]

I'm pretty confident silver will not drop below $17. Enough in fact that I will place sizable bet with SLV when and if it gets near it. I think silver will bottom out in the low to mid $17 before climbing towards $24. That's my guess and how I plan to play it.

 

[dullard]

I'm pretty confident silver will not drop below $17. Enough in fact that I will place sizable bet with SLV when and if it gets near it. I think silver will bottom out in the low to mid $17 before climbing towards $24. That's my guess and how I plan to play it.

It is $17.90 right now and dropping like a rock. Get ready to hit that buy button.

 

[Miramonti]

The 2016 calendar year? I bet that you are correct about that. Probably not going to happen.

But over 6 months, silver can drop quite a bit. It dropped from ~$40/ounce to ~$30/ounce in 6 months in late 2011/early 2012 (~25% loss). It dropped from ~$30/ounce to ~$20/ounce in 6 months in early 2013/mid 2013 (~33% loss). It dropped from ~$20/ounce to ~$15/ounce in 6 months in mid 2014/late 2014 (~25% loss).

Another 33% loss in 6 months is not out of reach (heck with today's drop it is even more likely to happen). That would put it at $12/ounce.

Do I know when it will happen? No, my crystal ball isn't that good. But as countries are running out of spare cash and they have lots of built up metal stocks, it is getting tempting for them to cash out. Plus, as interest rates rise (probably early 2017) that will put a lot of pressure on metal prices too. Also, long-term, commodity prices should revert to the cost to produce them, which for silver is about $9/ounce, give or take $1/ounce. So, I'm fairly confident that by late 2017 silver prices will much more likely be down than up.

I think when you get insane rallies, you can get insane drops that follow when momentum reverses, and most of those mentioned seem close to that possibly having been the case. But I don't see this current price range as a result of a particularly insane rally, even tho it was getting pretty strong recently. So without that, a drop to $12 would be pretty insane, entering a range (and possibly volatility) that hasn't been seen for a long time. I'd never say never, but that's why I think is its unlikely. Just my 2 cents.

 

[ponyo]

It is $17.90 right now and dropping like a rock. Get ready to hit that buy button.

Bring it. It's what I've been patiently waiting for. I expected possible one more push down to the low $17 level before the real move up. Same with gold. I expected possible drop down to $1,260-1,280 level and breaking the uptrend chart and taking out stops and panicking technical guys. So I just bought GLD since it's in range of my target. SLV is next when it hits my price target.

 

[dullard]

Bring it. It's what I've been patiently waiting for. I expected possible one more push down to the low $17 level before the real move up. Same with gold. I expected possible drop down to $1,260-1,280 level and breaking the uptrend chart and taking out stops and panicking technical guys. So I just bought GLD since it's in range of my target. SLV is next when it hits my price target.

I'm loving my DSLV position today. No reason in the world for it to go up (other than irrational fear). But, good luck to you.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nice move. Will you join me in buying back in when the price is much lower? I'm aiming for $12/ounce, but hopefully it will go even lower.

You betcha! Silver was in the $13-$14 range back in January. I would love to revisit those lows.

My plan was to sell my 15 ounces of silver and buy one retail ounce of gold for $1358 on an Ebay deal this weekend, but got cold feet on buying (but went ahead and sold the silver). PCS on Ebay had a "daily deal" for $39.99 over gold spot. They sold almost 600 OUNCES OF GOLD!!

NOW Im glad I had second thoughts.

edit: Thanks to Ponyo's advice, I signed up for Ebay spam and get all sorts of ideas!

 

[ponyo]

You betcha! Silver was in the $13-$14 range back in January. I would love to revisit those lows.

My plan was to sell my 15 ounces of silver and buy one retail ounce of gold for $1358 on an Ebay deal this weekend, but got cold feet on buying (but went ahead and sold the silver). PCS on Ebay had a "daily deal" for $39.99 over gold spot. They sold almost 600 OUNCES OF GOLD!!

NOW Im glad I had second thoughts.

edit: Thanks to Ponyo's advice, I signed up for Ebay spam and get all sorts of ideas!

I cashed in $500 eBay Bucks. Bullion Exchanges on eBay has 1 oz gold bar for $5 over spot. But gold chart is broken. The next technical support for gold is down at $1,200.

 

[Miramonti]

Nugt obliterated, down almost 30% today alone. No need to take a shower tonight when I just took a bath. Step in front of a train and sometimes you get run over.

 

[Imp]

Federal government in Canada changed mortgage insurance rules yesterday. Something about needing to qualify for a higher rate than people are actually paying now to get mortgage insurance -- bla bla bla I ain't got the learning on this. Genworth Canada's stock tanked almost 9% today.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/ottawa-housing-tax-real-estate-1.3788725

And Metro Vancouver's home sales fell about 33% year over year in September.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/vancouver-real-estate-sales-1.3790373

Good times a'coming!