***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[dullard]

Added 1/4 more GLD and SLV today. Now I'm at 75% position. Let's see if we get a dead cat bounce next week.

We've been in one since Feb 2016.

 

[ponyo]

We've been in one since Feb 2016.

That's one way to look at it. You seem to have long view for someone who trades 3X leveraged ETF. I hope you didn't get trapped on a losing trade since Feb and still holding out of stubbornness. Because DSLV was $50-60 back in Feb and I don't think it's going back to that level.

 

[Miramonti]

You seem to have long view for someone who trades 3X leveraged ETF.

Lol...not sure if I'm laughing at the witty retort, or my own mercurial feelings about 3x's.

 

[dullard]

That's one way to look at it. You seem to have long view for someone who trades 3X leveraged ETF. I hope you didn't get trapped on a losing trade since Feb and still holding out of stubbornness. Because DSLV was $50-60 back in Feb and I don't think it's going back to that level.

DSLV isn't too bad to hold long term. I've posted many of my buys and sells here. But if you don't want to look them up:

• I've purchased DSLV at $20.05 (9/13/2012) and sold it all at $26.86 (12/31/2012). Held it for more than 3 months, but wanted to lock in gains that tax year.
• I repurchased it at $24.74 (1/14/2013) which was a bad move even though it was a profit from my sale 2 weeks before that. Bought more at $21.95 (1/22/2013) which was when I should have purchased it all. Sold it all at $25.77 (2/14/2013). Only held that a few weeks.
• I repurchased it at $41.80 (8/15/2013) and again at $38.98 (8/23/2013). Sold both of those at $77.58 (8/26/2015). Yes, I held DSLV for 2 full years.
• I repurchased it at $18.00 (7/13/2016). I've held onto it since then. So, I've had it for almost 3 months already. I'll sell it if silver drops to the $12 range, if DSLV peaks even temporarily above say $40.00, or if Dec 31, 2016 hits and I'm in a profitable range, whichever comes first.

I did the same with ZSL before that. But didn't want to take the time to look up those dates and hold times. Each time I've profited handsomely. I've gotten very lucky on some of those sale dates (I tend to sell well, but often buy a few weeks too soon), but riding the 2X and 3X silver roller coaster has been like shooting fish in a barrel as silver is on a multi-year plunge.

It is all basically fun money for me. Generally a few thousand dollars of gains each time (back in the ZSL days it was a few hundred). It isn't like I'm gambling my 401k away with this. I stick to boring, reliable Vanguard buy and hold for an eternity funds for that. Heck, it isn't even all of my taxable stock money. I generally buy Vanguard funds in dips for that and donate them to charity at peaks.

 

[KingstonU]

I just finally broke even with Gold last month and I didn't pull the trigger. Blasted! The waiting continues till I finally rid myself of this volatile precious metals markets forever.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This is a crazy market for sure.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TWTR now exactly $17, down another $2+ dollars. I expect the next "buyout" rumor to be floated soon, maybe after earnings. I feel sorry for anyone who did not sell at $24. Those poor "investors" are now probably upset at believing all the hype.

 

[Imp]

Kaboom up goes oil... Wonder what the rumor is today.

 

[ponyo]

Sold GLD and SLV. GLD for slight loss and SLV for slight gain. Overall was slight net loss near entry cost. I bought it for bounceback trade and instead just got sideway action. The longer it stays flatline, the oversold condition works itself off and it becomes susceptible to further selloff. I might buy it again or short it depending on how it moves. In meantime, I'm out.

 

[Imp]

Come on November... one more month until this stupid election is over.

The S&P 500 has been holding in a ~50 point range since July. What the hell.

 

[JEDI]

oil risen to $51, yet the US Dollar index is in the stratosphere at 98?!
that makes oil more expensive to buy since the dollar is Strong.

so wtf high oil prices?

 

[Imp]

^The way I see it, if DXY weren't higher, oil would be even higher. DXY looks like it's pricing in a December hike.

Go "agreement." I also "agree" on world peace and free waffles for all.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I think the election will cause a volatile spike in equities, metals, etc.

 

[twizzlebizzle22]

I finally moved some money over to a fund. Can't bare to buy individual stocks.

 

[brianmanahan]

I finally moved some money over to a fund. Can't bare to buy individual stocks.

i rarely buy individual securities anymore either. maybe once every couple years for a short term bet with play money.

 

[Imp]

Something just clicked with me. Do employment statistics count Uber/Lyft drivers and Airbnb?

Rhetorical question, of course it does.

Edit: Written by the CEO and President of the CMHC (Canadian Mortgage & Housing Corporation). They insure "less than prime" -- but don't say "sub" -- loans and are government backed.

They will cause us to issue our first “red” warning for the Canadian housing market as a whole.

High levels of indebtedness coupled with elevated house prices are often followed by economic contractions. In their book House of Debt, economists Atif Mian and Amir Suri called the relationship “so robust as to be as close to an empirical law as it gets in macroeconomics.” The conditions we now observe in Canada concern us.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repo...nces-of-new-housing-policies/article32383166/

And I think the new mortgage rules just kicked in today. Bank of Canada meeting should also be this week. Wonder if they'll drop the rate now that mortgage rates are artificially inflated.

 

[Imp]

Things are starting to get entertaining in the housing bubble world.

I've been keeping track of Australia's housing market since early this year and there appears to be more talk of housing bubbles in Australian papers lately. Something about an apartment glut in Melbourne and elsewhere. Stories of mining towns and Perth being hit already, but now I'm seeing anecdotal stories out of Sydney and Melbourne -- two biggest cities by population. Mortgage delinquencies are up:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-10-...it-record-levels-in-two-states-and-nt/7946056

And the stats are showing a major drop in sales in Vancouver, Canada. Anecdotal stories showing up of price drops and for sale signs.

Haven't heard much out of Hong Kong, they were crashing late last year into early this year. Then I heard about it stabilizing or going up. Bull trap stage of a bubble?


Ford shutdown or decreased capacity at some American and Mexican auto plants this week. Italian and German banks still in the shitter, Brexit is supposedly moving forwrad...

We live in great times.

Edit: And Bank of Canada, allegedly, almost cut the rate from 0.50% today.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...y-convinced-policymakers-to-hold-rate-instead

 

[MomentsofSanity]

TD Ameritrade will be acquiring Scottrade in a $4B deal.

 

[Imp]

^Also in M&A news, AT&T bought Time Warner... AT&T is down 2% today? Used to own it for the dividend but it went sideways for a long time. Looked at the 1 year chart and it took a trip to the mid-$40 range. Now it's back to mid-$30.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TD Ameritrade will be acquiring Scottrade in a $4B deal.

At first I thought this was a joke then I remember what a joke Scottrade had become. I used to use ST from 2001 until 2008 but then they got weird on me. Later they placed limits on the amount of money you could withdraw from your account and other bizarre things. The final straw was the refusal to lower option contract costs from $1.25 to .$.75 like all the other brokerages. FINALLY they lowered the cost just THIS year to .70, but it was too late. Scottrade was done.

What I liked about ST "back in the day" was they were known for being a hold of hard to borrow shares for shorting. During the early part of the 2007-2008 financial crises, I used to be crazy daytrader.

In one case I shorted 10,000 - 15,000 shares of Fremont Financial, hoping to make a dime move intraday. Usually I got it and walked away with $1000+/-. I was a very popular trader at the branch and usually borrowed every share I could get my hands on.

One day I covered and went long Fremont....then all of a sudden I saw the 10,000 shares I had long go from $5 to $6.50 within a few minutes. I made $15,000 that day on a rumor they would get bought out.

Fremont never got bought out .... they went bankrupt!!

 

[Miramonti]

n/m

 

[KB]

^Also in M&A news, AT&T bought Time Warner... AT&T is down 2% today? Used to own it for the dividend but it went sideways for a long time. Looked at the 1 year chart and it took a trip to the mid-$40 range. Now it's back to mid-$30.

I have owned AT&T many times in the past, but you may get a better return buying TWX. If the deal falls through, the stock may return to its recent price of $80, a loss of ~10% from the ~$88 price it has now. But if it goes through, you get > 20% return at $107/share plus you get a small dividend while you wait. OIdds of the deal are probebly >50% because they aren't buying a competitor.

 

[Imp]

Red alert! Red alert! Red alert! Canada's housing market!

It's the first time the agency has raised its assessment of the overall market to red. In July, the agency was waving a yellow flag.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-housing-market-analysis-1.3822175

Classic government agency. Warn people after the problem is so big it's ready to implode the national economy and destroy lives. And according to sales numbers (not prices), it's been rolling over in Vancouver for half a year now.

It's all under control people! Never mind that the very agency providing this warning is the one providing mortgage insurance to the tune of $550 billion or something on mortgages with <20% down?

 

[zinfamous]

Red alert! Red alert! Red alert! Canada's housing market!



http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cmhc-housing-market-analysis-1.3822175

Classic government agency. Warn people after the problem is so big it's ready to implode the national economy and destroy lives. And according to sales numbers (not prices), it's been rolling over in Vancouver for half a year now.

It's all under control people! Never mind that the very agency providing this warning is the one providing mortgage insurance to the tune of $550 billion or something on mortgages with <20% down?

The only thing that worries me here is the effect on cost of Maple Syrup imports.

 

[Imp]

^You shouldn't. If the housing market implodes, the Canadian dollar will probably do the Venezuela whatever, and you should be buying maple by the kilo.