Just came in to our trade floor. Not proprietary. Enjoy Wednesday!
Sector Analysis (Source: Bloomberg)
Equities:
Clinton wins: S&P 500 Index could gain as much as 3 percent and big losers would be finance, drug companies and banks.
Yeah I don't know if I agree with that part either. Banks like predictability. Certainty. I don't see as big an impact with a Clinton victory. Time will tell though.Drug companies are already laggards so I think Drug companies fall may be priced in. Interesting that banks would suffer under Clinton when they did so well under Bill and they have given Hillary so much money. Plus higher bond yields in fixed income are good for banks and bond trading is good for finance.
From what I've heard, boomers and "regular" people aren't saving much for retirement with more than a few needing to work in retirement because they have no or not enough money.
This random survey suggests that only about 22% of 55+ people in early 2016 had $300k+ in retirement savings. That group's distribution probably peaks closer to $300k than $1M.
Might be video:
http://time.com/money/4258451/retirement-savings-survey/
<UK emigrant> says that since arriving in Toronto a decade ago, he and his wife have purchased three houses and two condos.
But he rejects the idea that their property investments are contributing to the affordability crisis in the city's red-hot real estate market.
I am really tempted to buy physical gold right now. I'm only in the market for Eagles and am willing to pay the markup for it because its extremely easy to sell with a large pool of interested buyers of government gold.
The cheapest $50 Gold Eagles are going for $1326 an ounce. Last week the cheapest was $1370. In the last four weeks the cheapest was $1305 an ounce. These are the "ask" prices. The bid price (spot) is currently $1280. I was looking at maybe buying ~$4,000 and hoping to sell at $4,500, a move of $166 an ounce. That is not unreasonable, considering we are about $100 off the 52 week high.
Also, I think turmoil around the election might cause a spike in gold (it already has gone up), I just don't know by how much. Hopefully things settle down, so I would probably sell into the spike. If there is some sort of crises over either's legal problems, it could keep the markets roiled and inflate the price of gold higher than it is now.
What has been holding me back is the Fed's possible action in December. They have been gunning for a hike but now seem to be backing off. A hike or even more talk of a hike would cause gold to drop. Political turmoil might continue the pause in rates, which is good for metals.
I had SPY puts and GDX, I was kicking myself for not selling on Friday, now I wish I had more
Dow is going to be down 1000 tomorrow, but, if you look at how much it swung vs Trump win probability, the market was pricing in a 15% difference between Trump and Clinton win, so that's about 2000 total drop. So I would not necessarily be in line to buy the dip at this point. US is damaged goods now, like UK after Brexit. A country that elects people like Trump presents a political risk on invested capital that has to be discounted either through reduced valuations or cheaper currency. So, hold on to your collective butts.
The last time we had a Brexit type reaction it was temporary. I might consider buying longer term calls on the QQQs if the overreaction holds.
More of a Cheeto Swan event.So, does this classify as a "Black Swan" event?