***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[ctbaars]

First world problem: Lost 10% of my retirement this year so far.

 

[dr150]

First world problem: Lost 10% of my retirement this year so far.

Everybody's taking it up the ass the past two years.

Relax and let the cyclical magic of history and the markets escalate you up by the time you reach retirement age.

 

[poohbear]

So stock market has already hit correction territory... but I'm hoping it has bottomed out. If it keeps dropping next week then I'll be way below my principal investment....not sure how much longer I can old out before selling. The thing is I'm Canadian & all my stocks are American. So when oil drops & the stock market drops with it, the Canadian dollar drops too. So I make up a bit in the exchange rate. Assuming the stock market recovers in 2 months (and the Canadian dollar will still be low), I'm set to regain all my losses & then some. Sound strategy to hold & not join the panic bandwagon?

 

[IronWing]

Are we there yet? I want to buy.

 

[nk215]

I am buying in a big way. The way I look at it. The stock right now is in the 2013 level. I’ve been kicking myself for not investing early enough. So when I buy now, it has the same effect as buying in 2013.

 

[MustISO]

I'm holding out for at least a little while, if I miss a bounce so be it but there's still a lot of fear (real or otherwise) that can take the market down some more.

 

[dullard]

I am buying in a big way. The way I look at it. The stock right now is in the 2013 level. I’ve been kicking myself for not investing early enough. So when I buy now, it has the same effect as buying in 2013.

With the exception of dividends, which too many people forget is generally about half of the total gain that you should expect with stocks.

 

[Engineer]

looks like markets gonna be higher Monday

Markets are closed on Monday.

 

[Imp]

Markets are closed on Monday.

What holiday is in the middle of January... I can look it up in 5 seconds, but, ya know.

Beauriful... I'm up 4.8% on the year just 2 weeks in. Too bad everything is 45% more expensive now -- like the two year old Chromebox I want that MSRP'd for US$ 180 but is now CA$ 230. Dafuq.

GOing to try to avoid touching anything until Iran starts pumping (rumor is this weekend?), and their numbers start hitting oil inventory numbers. Then I have to worry about China's economy tipping over and the government being unable to prop it up as much.

 

[Imp]

Something something VIX crossing WTI price marking bottom.

On the other hand, VIX and WTI in the same chart were essentially parallel between 1996 to 2003. So, it's the bottom unless WTI prices aren't in bubble territory anymore... Go go technical analysis?

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/15/the-last-time-vix-closed-above-oil-it-was-time-to-buy-stocks.html

 

[brianmanahan]

What holiday is in the middle of January... I can look it up in 5 seconds, but, ya know.

MLKJ day

 

[Ricochet]

I'm holding out for at least a little while, if I miss a bounce so be it but there's still a lot of fear (real or otherwise) that can take the market down some more.

My sentiment exactly. I have some cash sitting on the sideline.

 

[Staples]

Yep, I'll used leveraged ETF's but try really hard to be out of them the same day.

I sold it today. Within a week I was down 30% and when I sold it, up 5%.

If you wake up and the Asian markets lose a ton, it should be safe to buy leveraged short positions before the market opens EXCEPT when you buy on Etrade, you won't get in before the NYSE reacts to the day's events.

 

[Imp]

Game over for oil?

Iran's, apparently, done its part of the deal.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-frees-prisoners-1.3407089

Are 0.50 to 1 million barrels a day going to start flowing?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Someone exercised my short call option and now I have to deliver $100,000 worth of QQQs on Tuesday.

I've been assigned before but nothing like this. I called the broker and they said I can cover the short position in the open market first thing Tuesday or exercise the call option to take delivery.

Now I get to worry the rest of weekend!

 

[Imp]

^^^I don't do options so always get calls and puts confused. "Call to Buy" and "Put to Sell because Put doesn't rhyme with anything nor does Call actually, except Call to Sell but that's wrong."

Iran sanctions have apparently been lifted. One day from Asia market open...

This might be an amazing week: Iran sanctions lifted and Bank of Canada may cut interest rate.

 

[Charmonium]

Someone exercised my short call option and now I have to deliver $100,000 worth of QQQs on Tuesday.

I've been assigned before but nothing like this. I called the broker and they said I can cover the short position in the open market first thing Tuesday or exercise the call option to take delivery.

Now I get to worry the rest of weekend!

I don't understand. Did you have 2 call options - one you sold and one you bought? If you don't own one what are you going to take delivery of. And if you didn't sell one, then what was assigned?

 

[SSSnail]

Wrong thread.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I don't understand. Did you have 2 call options - one you sold and one you bought? If you don't own one what are you going to take delivery of. And if you didn't sell one, then what was assigned?

This was a calendar short call spread. Before the close on Friday I shorted the 101 calls expiring that day against my long 100 calls expiring next Friday. The QQQs closed at $100.84, so I thought I was okay, but apparently it was called anyway.

If we are up big on Tuesday, my only option will be to exercise my long call (it cost $2,280) and get the shares to cover the short at the face value of $100 for each share (a loss of $1,280).

It is going to be REAL fun on Tuesday!

 

[brianmanahan]

i heard it (through the grapevine) that tuesday is gonna be another big drop

 

[JEDI]

What holiday is in the middle of January... I can look it up in 5 seconds, but, ya know.

it's a holiday for a great black leader... Obama Day!

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

i heard it (through the grapevine) that tuesday is gonna be another big drop

details as to why? Glad I held off on buying Friday - but like I said earlier... I had a deep stomach feeling that the worst had yet to come.

 

[JEDI]

i heard it (through the grapevine) that tuesday is gonna be another big drop

magic 8ball says as long as oil continues to fall, the stock market will follow.

altho I don't know how much impact, if any, that iran's 1 barrel/day will have.

did the US allowing oil exports affect the oil market?

 

[Udgnim]

magic 8ball says as long as oil continues to fall, the stock market will follow.

altho I don't know how much impact, if any, that iran's 1 barrel/day will have.

did the US allowing oil exports affect the oil market?

when US oil was OKed to be exported, price of a barrel of Brent oil (north Europe) went below WTI (US benchmark)

Brent has historically been priced higher than WTI

 

[Imp]

magic 8ball says as long as oil continues to fall, the stock market will follow.

altho I don't know how much impact, if any, that iran's 1 barrel/day will have.

did the US allowing oil exports affect the oil market?

Numbers I've heard are that global oil supply is currently 0.5 to 2.0 million oversupplied/day. Iran can supposedly dump up to 1 million barrels/day on the market -- they may do more as a "fuck you" to Saudi Arabia, same with Saudi Arabia to Iran.

It might be somewhat priced in for oil from Friday's big drop. Or oil was reacting to China's slide on Friday, which hits the demand side.

I have no idea what's going to happen, but none of it sounds good for the CAD, which is my all-in trade.

when US oil was OKed to be exported, price of a barrel of Brent oil (north Europe) went below WTI (US benchmark)

Brent has historically been priced higher than WTI

I keep forgetting about that... explains why Brent's been above WTI every so often lately.