***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Miramonti]

Exactly what proof do you want?

Don't feed the trolling.

 

[Kazukian]

Don't feed the trolling.

I guess not...

 

[FelixDeCat]

In other news NUGT bit me in the ass again. Yellen said what everybody already knew - rates are going up - derp! And it was holding steady at $9.50. I have some shares at that price. Then it took a dump when bond yields starting going up again and metals were target of shorts.

NUGT fell from $9.50 to $8.18 and recovered to $8.65. I sold some Dec.2 $9 calls against my position as a hedge. But I wonder if we see the $7s or $9s tomorrow.

 

[Imp]

Just looked up DXY... 100.89 points. Highest on the 5 year chart I looked at.

And I think I read a blurb about Yellen's meeting today and her saying it's bad to keep rates so low for so long because of risk taking? Fuck off... Welcome to years ago.

Edit: And damn... I thought the 10-year Treasury stalled at 2.20%. It's now at 2.3%.

 

[Kazukian]

LOL, not again.... trading halted.

Back in 500 shares at $15.37

And halted agin

 

[Kazukian]

Who needs Vegas?

 

[MomentsofSanity]

LOL, not again.... trading halted.

Back in 500 shares at $15.37

And halted agin

And back trading. and back up. This defies any conventional reason especially on a NASDAQ listed stock.

 

[Miramonti]

LOL, not again.... trading halted.

Back in 500 shares at $15.37

And halted agin

Glutton!

And back trading. and back up. This defies any conventional reason especially on a NASDAQ listed stock.

These are "Volatility Trading Pauses" [circuit breakers based on preset % intraday movement]. It's not common these days for a stock's circuit breaker trip every hour, lol. The previous DRYS halt that finally opened yesterday was for 'nasdaq Request for More Information'.

 

[Kazukian]

Glutton!


These are "Volatility Trading Pauses" [circuit breakers based on preset % intraday movement]. It's not common these days for a stock's circuit breaker trip every hour, lol. The previous DRYS halt that finally opened yesterday was for 'nasdaq Request for More Information'.

I love the pain...

Felix the cat, what resources do you use? You're really on top of stuff...

 

[SketchMaster]

I'll let everyone else have fun with DRYS, I'm still licking my wounds.

In other news, what's everyone view on Ford? I'm getting a bit fatigued watching it fall year after year.

 

[KB]

I'll let everyone else have fun with DRYS, I'm still licking my wounds.

In other news, what's everyone view on Ford? I'm getting a bit fatigued watching it fall year after year.

I had Ford but sold it due to the same fatigue. The market can be fickle and does not care for negative revenue growth, despite a 5% dividend and record low single digit P/E. Ford is likely to see several quarters of shrinking revenue as we reached Peak Auto a few quarters ago so I don't expect a turnaround until revenue does.
I do still hold GM however. GM is in a better position as the bankruptcy eliminated a lot of legacy debt and they are willing and able to buyback shares while they are cheap. GM also raises its dividend yearly and has invested in electric vehicles to compete with Tesla and Toyota.

Good luck

 

[zinfamous]

I heard a few weeks ago--Marketplace, I think--that Ford has been putting a lot of R&D into level 4-5 autonomous vehicle development, and they've been on this for more than 10 years now, unlike the other bigs. Assuming they nail it, then they are probably poised to come out with a big lead (in a market that will eventually be what cellular networks are, today) when we hit that adoption.

 

[Imp]

Last I heard, there was something going on with subprime auto-loans and the outlook on the auto market wasn't good.

 

[Udgnim]

Last I heard, there was something going on with subprime auto-loans and the outlook on the auto market wasn't good.

pretty certain that the market sees the car market at peak demand which is why stocks like F and GM have such low PE ratios

 

[Imp]

This is bullshit... PFF and PSK have a trailing yield of about 6% and 7%, respectively, right now. Part of me would be happy dumping my money in and walking away until I'm on my deathbed... but if rates actually go up and if some sort of financial crisis occurs, I could probably buy in way lower with a much higher yield + cap gains.

Average of ~8 years between crises and we have China's insane debt, Canada or Australia's housing/debt bubble, a so called global bond bubble, potential Italexit, Italian bank crisis, Deutsche et al., Brexit, Eurozone collapse, oil glut, Fed's 8 years of free money...

Edit: And I haven't looked at oil ETFs in a while but something about DWTI being "delisted?"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-most-popular-leveraged-oil-184119673.html

 

[zinfamous]

Last I heard, there was something going on with subprime auto-loans and the outlook on the auto market wasn't good.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s

 

[Imp]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4U2eDJnwz_s

Don't worry, from the stories I've seen, the quantity of subprime auto loans are a joke compared to student loans... but I think most student loans are held by the guberment and non-dischargeable in bankruptcy.

 

[repoman0]

This is bullshit... PFF and PSK have a trailing yield of about 6% and 7%, respectively, right now. Part of me would be happy dumping my money in and walking away until I'm on my deathbed... but if rates actually go up and if some sort of financial crisis occurs, I could probably buy in way lower with a much higher yield + cap gains.

Average of ~8 years between crises and we have China's insane debt, Canada or Australia's housing/debt bubble, a so called global bond bubble, potential Italexit, Italian bank crisis, Deutsche et al., Brexit, Eurozone collapse, oil glut, Fed's 8 years of free money...

Edit: And I haven't looked at oil ETFs in a while but something about DWTI being "delisted?"

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-most-popular-leveraged-oil-184119673.html

I'm wondering if it's a good time to start pulling a bit out of the stock market. I already took my savings out a few weeks ago and now I have been thinking about parking some of my retirement for a while. It won't matter much either way because I'm 30ish years away from retirement, but I have a feeling this upcoming administration is going to be an absolute disaster, along with everything else on the horizon.

 

[dullard]

I'm wondering if it's a good time to start pulling a bit out of the stock market. I already took my savings out a few weeks ago and now I have been thinking about parking some of my retirement for a while. It won't matter much either way because I'm 30ish years away from retirement, but I have a feeling this upcoming administration is going to be an absolute disaster, along with everything else on the horizon.

As all of the "world is ending" republicans start investing after 8 years of being out of the market, the market will rise (I personally know at least about 5 millionaires who refused to be in the market for the last 8 years simply because a democrat was the president). But then the "world is ending" democrats will start pulling out of the market and it will decline. I don't have a perfect crystal ball for that timing. But I think we'll see that decline start at the next fed meeting.

 

[Imp]

I'm wondering if it's a good time to start pulling a bit out of the stock market. I already took my savings out a few weeks ago and now I have been thinking about parking some of my retirement for a while. It won't matter much either way because I'm 30ish years away from retirement, but I have a feeling this upcoming administration is going to be an absolute disaster, along with everything else on the horizon.

Your guess is as good as mine, I've been wrong all of 2016. Started "great" then the election froze everything and now it's all hunky dory with Trump. "Analysts" saying stocks going higher, S&P to 2500 soon, 7 year bull market ahead, etc. But nothing's actually changed yet or will change soon aside from bond yields... You don't go on a borrowing binge for 8 years then make it magically go away, especially with higher rates.

Edit: And sweet. If this chart's accurate, the Shiller PE just broke the 2007 record. We're still a ways away from breaking the ones set back around 1930 and 1999 though.
http://www.gurufocus.com/shiller-PE.php

This chart's less interactive:
http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well, its official, took the plunge at $1290.00 (retail ask price one week ago) for 1oz 50 Gold Eagle:

 

[Imp]

Woot, DOW over 19000 and S&P 500 over 2200. Now at a 7.5 year bull run. What's actually changed since 3 weeks ago aside from "perception?" Nothing.

DRYS back down to $6.22.

 

[dullard]

Woot, DOW over 19000 and S&P 500 over 2200. Now at a 7.5 year bull run. What's actually changed since 3 weeks ago aside from "perception?" Nothing.

DRYS back down to $6.22.

The S&P 500 is up a whopping 0.73% in 3 months (without dividends). That isn't much of a change in the values and there wasn't much of a change in business profitability (yet).

Heck going back one year the S&P is only up 5.45% (Without dividends) and 7.78% (With dividends). That is about as typical of an increase as one can expect.

Nothing really changed (yet), and the stocks are behaving as if it were a typical year. Hmmm. How shocking!

 

[KB]

Woot, DOW over 19000 and S&P 500 over 2200. Now at a 7.5 year bull run. What's actually changed since 3 weeks ago aside from "perception?" Nothing.

DRYS back down to $6.22.

The election is over so the market has more clarity.
If Trump does what analysts think he will, we will see lower corporate taxes and a tax repatriation holiday.
Last time we got that in 2004 that market rose for another three years thanks to buybacks and dividend increases. I expect that market to rise further from here even if earnings dont grow, as long as we dont hit recession.

 

[Imp]

The election is over so the market has more clarity.
If Trump does what analysts think he will, we will see lower corporate taxes and a tax repatriation holiday.
Last time we got that in 2004 that market rose for another three years thanks to buybacks and dividend increases. I expect that market to rise further from here even if earnings dont grow, as long as we dont hit recession.

I know the official story. Lot of "ifs" and "mays."

Market stopped rising in 2007 then something fun happened in 2008/9 and sub 0.50% Fed rate for 7 (?) years straight. That's encouraging...