***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
2,284
5
81

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Yea this was the last straw for me. Gonna sell everything come tuesday. Do u guys think there'll be a small rally this week or is it just gonna keep going down as the oil keeps going down? Stock market has gone down in lockstep with drop of oil prices the past 2 weeks!

No one knows. If you're lucky, there will be a bounce like this past Thursday.

Bla bla bla, not investment advice, but selling into a down market is considered an amateur mistake.

This is the kind of correction I've been worried about since last year because of the Fed rate hike. Did the hike have anything to do with what's happening? Doesn't look like it... Looks more oil and China related, but I'll take it.
 

jpiniero

Lifer
Oct 1, 2010
14,835
5,452
136
Funny, mortgage rates actually went down this week and are now lower than before the hike.

It does feel like the correction to fair value could finally be happening.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Funny, mortgage rates actually went down this week and are now lower than before the hike.

It does feel like the correction to fair value could finally be happening.
Short rates have been going up and long rates going down. That might be a bad sign since one of the most reliable predictors of a recession is an inverted yield curve where short rates are higher than long.

We're not close to that point yet since the yield curve still has a positive slope. But if the trend continues, that wouldn't be good news.

 
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Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,429
3,533
126
Bla bla bla, not investment advice, but selling into a down market is considered an amateur mistake.

This is the kind of correction I've been worried about since last year because of the Fed rate hike. Did the hike have anything to do with what's happening? Doesn't look like it... Looks more oil and China related, but I'll take it.

Agreed - I'm in this for the long haul so dips like this are more representative of a buying opportunity. I keep cash around for just such an occasion. Its been a bigger drop faster than I thought so I'll hold onto the cash for a bit longer but I've got my eye on a few things
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Agreed - I'm in this for the long haul so dips like this are more representative of a buying opportunity. I keep cash around for just such an occasion. Its been a bigger drop faster than I thought so I'll hold onto the cash for a bit longer but I've got my eye on a few things

It really depends... If you're holding crap that you only picked up for short-term trading, it's different than holding a DOW or S&P500 index or even companies like J'n'J.

On another note, no recession since 2008, so it may be time for one
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Someone exercised my short call option and now I have to deliver $100,000 worth of QQQs on Tuesday.


I've been assigned before but nothing like this. I called the broker and they said I can cover the short position in the open market first thing Tuesday or exercise the call option to take delivery.

Now I get to worry the rest of weekend!

I wouldn't worry too much. If you look at QQQ they pushed it to $101 in AH on Friday to trigger the exercise. But since you are hedged, like you said in your other post, you have the option (pun intended) on Monday. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it - you are fully hedged.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
I wouldn't worry too much. If you look at QQQ they pushed it to $101 in AH on Friday to trigger the exercise. But since you are hedged, like you said in your other post, you have the option (pun intended) on Monday. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it - you are fully hedged.

Thanks. At the moment I have a 'rather large' margin call.
 
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brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,729
136
Guys you need to invest in india. Easy 8-20% returns

yeah, in rupees maybe. but the USD to INR exchange rate also matters and that has not been kind to the rupee over the last 10 years

not to mention that india's PE ratio is high compared to the other countries in BRIC
 

chetansha

Member
Sep 2, 2006
112
8
81
But you need to see from US $ side. Not from INR side. And speaking of BRIC. Surely selected stocks in nifty - sensex has given better returns
 

Exterous

Super Moderator
Jun 20, 2006
20,429
3,533
126
It really depends... If you're holding crap that you only picked up for short-term trading, it's different than holding a DOW or S&P500 index or even companies like J'n'J

Thats true. I don't tend to buy weak companies regardless of short term opportunities so I didn't think of it from that perspective
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
WTI and Brent currently below $29 -- WTI only slightly.

Is this the new normal with Brent being lower than WTI after U.S. allows oil exports?
 

poohbear

Platinum Member
Mar 11, 2003
2,284
5
81
No one knows. If you're lucky, there will be a bounce like this past Thursday.

Bla bla bla, not investment advice, but selling into a down market is considered an amateur mistake.

This is the kind of correction I've been worried about since last year because of the Fed rate hike. Did the hike have anything to do with what's happening? Doesn't look like it... Looks more oil and China related, but I'll take it.

I bought big name tech company stocks back in October. If the oil is gonna keep going down & stuff in China is gonna get even worse before it gets better, then it's best to sell now & get back in when the oil (& subsequent stock drops) reaches bottom. Current prices of $30 is not the bottom according to everything I've read. Hence the stock market hasn't bottomed out either.

Sell now & minimize my losses, & get back in when oil & stocks have bottomed out sounds like a sound strategy right now. I anticipate another 5%-10% drop atleast.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Everybody's taking it up the ass the past two years.

Relax and let the cyclical magic of history and the markets escalate you up by the time you reach retirement age.

Be careful what you wish for. Most investors today have never experienced a real secular bear market. The last secular bear was 1966-1982. During that period, the Dow Jones Industrial average went from 1000 in 1966 to..... 1000 in 1982. A big fat zero for 16 years. Adjusted for inflation, this was a massive loss for anyone invested in stocks. Stocks didnt make money. Bonds didnt make money. Mutual funds didnt make money. And the period 1966-1982 was not an aberration. There was a similar period from 1929 to 1945. 2016-2032 could very easily be similar. If this happens, then 80% of 401Ks will be worth less in 2032 than they are now (in 2032 dollars), including the money they add during that time.
 

brianmanahan

Lifer
Sep 2, 2006
24,300
5,729
136
Be careful what you wish for. Most investors today have never experienced a real secular bear market. The last secular bear was 1966-1982. During that period, the Dow Jones Industrial average went from 1000 in 1966 to..... 1000 in 1982. A big fat zero for 16 years. Adjusted for inflation, this was a massive loss for anyone invested in stocks. Stocks didnt make money. Bonds didnt make money. Mutual funds didnt make money. And the period 1966-1982 was not an aberration. There was a similar period from 1929 to 1945. 2016-2032 could very easily be similar. If this happens, then 80% of 401Ks will be worth less in 2032 than they are now (in 2032 dollars), including the money they add during that time.

well, 2000-2016 is certainly no bull market, and it's almost a secular bear if you started investing from the beginning.

the s&p500 is only %30 higher today than it was in early 2000 (though it's about %80 higher if you factor in dividends). so if we were to see a further drop of %30 this year, 2000-2016 would become almost identical in returns to 1966-1982. both of those happen to be 16 year periods.

that's not to say the next 16 years couldn't be bad too. 1952-1982 had a return rate of like %1.5, so it's happened before. and there's no reason why poor returns couldn't extend to 50 years or more.
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,328
68
91
Agreed - I'm in this for the long haul so dips like this are more representative of a buying opportunity.
I have never understood this logic.

You just lost 10% of your entire portfolio, yet you take this "opportunity" to buy .01% of your portfolio at a good price.

Its a small silver lining...
 

edro

Lifer
Apr 5, 2002
24,328
68
91
Be careful what you wish for. Most investors today have never experienced a real secular bear market. The last secular bear was 1966-1982. During that period, the Dow Jones Industrial average went from 1000 in 1966 to..... 1000 in 1982. A big fat zero for 16 years. Adjusted for inflation, this was a massive loss for anyone invested in stocks. Stocks didnt make money. Bonds didnt make money. Mutual funds didnt make money. And the period 1966-1982 was not an aberration. There was a similar period from 1929 to 1945. 2016-2032 could very easily be similar. If this happens, then 80% of 401Ks will be worth less in 2032 than they are now (in 2032 dollars), including the money they add during that time.
http://allfinancialmatters.com/2013/01/29/sp-500-20-year-rolling-period-returns-through-2012/
Here is a good chart for S&P500 over 20 years.
66-85 wasn't too terrible.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,208
3,622
126
I have never understood this logic.

You just lost 10% of your entire portfolio, yet you take this "opportunity" to buy .01% of your portfolio at a good price.

Its a small silver lining...
The portfolio will come back eventually, so it is just a paper loss. In all of history, the stock market has always come back eventually. The buying opportunity may not ever come back (this could be your last true chance for the biggest gains). We may got more buying opportunities, or this may be the lowest point the stock market will ever be for the rest of time, we don't know. Every local minimum has a chance of being the last time the stock market was ever that low again.

Plus, it reinforces the buy-and-hold strategy which in practice almost always beats out the "perfect crystal ball that tells me both (A) when to get out and (B) when to get back in" strategy.

Your numbers also are off. The median (which will vary depending on age and other factors) retirement account balance is about $100k. Right now, you have a new year where you can put in $5500 or $6500 depending on age). That means we've had a ~10% correction, but the chance to add ~6% more to our retirement account at a good price (not 0.01%).
 
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nk215

Senior member
Dec 4, 2008
403
2
81
The 20-year rolling chart does look bad for some period. Conservatively speaking, I wouldn't mind getting 2-3% inflation adjusted return for 20 years.

I'll be putting $$ into the S&P by the weekend.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
well, 2000-2016 is certainly no bull market, and it's almost a secular bear if you started investing from the beginning.

This is what I mean when I say that very few people invested today have experienced a real secular bear market. Take a look at this chart:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PTTRX&p=W&st=2000-06-24&en=200-06-24&id=p50806912590

Just about every single large bond fund has a similar chart. Even though stocks didnt do very well over the last 16 years, it was still a bull market. The key was bonds. With both stocks and bonds being in a bull market, the total return has been more impressive than the S&P500 returns would suggest. A real secular bear market for both bonds and stocks means that the vast majority of mutual funds will see an exact reversal of the chart above. Too many people think this can't or won't happen.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Be careful what you wish for. Most investors today have never experienced a real secular bear market. The last secular bear was 1966-1982. During that period, the Dow Jones Industrial average went from 1000 in 1966 to..... 1000 in 1982. A big fat zero for 16 years. Adjusted for inflation, this was a massive loss for anyone invested in stocks. Stocks didnt make money. Bonds didnt make money. Mutual funds didnt make money. And the period 1966-1982 was not an aberration.

The joy of the stock market... And also why I don't believe in buy and hold.

The somewhat good thing is that a portfolio reflecting the S&P500 at the time probably kept pushing out a 2+% dividend. The 60s and 70s were a period of insane inflation, if I recall correctly, though.

Edit: Answered my own question.
 
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