***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[OverVolt]

The hell you say... The world economy can't depend on China building empty cities and Canadians trading houses they can't afford...

You can paper over a balance sheet recession or banking recession but this would seem to be a commodity recession. Me personally I won't use more oil at any price. I get 36-40mpg and thats that.

I have most of the cheap Chinese shit I will ever need. Historically China does this over and over again. China overproduces to the point of saturation then collapses. Instead of spices this time its cheap plastic shit and electronics.

The great wall was even a giant do-nothing project just like their giant do-nothing cities. Everyone is panicking that China will take over the world economically but that ain't gonna happen.

 

[brianmanahan]

Everyone is panicking that China will take over the world economically but that ain't gonna happen.

just like with japan in the 80's

 

[FelixDeCat]

I need a small loan of a million dollars.

 

[Imp]

just like with japan in the 80's

What don't you like about a country with a demographic problem?

Did they also have deflation and/or a stagnant economy...?

Edit: Interdasting, looking up Japan and deflation, found out there was a depression around 1830. Add that with the one of 1930. And are we going to have one in 2030?

 

[Charmonium]

Not to mention every key economy went from knee-deep in debt before the massive waves of QEs to forehead-deep in debt now.

QE didn't created the debt. When the fed buys treasuries or MBSs, that debt has to already exist.

We are now in the phase where the fed will start to sell those assets. This takes cash out of the economy and tightens the money supply. This will mainly affect short to medium term interest rates and won't have much affect on long term rates.

The real problem is the flattening of the yield curve. That's the prelude to an inverted yield curve. But even if we don't get one of those, you still have the spread between long and short rates shrinking. That's where banks make most of their money - borrowing short and lending long. So the more that spread shrinks, the less incentive banks have to lend.

 

[StrangerGuy]

I have most of the cheap Chinese shit I will ever need. Historically China does this over and over again. China overproduces to the point of saturation then collapses. Instead of spices this time its cheap plastic shit and electronics.

Yup, look outside the hype and its not hard to see that consumer tech in general is already beyond a good enough level while being commoditized to death by now.

 

[brianmanahan]

Edit: Interdasting, looking up Japan and deflation, found out there was a depression around 1830. Add that with the one of 1930. And are we going to have one in 2030?

not to mention the price of the nikkei 225 trending down since 1990:

 

[Imp]

Yup, look outside the hype and its not hard to see that consumer tech in general is already beyond a good enough level while being commoditized to death by now.

But we were all going to be engineers designing the next iPhone...

 

[StrangerGuy]

But we were all going to be engineers designing the next iPhone...

Huh, I thought it's we put a touchscreen and internet connection into every home appliance and gadget possible, then everybody would be buying that shit up because that's all we really want all along and nothing will ever go wrong?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Google will have a big effect on the market this week either up or down. The volatility will be nice for out of the money QQQ options.

 

[Imp]

Waaaahhhh... Everything's down today. Oil appears to be back below $30. Lulz, WTI and Brent fell about 7% each.

 

[manlymatt83]

Crap, I bought SPXS calls this morning and didn't sell by the bell. I'm up a lot but whoops.

 

[Imp]

lololololol

Shanghai markets are currently 6.3% down. Goodbye circuit-breaker and the stopping trading thing. Index at about 2750. Well below the 3000 support point it loved for the past couple months.

 

[StrangerGuy]

lololololol

Shanghai markets are currently 6.3% down. Goodbye circuit-breaker and the stopping trading thing. Index at about 2750. Well below the 3000 support point it loved for the past couple months.

So much for the rally.

 

[nk215]

It's in the news that China may have been cooking its books for a while. The strength of its economy may have been overstated.

The stock may continue to go down while people try to figure out what's going on in China.

I am ready to put more $$ into the stock when S&P hit the 1500 range (which I don't think will happen). In the mean time, I continue with my current plan -- buy a little when the S&P is in the 1800 range.

 

[Imp]

So much for the rally.

Not quite. Big rally today. Based on what? You tell me.

It's in the news that China may have been cooking its books for a while. The strength of its economy may have been overstated.

The stock may continue to go down while people try to figure out what's going on in China.

Oh, come on... we all knew that already. If you didn't, the whole circuit-breaker during the June to August market crash thing should have been a clue.

 

[Udgnim]

Not quite. Big rally today. Based on what? You tell me.



Oh, come on... we all knew that already. If you didn't, the whole circuit-breaker during the June to August market crash thing should have been a clue.

market is ignoring China and moving with oil

 

[Imp]

market is ignoring China and moving with oil

Ah, yes. I heard that certain OPEC members were calling for a meeting. And there was hope that suppliers would reduce production.

A solid reason to rally, especially after EIA and API inventory numbers showed millions of barrels in crude and gasoline inventory build-up over the past few weeks.

 

[richardycc]

I heard the China issue could be stem from ezubo mess. I still don't fully understand the story, but ezubo is a A2P and P2P lending site that promised high ROI, 12% or higher. this is the part I am fuzzy about, some how the investors/depositors thought their money were super safe due to ezubo's parent company has some tie to the Chinese government? So a lot of people put all their money into their accounts, and a lot of people borrowed money to invest into the stock market because the market has been up up and up. The government raided the company for alleged illegal operations and the shut down the company last month. over 11billion USD are frozen. There are daily protests all over China to demand their money back. you can google ezubo for more details. I am surprised we don't hear about this story in the US mainstream media.

 

[Imp]

API numbers are out.

11 million barrel crude build.

Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah... but let's rally on "hopes" on oil. This is such a stupid bullshit game. Seriously.

 

[OverVolt]

Google will have a big effect on the market this week either up or down. The volatility will be nice for out of the money QQQ options.

Guess how many people who trade like this got lucky and made it big in the Forbes 500 richest.

None.



The more trading you do the more the HFT's are devouring you a penny at a time.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Guess how many people who trade like this got lucky and made it big in the Forbes 500 richest.

None.



The more trading you do the more the HFT's are devouring you a penny at a time.

Please dont confuse me with facts. My mind is already made up.

 

[Hugo Drax]

It's in the news that China may have been cooking its books for a while. The strength of its economy may have been overstated.

The stock may continue to go down while people try to figure out what's going on in China.

I am ready to put more $$ into the stock when S&P hit the 1500 range (which I don't think will happen). In the mean time, I continue with my current plan -- buy a little when the S&P is in the 1800 range.

Then sell the January 20, 2017 150 puts. for every 15,000 dollars to secure the purchase of 100 shares of SPY you get 510 dollars (minus 10.75 in commission)

Your yield on that cash if you never get put stock = 3.4% which is better than a 1 year CD for the year
and if you do get stock put to your account, you outperformed every hedge fund in america & the S&P 500 for the next 12 months.

 

[Imp]

Shanghai currently down over 2.5%.

Speaking of, why does the Shanghai index often go completely horizontal for like an hour during interday trading...

 

[dullard]

Shanghai currently down over 2.5%.

Speaking of, why does the Shanghai index often go completely horizontal for like an hour during interday trading...

It stops trading for lunch (11:30 to 13:00 local time).

I want to put a bit into Pacific shares to rebalance. But I'm sticking this out until things settle.