***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
What's the worst fat finger mistake you've made? I've been trading NUGT, bought back in and then I had to pick up someone from the airport, check the traffic and checked the flight status time. Limit order to sell NUGT at 110, but put in 100. Course it instantly filled at the market price.

I bought a large amount of stock using the WRONG account that had no money. My broker allowed it for some reason despite the fact that it wasn't a margin account -- ended up having to transfer money over from an external bank account.
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
So true. Just to add to that, where is the cheap money to do the buybacks coming from? Take a guess guys. Yup, the fed's QE programs.

Don't get me wrong. These were essential to help the economy recover. But a true recovery requires both a monetary and fiscal response. And because of the gridlock in congress, including the ongoing sequestration that went into effect a couple of years ago, fiscal response has been none existent.

So the fed has been doing what it can from the monetary side. But as we've seen, and continue to see in Japan, it's no where near enough.

Just for the hell of it. I went to WIKI's list of the S & P 500.
The first one on the list is 3M.
2015 EPS $7.58
2014 EPS $7.49

They bought back 3.7% of shares in 2015.
For 2015 $0.28 EPS increase was the result of buybacks.
So earnings are down by $0.19 per share and EPS increased by $0.09 per share.
And they only added $2,035,000,000 in long term debt.

I am not going to check all of them. I checked several over a year ago. The ones that I checked that had a buyback plan a lot of them were similar.

.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
They bought back 3.7% of shares in 2015.
For 2015 $0.28 EPS increase was the result of buybacks.
So earnings are down by $0.19 per share and EPS increased by $0.09 per share.
And they only added $2,035,000,000 in long term debt.
.

Whaaaa... you no likey da manipulation?

Word is that servicing those bonds will likely cause major problems eventually -- same with bonds maturing and having to reissue at higher yields to pay current ones back.

Who cares, right? CEO/executives are only assessed and reward on short-term info. Some even get huge bonuses after running companies into the ground.
 

Kwatt

Golden Member
Jan 3, 2000
1,602
12
81
Whaaaa... you no likey da manipulation?

I do want to be aware of it.

Word is that servicing those bonds will likely cause major problems eventually -- same with bonds maturing and having to reissue at higher yields to pay current ones back.

Servicing those bonds at negative rates should not be a problem should it? I mean its a good deal if you can get it and you don't have to suffer any consequences...

And negative rates are coming and I have the proof!

EDIT
Change This: And negative rates are coming and I have the proof!
To this: And negative rates are coming and I have proof to my satisfaction.

.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Aw, look, Canada's GDP fell 0.1% in February. But I had to dig the article out of a bundle of headlines unlike last month when it supposedly went up 0.6% and it was front-page news.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-gdp-economy-february-1.3558692


This is a very interesting article from the EIA about oil/gas well costs between 2006 to 2015 -- no data past that. Oil/gas didn't really start tanking until 2015. I've heard of huge layoffs, salary reductions, cutbacks everywhere, and auctions for tons of drilling equipment since then. How much more did they drop?

Break even costs for shale are all over the road, I've heard, from $30 to $80. But I have no idea when those estimates were made... Take 20% off $80 and it's $64, take 30% off and it's $56. With $70, that's $56 and $49. WTI is now $46...

Upstream costs in 2015 were 25% to 30% below their 2012 levels, when per-well costs were at their highest point over the past decade. Changes in technology have affected drilling efficiency and completion, supporting higher productivity per well and lowering costs, while shifts towards deeper and longer lateral wells with more complex completions have tended to increase costs.

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25592

And DXY is down to 93.08 now. It started the week at 95.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^Do the 3x oil ETF.

In other news, while the polls suggest the Brexit is split 50-50, I'm not so sure anymore after reading the h8t3rs online. Pro-Brexit people appear to be very passionate, but polling the interwebs isn't the most accurate...

If it happens, it could be game over -- no, not the end of the world, but a big reorganization like a "standard" global recession.

Edit: Canada's doing really good, like +40k jobs and +0.6% GDP in a month, currency up more than 15% good. We don't have no stinking debt problem with a debt-income ratio of 1.65.

The number of consumer insolvencies in the country jumped by 9.7 per cent over the past year, according to data from the Office of the Superintendent of Bankruptcy (OSB).

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2016/04/29/consumer-insolvencies-bankruptcy-canada_n_9807152.html
 
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holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
Ill just put this right here.....



Over 5X in about 100 days.

Trust me I followed this from the 80's, really should just hold it but it's not exactly a dividend paying stock so I buy and sell it for a profit. I would have made a killing just holding it.

FYI I also bought USLV because it follows NUGT pretty closely but will a little less volatility.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
This is a very interesting article from the EIA about oil/gas well costs between 2006 to 2015 -- no data past that. Oil/gas didn't really start tanking until 2015. I've heard of huge layoffs, salary reductions, cutbacks everywhere, and auctions for tons of drilling equipment since then. How much more did they drop?

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=25592

And now some info on Canada's production costs... Big list at the bottom of the article. Some companies actually went up, but it looks like a shit ton of them can make money at $50/barrel. Unfortunately, some may be selling at WCS and not WTI.

http://business.financialpost.com/n...ilpatchs-great-war-on-costs?__lsa=5a2d-64b0#1
 

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
3,664
111
106
so Venezuela is going to collapse

predictions on how oil will react?

I believe Venezuela imported WTI to mix with its heavier crude
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
so Venezuela is going to collapse

predictions on how oil will react?

I believe Venezuela imported WTI to mix with its heavier crude
How the mighty have fallen. That's going to be Saudi Arabia and the entire middle east in about 20 years.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Production is a smidge under 3 million barrels/day in Venezuela.

http://graphics.wsj.com/lists/opec-meeting

I'm guessing there could be a supply disruption but doubt it'd last too long. Even Iraq was pumping through most of the war -- quick google suggests there was a couple month blip down near zero during the initial invasion.

Regardless, oil probably going to skyrocket to $60 range. This is hilariously sad... The scenario that all the experts painted early last year is now here: prices go up, shale and other producers restart production, glut keeps going longer.


Edit: So, what's up for Monday...
- Puerto Rico defaulting
- Japan stock market fell 500 points, lost 600 last Thursday before holiday.
- Venezuela is collapsing
- Italian banks in trouble

...House prices went up in Australia though.
 
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ghost recon88

Diamond Member
Oct 2, 2005
6,209
1
81
Debating if I move into the money market after today, I'm not sure the S&p 500 can support more than the 2080-2100 it's at now. Seems like history has shown it reaches this point then caves a bit. I'd rather get in the money market now and buy back in when it's low.
 

holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
Is the jump in oil and gold is largely attributed to the fall in the dollar? I still don't get why oil has had such a rally or even why gold has jumped so much in the last 2 weeks.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Uh oh, the China Caixin PMI -- this one's supposedly more believable -- went down further into contraction from March.

Guess that trillion dollars in credit didn't do much except re-inflate their housing bubble?

What a shock...
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Is the jump in oil and gold is largely attributed to the fall in the dollar? I still don't get why oil has had such a rally or even why gold has jumped so much in the last 2 weeks.

Speculators gonna speculate. Nothing more, nothing less. Happens every year.

Also, sell in May and take a holiday. :sneaky:
 

Miramonti

Lifer
Aug 26, 2000
28,651
100
91
Easier said in hindsight, but the oil rally looks nothing different than a bounce from an entity that's gotten crushed in the last 6 months, muchless 1-2 years.



However if explanations are easy and reliable, then so should predictions, but my only one would only be that $30 oil is not going to happen again.
 

holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
I use google finance on my phone (request desktop site), what's the easiest way to find the spot or US Dollar index. On marketwatch and bloomberg DXY shows me the index or spot price for USD but nothing comes up on google finance. Thanks
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,211
3,622
126
Ill just put this right here.....



Over 5X in about 100 days.
Then down 15% in about 1.5 days.

How much is it down in ~4 years? Google finance says from 210000 to 102.90 right now (a 99.94% loss) but Yahoo finance says it only dropped from 21000 (a 99.4% loss). Either way leveraged gold has been a generally terrible play in the last 4 years.

I'm in the triple shorting silver stock myself (DSLV). I've had ups and downs on paper but I've never sold for anything less than a 25% gain and usually closer to 100% gains.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Dafuq happened today? Premarket, DXY was way down, then it steadily trended up to close a full 1%-ish higher. And everything tanked, so not just the USD going up.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Something to watch for... There is a huge wildfire in Fort McMurray, Alberta right now that's already entered the town, and the entire community is under mandatory evacuation.

This is important because during the oil boom, this was one of the most expensive communities in all of Canada. Insurance losses could be humungulous -- assuming there's coverage. Add up the losses from energy-sector loans and this could hit Canadian banks/insurers.

...sales in November with the average sale price plunging by 19.1 per cent to $519,193, which is down from $642,003 in November 2014.

http://calgaryherald.com/business/r...clines-to-lead-country-for-two-straight-years

And there are supposedly a lot of tar sands operations in the area. The big ones are a fair distance away, but word is there are SAGD (Steam Assisted something-something) wells in the area.
 

sm625

Diamond Member
May 6, 2011
8,172
137
106
Then down 15% in about 1.5 days.

How much is it down in ~4 years? Google finance says from 210000 to 102.90 right now (a 99.94% loss) but Yahoo finance says it only dropped from 21000 (a 99.4% loss). Either way leveraged gold has been a generally terrible play in the last 4 years.

It is true that 3X leveraged ETFs are trash if you hold them for more than the length of a single rally. But do keep in mind that NUGT is not a leveraged gold instrument. It is a leveraged metals miner instrument. It tracks GDX not gold itself. GDX has rallied far more than gold has, that is why you're seeing NUGT move even more than 3X vs the price of gold.
 
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