***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Also could not resist buying Chesapeake calls yesterday, I hope it pays off.

Sold for a quick, lousy buck. I feel so dirty now.

 

[Imp]

Boo ya, WTI (July) is now over $51. Come on $55. Who gives a shit that supplies usually draw down during the driving season and that Iraq, Iran, and the Saudis are pumping like crazy. If we can stay above $50, they'll restart a bunch of shale operations -- the rig count went up last Friday. And once the temporary outages in Nigeria and Alberta return, market gets flooded with reduced storage capacity and oil has a fun July/August -- just like last summer.

Edit: lulz, U.S. crude production went up in today's EIA report too. First time in weeks or even months, IIRC -- same with rig count.

There's a video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/07/oil-hovers-near-8-month-highs-on-us-inventory-draw.html

 

[Charmonium]

The prediction I heard today is that current market prices for stocks imply and end to the recent profit recession and a rebound in corporate earnings. If that's really the case, demand for oil should rise. It should also mean a stronger dollar even in the absence of a fed rate hike, especially in light of the fact that the ECB is going to be buying $500B in corporate bonds BBB- and above and will hold them even they fall below investment grade.

 

[Imp]

So, who do I believe exactly? Both articles published/updated on June 8.

Oil imports by China, the world’s biggest consumer after the U.S., fell to a four-month low as congestion at one of its biggest ports curbed purchases from independent refiners.

Auto video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...fall-as-congestion-curbs-refiner-crude-access

Prices were also supported by data showing China's crude oil imports in May hit their highest in more than six years.

More video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/07/oil-hovers-near-8-month-highs-on-us-inventory-draw.html

 

[FelixDeCat]

I was never really a follower of the price of oil other than watching the massive shifts over time. But now Im starting to think what caused the downdraft from $50 to $25 in the first place is OIL HEDGES that were taken out late last year due to the dramatic drop on oversupply concerns.

Everyone oil/gas/fracker company that was over levered (which was most) ran out to hedge 2016 prices around $45 a barrel. They were smiling all the way to the bank for a while.

Now we are above the average $45 hedge price and lots of shorts are being covered.

 

[rcpratt]

Cashing out on my natural gas (BOIL) position after today's jump (and I need some cash). Up 31% over my 2 month trade...most of it in the past week.

 

[Imp]

Slow day today... Taking a break before oil goes to $60 and S&P 500 hits 2500, obviously.

Edit: In other great news, Jones New York is insolvent in Canada.

A year after seemingly being saved, womenswear retailer Jones New York says it now plans to close all 37 of its stores across Canada and seek creditor protection.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jones-new-york-canada-1.3624043

 

[FelixDeCat]

Slow day today... Taking a break before oil goes to $60

Taking a break back to $43. :sneaky:

Silver $17.25 going to $18.

 

[Imp]

Note to self to look at this chart on a regular basis: Change in Labor Market Conditions Index. Not as good as that delinquencies chart but pretty good.

https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FRBLMCI

 

[Hacp]

I was never really a follower of the price of oil other than watching the massive shifts over time. But now Im starting to think what caused the downdraft from $50 to $25 in the first place is OIL HEDGES that were taken out late last year due to the dramatic drop on oversupply concerns.

Everyone oil/gas/fracker company that was over levered (which was most) ran out to hedge 2016 prices around $45 a barrel. They were smiling all the way to the bank for a while.

Now we are above the average $45 hedge price and lots of shorts are being covered.

I would think airlines and others would want to hedge oil prices right now so there are definitely happy buys and sellers.

 

[holden j caufield]

how does brexit events affect the US dollar and gold?

 

[FelixDeCat]

how does brexit events affect the US dollar and gold?

I would think it would mean buy silver over gold on uncertainty in the Euro. Also oil goes to $43 on an overbought condition.

My only position right now is accumulated shares in MORL UBS ETN 2X REIT note payable at 20% per annum (currently).

I've taken a "break" from speculating and will simply collect interest in the meantime. I will also take wild verbal shots at commodity and stock prices I have no position in.

Go Silver!

 

[Charmonium]

$70 oil by 2017 - http://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...m-why-i-predict-70-oil-by-the-end-of-the-year

This guy made a prediction of $60 back in January and everyone thought he was stoned.

 

[Artdeco]

Bought and sold a ton of stamps.com options this week, bought everything back today, and them sold options that expired a couple of minutes ago, made another $880

It was a good week.

 

[Imp]

how does brexit events affect the US dollar and gold?

Have you watched Quantum of Solace?

There's a line in the movie about someone wanting to be paid in Euros because the dollar (U.S.) isn't what it used to be...

lolololololololololololololol

I think the Euro, years ago before Ireland and Greece and Spain and Italy and Portugal -- okay, everyone except Germany -- started having financial problems, it was looking like a potential reserve currency replacement for the U.S. Dollar. If the UK leaves, the EU looks a lot less stable and people will probably start running to the old, somewhat reliable safe havens that are American currency and/or gold.

Seriously, look up the housing crises in Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece, and maybe even Italy. Then look up youth unemployment throughout the EU. Then look at their central bank rates. That shit is a mess waiting to hit the fan.

Edit: lulz.

Rig count went up for second week in a row. Looks like ~$47 is the magic number for WTI.

And in even more interesting news...

The data in London newspaper The Independent showed that 55 percent believe Britain should leave the EU, versus 45 percent who favored staying.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/10/new-brexit-poll-shows-brits-leaning-toward-leaving-hits-markets.html

 

[Charmonium]

Do we really care about Britain leaving the EU? They kept their own currency anyway so the effects should be local. How would it affect the US economy or the Fed's decisions on rates? Not at all AFAICT

 

[FelixDeCat]

Do we really care about Britain leaving the EU? They kept their own currency anyway so the effects should be local. How would it affect the US economy or the Fed's decisions on rates? Not at all AFAICT

Will other countries follow Britain's lead if it leaves? Will there be a run on banks as people flee the Euro? What about Greece? Will Germany be the only country left to subsidize all the deficits?

Make no mistake - if the UK leaves, Germany will follow and all hell will break loose. D:

 

[Imp]

Germany is, essentially, the Euro and the main benefactor of the whole thing. I don't see them asking to leave -- if they do, it's instant game over whereas they still have a chance with the UK gone. No other major player seems to be doing well. Go look up Deutsche Bank's stock price over the past year. And this is Italy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/battle-prop-up-italy-banks-eu-brexit-grexit-bad-loans

Despite the fact that the UK has their own currency, I've been reading up on the topic and it sounds like they're pretty integrated into the EU in terms of laws, treaties, etc.

 

[Charmonium]

Germany is, essentially, the Euro and the main benefactor of the whole thing. I don't see them asking to leave -- if they do, it's instant game over whereas they still have a chance with the UK gone. No other major player seems to be doing well. Go look up Deutsche Bank's stock price over the past year. And this is Italy:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/10/battle-prop-up-italy-banks-eu-brexit-grexit-bad-loans

Despite the fact that the UK has their own currency, I've been reading up on the topic and it sounds like they're pretty integrated into the EU in terms of laws, treaties, etc.

yeah, but that's the problem isn't it? Integration. Brits like their arcane rules and customs. And they're way to independent minded to take very much direction from outside the UK.

Unless someone can make a specific argument to the contrary, I don't see any issues with Britain leaving. Not for the US anyway. I'm sure there will be some impact on the EU but I couldn't even begin to quantify what that might be or even identify the potential issues.

They'll lose the open boarders and free trade but i think a lot of brits would welcomee that.

 

[FelixDeCat]

This should not be downplayed at all. We could be talking about the beginning of the end of European Union.

 

[Imp]

Unless someone can make a specific argument to the contrary, I don't see any issues with Britain leaving. Not for the US anyway. I'm sure there will be some impact on the EU but I couldn't even begin to quantify what that might be or even identify the potential issues.

They'll lose the open boarders and free trade but i think a lot of brits would welcomee that.

Keep in mind that I'm not well read on the Brexit stuff and don't live there...

But from what I've read, a vote for Leave would cause EU businesses to leave London, trade deals gone, more difficult travel, less EU subsidies, housing crash, and fewer jobs. So, money.

Leavers do appear to acknowledge uncontrolled immigration due to open-borders -- mainly between developed and developing countries -- and self-determination as big issues. Then there's the allegedly onerous EU laws in general, EU trade laws negatively affecting industries, and having unelected bureaucrats in Brussels overriding elected UK politicians. There also appears to be a big "fuck you" to the establishment aspect as well.

It's being framed as a left-wing (Remain) and right-wing (Leave) issue.

As for the US being affected... Brexit essentially means half the Western world and some of the world's largest economies may suddenly need to be reorganized. Lot of uncertainty + fragile world economy = crashy crashy. Regardless, what kind of healthy "union" has insane levels of youth unemployment, bank crises in multiple countries, and negative interest rates?

 

[Charmonium]

Thanks for that overview. That was very helpful.

I didn't realize that UK got any subsidies from the EU. I would have thought it would be the other way around. But then that too would be a reason for leaving.

I have to say I have some sympathy for the 'leavers.' It would be like the UN dictating US policy. Even fairly liberal people llike moi would probably not be in favor of that.

I'm not sure the EU ever really made any sense. The cultures are too diverse to have a common government. Even comparing it to the US and say the difference between New Jersey and Oklahoma, we still have a lot more in common than there are differences. There's a shared culture and history there than counts for a lot even if we can't agree on things like Obamacare and abortion.

Plus the EU tried to create an economic union w/o any fiscal teeth. Unless you have some central control over spending and budgeting, you're always going to have the richer states paying for the poorer ones. Imagine for example that we had to subsidize the Mexican economy. Trump would be talking about building a wall to the moon.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh and we have two bad choices for president. Either extremist may find it hard to govern. All those Trump protestors protesting and Hillary haters hating for the next four years.

Normally there is rally when a Republican wins and a selloff when a Democrat wins. Either is brief. But who knows what is going to happen. Im expecting chaos in the market for the short term.

 

[Artdeco]

Oh and we have two bad choices for president. Either extremist may find it hard to govern. All those Trump protestors protesting and Hillary haters hating for the next four years.

Normally there is rally when a Republican wins and a selloff when a Democrat wins. Either is brief. But who knows what is going to happen. Im expecting chaos in the market for the short term.

Nope, Wall Street likes a deadlocked government, means no rule changes to hurt them, either candidate will be a corporate friend.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nope, Wall Street likes a deadlocked government, means no rule changes to hurt them, either candidate will be a corporate friend.

A deadlocked government is one possible outcome AFTER the election. But there is one thing the market does every single moment that it is open - handicap the future.

As either candidate appears closer to victory the market will react accordingly. And being that the two choices appear to be extreme in their views that is where I think the outsized volatility will come from.

No matter what happens, win or lose, Obama WILL pardon Hillary over the deleted email investigation on January 17, 2017. And the Trump U trial will continue to drag on past the election.