***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I didn't realize that UK got any subsidies from the EU. I would have thought it would be the other way around. But then that too would be a reason for leaving.

I'm not sure the EU ever really made any sense. The cultures are too diverse to have a common government. Even comparing it to the US and say the difference between New Jersey and Oklahoma, we still have a lot more in common than there are differences. There's a shared culture and history there than counts for a lot even if we can't agree on things like Obamacare and abortion.

Plus the EU tried to create an economic union w/o any fiscal teeth. Unless you have some central control over spending and budgeting, you're always going to have the richer states paying for the poorer ones. Imagine for example that we had to subsidize the Mexican economy. Trump would be talking about building a wall to the moon.

Regarding subsidies... I don't know. According to some Remainers, the UK gets more than it gives. According to some Leavers, the UK gets less. I've also heard that the UK does get less, but Remainers don't trust the current Tory (right-wing?) government in the UK to allocate money to the same areas if they were to leave the EU.

There's also a suspicion that the ultimate goal of the EU is to make a United States of Europe with a central army. But you're right, how do you integrate so many countries with such different cultures, so many languages, and huge wealth disparity -- not to mention a couple thousand years of war in its history. 'Muricah has a lot going for it despite its disagreements.

And if I understand the open-borders thing right, it's essentially the same as the United States opening the border with Mexico for travel and jobs. In the UK, it looks like former Soviet Bloc countries take the place of Mexico.

The Remain side also has some weird arguments in my opinion. I've heard that the EU is the only thing preventing another European war. No, that's NATO, World War II that brought everyone west of the Berlin wall closer, and America. Then something about anti-immigration. Seems more about picking and choosing who immigrates versus some people in Brussels telling you who you need to take.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Damn... NIKKEI and Shanghai indices sold off over 3% each. No new lows set though. Still trading within the same range as the past year.

Rally by Thursday when there's no Fed hike...
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136

JTsyo

Lifer
Nov 18, 2007
11,771
919
126
Damn... NIKKEI and Shanghai indices sold off over 3% each. No new lows set though. Still trading within the same range as the past year.

Rally by Thursday when there's no Fed hike...

Check out VIX over the last 3 days. Today it was up 24%. Things are getting shaky as we approach Thursday.
 

holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
wow I made a decent profit on the TVIX ( warning don't trade this, it's super volatile and only after huge moves Fri and today was I able to turn a profit, was down a good amount on it last thursday, since I bought it 2.6 and 2.7 range a few weeks ago). Also if I sell something, buy it right away as it's going to sky rocket, doh!

Status Filled at $2.98
Symbol TVIX
Description CREDIT SUISSE AG NASSAU BRH VELSHS DLY SHTRM
Action Sell
Quantity xxxx Shares
Route FDLM
Order Type Limit at $2.98

Status Filled at $3.19
Symbol TVIX
Description CREDIT SUISSE AG NASSAU BRH VELSHS DLY SHTRM
Action Sell
Quantity xxxx Shares
Route FDLM
Order Type Limit at $3.19

10 min after my first one order filled it jumped, I then sold my 2nd order and then shortly after I see it went up .30, it'll probably go up again tomorrow.

oh I also bought LNKD after it dropped $100 in Feb, and sold way too soon. Saw the news today and was like Arggghh

was going to buy more on Wed at 2.12 but there is only so much you can average down before you feel it.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
So, um, the German 10-year Bund is trading at 0.003% right now after bouncing off 0.000%.

There's a video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/14/brex...nd-eu-vote-causing-volatility-in-markets.html

It's funny because I've been reading comments about British people saying they're going to move to another country if Brexit wins because the UK will be in a recession. Maybe Portugal, maybe the U.S., maybe Spain. Because all these other countries have amazing economies -- even if Brexit fails?

And Shanghai miraculously went up while the NIKKEI and Hong Kong indices went down -1.0% and -0.5%, respectively.
 
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Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
Spain is a major UK tourist destination because of the climate and because it's so cheap. The same is probably true of Portugal. A lot people vacation and retire there.

If you have a pension or other retirement income, you're probably better off in a country like Spain.

The US is also a major tourist destination but moving here legally could be a bit of a problem since you would eventually need to get a green card.
 

Hacp

Lifer
Jun 8, 2005
13,923
2
81
So, um, the German 10-year Bund is trading at 0.003% right now after bouncing off 0.000%.

There's a video...
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/14/brex...nd-eu-vote-causing-volatility-in-markets.html

It's funny because I've been reading comments about British people saying they're going to move to another country if Brexit wins because the UK will be in a recession. Maybe Portugal, maybe the U.S., maybe Spain. Because all these other countries have amazing economies -- even if Brexit fails?

And Shanghai miraculously went up while the NIKKEI and Hong Kong indices went down -1.0% and -0.5%, respectively.

Probably from currency differences.
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Oops..guess you should have sold before Brexit. Also, oil $51 to $43.

Sell the rumor, buy the news.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^Don't worry, IEA said that oil will balance out globally by the second half of 2016. Something something asterisk Nigeria and Libya. It may have also have been based on May 2016 data that involved a chunk of Alberta's oil sands being shutdown. And they probably didn't have U.S. EIA data showing production increasing last week or the rig count going up two weeks in a row after months of dropping. But hey, it's the IEA, so they must know what they're talking about..............................

Rate hike announcement tomorrow. Yaaaa.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Woohoo, time to celebrate! Canada's debt to income ratio went down!!! BBQ!

Statistics Canada said Tuesday the debt-to-disposable income ratio was 165.3 per cent for the first three months of 2016, down from 165.4 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year.

"Don't let the improvement fool you though, as the ratio usually falls in the first quarter," BMO economist Benjamin Reitzes said after the numbers came out, adding the decline was the smallest in seven years.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/statistics-canada-debt-income-financial-1.3634166
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
The FED has played up the second, measly .50% increase since last Christmas! Now its the middle of summer and still haven't hiked rates again. The last one took NINE YEARS to happen (2006-2015).

Furthermore, the secondary rate markets (bonds) have said we wont have one because of the aberrant jobs reading a while back. Also with the uncertainty over Brexit and who will follow, it might be a chaotic environment for currencies and rates.

I decided to dump everything as nothing appears 'safe' at the moment.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^What? You don't want to invest in gold that has a historic price around US$ 400, adjusted for inflation?

The Fed rate is actually closer to 0.38% thanks to their range thing -- it's at 0.25% to 0.50% now. What a great economy...
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
^What? You don't want to invest in gold that has a historic price around US$ 400, adjusted for inflation?

The Fed rate is actually closer to 0.38% thanks to their range thing -- it's at 0.25% to 0.50% now. What a great economy...


Commodities are worth what the market says they are worth. Nothing more, nothing less. Gold could be 400 an ounce or 10,000 an ounce. Just human speculating. Play the game or stay away.


Did you know that it doesn't matter what the Brexit vote is? The final decision to leave is up to Parliament and they are under no obligation to observe the result of what is called an advisory vote.

http://www.businessinsider.com/green-eu-referendum-not-legally-binding-brexit-2016-6


That may be true, but my intuition tells me to sell and avoid for the moment. I must admit Im very tempted to buy puts on the QQQs but I don't know if we go up or down near term. So I don't want to lose money either way. My official position is "wait and see" in cash and a pound of Silver Eagles.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Commodities are worth what the market says they are worth. Nothing more, nothing less. Gold could be 400 an ounce or 10,000 an ounce. Just human speculating. Play the game or stay away.

Yep... Reversion to the mean is fun though. Like with oil and houses, and somewhat gold from $1900/oz. a years back.


And in widely expected news, Fed rate no hikey. And woohoo, more and more signs pointing to one and done!

Amid worries about slowing job growth, Federal Reserve officials remain only tentatively committed to two more rate hikes this year, and provided indications Wednesday that there might be only one.

Video in link:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/15/fed-leaves-rates-unchanged-in-june-meeting.html
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
I was disappointed with the Fed bowing to pressure from the market. The time for normalization is now, not nine more years from now. The Fed needs ammo for the future.

The Federal Reserve's job is to give ... and then to take. The take part has long been overdue. Now we have another housing bubble in Texas and many other American states and the Fed still does not act.

Why Janet, why?!
 

holden j caufield

Diamond Member
Dec 30, 1999
6,324
10
81
I was disappointed with the Fed bowing to pressure from the market. The time for normalization is now, not nine more years from now. The Fed needs ammo for the future.

The Federal Reserve's job is to give ... and then to take. The take part has long been overdue. Now we have another housing bubble in Texas and many other American states and the Fed still does not act.

Why Janet, why?!

I agree they need to move along this thing. I'm not sure what else they are waiting for, it's never going to be perfect. But gold and silver did a nice bump with the dollar dropping. Thinking about a quick in and out of under armour right before they win the NBA finals? I'm sure every newb like myself has thought of it and it's priced in.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
Fed's doing their job perfectly: propping up the market and various bubbles created from almost a decade of ZIRP. Saw an article saying that 10-year treasuries may hit negative yields like European and Japanese bonds.

Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa... Go cheap money! Average price of a home in Canada is now ~CA$ 505k, yaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
 
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