***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

Looked up the individual regions of England and their populations. Looks like the population for the Region of London is 8.2-ish million.

Regardless, reran the numbers with the very recent vote splits. If they hold, it should be a win for Leave, assuming voter turnout is the same proportion everywhere and the distributions match population proportions.

At essentially 50/50, I doubt they'll do shit. But could this be enough to send the markets to hell?

Edit:

P.S. This might also pop the housing bubble in England, maybe the rest of the UK, but probably mainly England and Wales.

 

[jingramm]

My retirement funds are going to take a huge hit. Anyone derisk your retirement accounts by moving to cash or anything beforehand?

 

[FelixDeCat]

OIL -6.5% 46.95

GOLD +8.00% $1350, Silver $18.22

....futures worsening....

DOW down nearly -700 points

 

[FelixDeCat]

My retirement funds are going to take a huge hit. Anyone derisk your retirement accounts by moving to cash or anything beforehand?

Im all cash, baby. My intuition said to wait this one out early this week.

(I do have physical silver though)

 

[senseamp]

USD just dipped under 100 Yen briefly before bouncing up a bit. That is perceived as a red line for the BOJ.

 

[holden j caufield]

holy crap premarket is down 609 points. Is this for real.

Remember a few weeks ago I mentioned TVIX which is the volatility ETF I have a ton of shares for it like xx,xxx . Any advice?

I also bought NUGT any advice on that?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I also bought NUGT any advice on that?

You just won the lottery. ()

Right now gold is 8%, assuming miners match =

8% x 3 = 24% at least NUGT $120-$130 (my guess), last trade $96.

 

[senseamp]

NUGT should do well. Gold (miner revenue) Up, Oil and emerging market currencies (miner cost) Down = profit up.

 

[jingramm]

holy crap premarket is down 609 points. Is this for real.

Remember a few weeks ago I mentioned TVIX which is the volatility ETF I have a ton of shares for it like xx,xxx . Any advice?

I also bought NUGT any advice on that?

It should stabilize a bit by tomorrow morning as everyone digests this before the US market opens. Still expecting quite a drop but not 400+ points in my opinion.

 

[Imp]

My retirement funds are going to take a huge hit. Anyone derisk your retirement accounts by moving to cash or anything beforehand?

Yep. Did what this dude below did... except 99% cash instead of 1%, and it's 99% USD, not CAD which I get taxed in -- so if CAD tanks, and it will, I get twice the fun if the S&P 500 also goes. No metals though, couldn't get over the idea of being murdered for what's under my bed. I went out, all cash, over a year ago though.

Im all cash, baby. My intuition said to wait this one out early this week.

(I do have physical silver though)

Seriously, if Brexit does win, fuck you, S&P 500, you do not reflect the U.S. economy or the global economy. And fuck you, oil. Ya, let's rally on a massive global oversupply and a stalling global economy. Fucking rigged pieces of shit.

Good luck to Britain. Love that place. Will probably be pain in the near future, but should be better days ahead -- or you can hope your government stays and maybe you'll become Italy or Spain.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Yep. Did what this dude below did... except 99% cash instead of 1%, and it's 99% USD, not CAD which I get taxed in -- so if CAD tanks, and it will, I get twice the fun if the S&P 500 also goes. No metals though, couldn't get over the idea of being murdered for what's under my bed. I went out, all cash, over a year ago though.

Seriously, if Brexit does win, fuck you, S&P 500, you do not reflect the U.S. economy or the global economy. And fuck you, oil. Ya, let's rally on a massive global oversupply and a stalling global economy. Fucking rigged pieces of shit.

Good luck to Britain. Love that place. Will probably be pain in the near future, but should be better days ahead -- or you can hope your government stays and maybe you'll become Italy or Spain.

Chill bro. We have been through FAR WORSE than Brexit. In 46.5 years I think the worst was the daily +1000 / -1000 moves in the DOW of 2008 on a worldwide credit liquidity crises.

Thing is, we get complacent after 6 years of bucolic markets. And the next time something like this comes around, get neutral before hand and pick up the pieces on Monday. :sneaky:

Just sit on those hands.

 

[Imp]

Chill bro. We have been through FAR WORSE than Brexit. In 46.5 years I think the worst was the daily +1000 / -1000 moves in the DOW of 2008 on a worldwide credit liquidity crises.

Thing is, we get complacent after 6 years of bucolic markets. And the next time something like this comes around, get neutral before hand and pick up the pieces on Monday. :sneaky:

Brexit isn't a big deal, they'll work things out -- god forbid people need travel visas, tariffs, and immigration screenings. But it may be enough to prick the humungulous asset bubble worldwide.

I'm not worried about stocks. I'm waiting to buy in during the big correction -- if they can recover from the Great Depression, they can recover from anything short of a nuclear holocaust.

It just pisses me off that the fundamentals in certain markets have been screaming "I am fucked" for so long and the "market" doesn't care -- mainly talking about the housing bubble in Canada that has affected my life very negatively over the past 5+ years.

 

[Imp]

Telegraph page is currently 51.8/48.3 in favor of Leave with 93.7% reported.

Region of London is 72.7% reported, but Region of North West is only 55.6% -- important cause London supposedly has 8.2 million people, North West has 7.1 million. Most other regions in England are 85% or less reported.

Game over once London is 80% or up reported.

Edit: Good luck to Germany, Sweden, Luxembourg, Norway, Switzerland, and Austria -- some of the highest House Price-to-Rent ratios according to the IMF.

http://www.imf.org/external/research/housing/

 

[holden j caufield]

even the 1000 point crash last fall I never saw a -700 premarket.

 

[Udgnim]

hoping the market has a prolonged overreaction to this because I want to buy some stuff at a discount

 

[UncleWai]

Paying your annual ransom to the investment bankers.

 

[Imp]

Yep, game over.

Relinking The Telegraph...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/

With 99% reporting, it's 51.8% Leave and 48.2% Remain. Regions with votes still to count are in favor of Remain.

Voter turnout was supposedly 72.2%. That is pretty high.

The CAD is down $2. Holy shit, flight to safety. NIKKEI down 7.9% right now. Shanghai doesn't give a shit, only down 1.3%.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Um.....Germany down 12% !!!

A corresponding drop in the DOW would be DOWN -2,160 POINTS!

 

[holden j caufield]

I'm tempted to take me profits from my tvix bet and just buy everything on the cheap. Only problem is I have a sinking feeling the quick recovery from the -1000 crash last fall and the fall in Jan/early Feb both made great gains quickly in a month's time. It can't keep recovering and some time it won't bounce back so nicely.

 

[Imp]

Japan's NIKKEI should be closing soon... -7.8%.

The German 10-year Bund is yielding -0.13% right now -- it skirted -0.0x last week?

And if anyone wants encouragement, go look up the chart for SPY back as far as it will go -- ETF that mirrors the S&P 500. Look at the two bull markets that ended in 2001 and 2008. Tell me the current run doesn't look familiar...

Edit:

P.S. Now that it's over, I will not forget how fucked up and unnecessarily divisive this campaign was. I like to think I lean left politically, but anyone in the Leave camp was labelled a racist, uneducated, uninformed, ignorant, etc. What the hell? This was not a left-wing/right-wing thing and yet people were making it so -- even the Tories (right-wing) were for Remain.

 

[holden j caufield]

Does Interactive Brokers have different premarket hours? I see stocks are trading premarket right now at 630am EST. On my brokerage I can't trade premarket until 8am EST

http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nugt/premarket

They are already trading.

 

[KB]

I sold close to 50% before the vote knowing the risk was 50/50, so I will be buying something on the cheap. Be sure to put your "stink bids" in. Stop loss selling should make a nice flash crash today.

Remember it takes two years before the separation. Nothing has really changed that much in the near term, nor the far term, only the medium term is different.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Nugt $126

 

[holden j caufield]

tvix was up 60%+ in the early mornings now only up 31%. I'm starting to see not so much panic. I really wish I could have sold my TVIX and NUGT last night. Gold spiked to 1350. Does Interactive Brokers offer more trading hours?

 

[ponyo]

*yawn* Someone wake me up if we approach Feb levels for S&P. I'm going back to sleep.