***Official*** 2016 Stock Market Thread

[Imp]

.............I should stop reading comments about Canada's housing market.

People citing Japan's 2-3 lost decades as why rates can stay low for decades, therefore house prices in Canada won't ever go down. They don't appear to know that Japan's stock market crashed and never recovered -- I can't find a chart for their house prices but what I've heard is that it, also, never recovered.

 

[Charmonium]

That seems to be correct based this chart that seems to go through 2015 or 16

http://inflationdata.com/articles/inflation-adjusted-prices/inflation-adjusted-housing-prices/

 

[jpiniero]

... and today someone at the Fed sounds dovish, and stocks soar.

 

[Imp]

^Only got online first time today an hour ago but I saw the tickers and assumed some bullshit about "Fed tightening worries dissipate."

So, in conclusion, once again, the markets are just central bank driven voodoo dolls.

 

[FelixDeCat]

... and today someone at the Fed sounds dovish, and stocks soar.

Nothing but scams and frauds these days.

 

[larciel]

I told you. First the Russians manipulate oil up and down (oil minister says no cooperation, causes crash, Putin wants to cooperate, causes rally). Now the Fed is playing the damn game.

Friday's sell off based on a hawkish speech was a stupid over reaction. Now the over reaction in the opposite direction was simply a scam fraud by market manipulators like Goldman.

Friday - OMG SELL!! Another .25 rate hike on the table. One quarter of one percent!! ARRRRGGGHH!!

Today - Nothing to see here people, move along.

Nothing but scams and frauds these days.

Welcome to capitalism 2016.

Sent from my SM-N930T using Tapatalk

 

[Charmonium]

This should shed some light on things. I don't know what time period these numbers are for - if they're daily, monthly, what. But the chart speaks for itself - 1/4 of all S&P trading is from stock buybacks. And what finances buybacks? Cheap money.

 

[Imp]

Fucking bullshit. What about all the money lost on weekly options? Goldman took every penny.

Nothing but scams and frauds these days.

Ah, you sound like me now... I approve.

Too bad there's no money to be made except by HFTs when the market barely moves 1-2% over the past months.

 

[larciel]

This should shed some light on things. I don't know what time period these numbers are for - if they're daily, monthly, what. But the chart speaks for itself - 1/4 of all S&P trading is from stock buybacks. And what finances buybacks? Cheap money.

Cheap money only for certain few. That's for sure.

Sent from my SM-N930T using Tapatalk

 

[Imp]

^That's not true. Rich people/corporations and banks get access to that cheap money. It'll trickle down to us peasants...

Edit: STOP THE PRESSES!!!

Global oil demand growth is slowing at a faster pace than first thought, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest market update, warning that markets would have to wait "a while longer" for markets to rebalance.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/13/iea-...-market-will-take-longer-than-we-thought.html

Slowing global economy + jump in production resulting in massive glut of oil... Never would have guessed this one.

 

[Imp]

Markets appear to be down, same amount as Friday.

I haven't checked the news yet, but let me guess: some voting/non-voting member of the Fed said something. Will check back later after I've read the headlines...

 

[brianmanahan]

umm you guys realize that buybacks are similar to dividends, right?

 

[Charmonium]

umm you guys realize that buybacks are similar to dividends, right?

True, but it's really more financial engineering than true earnings. You're really paying for it by increasing your debt burden. Granted that the debt is almost free, but it still costs something.

 

[Imp]

^Dividends, if the company is profitable, should be a one-time per distribution event -- sometimes it's borrowed during bad times.

Buy-backs with cheap debt, I think, is lowering your outstanding shares to divide your market cap using a smaller divisor. What happens when rates go up and more money has to be used to service that debt?

P.S. And the headlines say something something Fed. I didn't see a Fed statement but bla bla headlines blame Fed.

Company research released Tuesday says that roughly 718,000 of those people wouldn't be able to keep their financial heads above water if their interest rate went up by as little as 0.25 percentage points.

Go go Canada!
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/transunion-debt-interest-rates-1.3759844

 

[Charmonium]

What I heard on the financial news yesterday was that US households are actually in better shape financially than US corporations. Apparently, consumers learned the lessons of 2008 and are in a much better position to whether any economic downturn than the companies are.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh look .... another selloff.

 

[Imp]

API oil numbers out.. and we're back to normal.

Edit: Uh ohs, suddenly hearing more talk of a "bond bubble" on the interwebs -- not sure if they mean sovereign/lower risk bonds or high-yield. Property bubbles: China, at least a few European countries, Canada, Australia, at least San Fran in U.S., and I think Israel plus a nearby country. S&P 500 and DOW floating are near record highs even after adjusting for inflation.

Sentiment now is suddenly that central banks have done all they can and/or are ineffective.

This will end great.

 

[Imp]

Uh ohs, WTI is down to the $43 range again...

What will raise it this time? A statement from Saudi Arabia, a statement from Russian... "Talk" of an OPEC meeting to talk about an agreement?

Who knows!

Edit: Go go Canada. We're almost at Australia's level in the low 170s.

The ratio of household credit market debt to disposable income rose from 165.2 per cent in the first quarter of the year to 167.6 per cent in the second quarter.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/debt-income-ratio-record-1.3763343

And sweeeet. Go go responsible lending/borrowing! Don't worry, government will bail all of us out.

For the first time, the level of debt held by Canadians has exceeded the country’s gross domestic product...

Might be video:
http://business.financialpost.com/n...is-now-bigger-than-its-gdp-for-the-first-time

 

[Imp]

Deutsche Bank tanking over $14B fine or settlement or whatever they call it. Still not as low as it hit in previous months.

Funny cause their market cap is only about US$ 19B. They made $20 million last quarter? Looking at the charts in the Bloomberg article, the amount may be reduced to 10-30% of the original, if I'm reading it right. Go go Lehman II...

There be video:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-15/deutsche-bank-asked-to-pay-14-billion-in-u-s-probe-wsj-says?utm_content=business&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&cmpid==socialflow-twitter-business

 

[FelixDeCat]

Gallon of gas in DFW? $1.85

 

[JEDI]

so oil is taking a dive (-3% to $42/barrel) yet the market is up +200 points?

 

[ImpulsE69]

Gold is killing me. I did a no no and now holding a endless bag. I really feel long term it will recover, but day-am it is hard to stay positive (plus the fricking decay).

 

[ponyo]

Gold is killing me. I did a no no and now holding a endless bag. I really feel long term it will recover, but day-am it is hard to stay positive (plus the fricking decay).

You didn't sell your NUGT during the spike we had early this month? 3X stuff will kill you with decay but I guess you know that. I'm only holding physical gold at the moment. I sold GLD and used the profit to buy more gold Queen's Beast coins.

 

[ImpulsE69]

You didn't sell your NUGT during the spike we had early this month? 3X stuff will kill you with decay but I guess you know that. I'm only holding physical gold at the moment. I sold GLD and used the profit to buy more gold Queen's Beast coins.

No, probably should have. It wasn't close enough to my average and then is just plummeted again. It was a bad move on my part, didn't stick to my plan, but that is because I am pretty bullish on gold long term. Gold and miners are not acting like they should be. Too much manipulation going on.

 

[Imp]

Hey, everyone, it's all okay, Venezuela said there might be an OPEC deal. If I'm going to listen to anyone, it's the country with an imploded economy with runaway inflation and a population that doesn't have access to essentials.

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said on Sunday that a deal between OPEC and non-OPEC countries could be announced this month.

Potential video:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/18/oil-up-as-venezuela-sees-output-deal-libya-suffers-clashes.html

Edit: And it looks like the "emerging-art" bubble burst. Add that to the list of others.

Art dealer and collector Niels Kantor paid $100,000 two years ago for an abstract canvas by Hugh Scott-Douglas with the idea of quickly reselling it for a tidy profit. Instead, he is returning the 28-year-old artist’s work to the market this week at an 80 per cent discount.

https://www.thestar.com/business/20...g-artist-to-flip-be-ready-to-take-a-loss.html