1) Cherry picked dates don't prove any points. For example, in inflation adjusted dollars (using year 2012 as a basis, but the point is the same) was well over $2000/oz in 1980 to 1981. Now it is under $1250/oz. Since that price of gold dropped 38% does that mean that fiat currency is the better option? Of course not. There is no link when you cherry pick dates.
2) 1971 is the wrong date anyways. The US only followed the gold standard from 1879 to 1933. In 1933 it was made illegal to own gold, so the idea that you could exchange currency for gold was eliminated. Also in 1933 the POTUS was given control of the price of gold. By 1934 we were only 60% gold backed due to this. The amount of gold backing kept dropping over the years. In 1945 due to the war, we dropped the reserves another 25%. In 1965 we repealed the requirement for gold reserves on Federal Reserve deposits. In 1968, we repealed the requirement for gold reserves on Federal Reserve notes. 1971 was only a partial dropping of the remaining miniscule gold reserves as it really didn't end in practice until 1973. Then in 1976 the end of the gold standard was made official. So which date do you need for your point to be true?
3) There is no link to debt and gold prices; at least none that you proved.
4) Yes, we should pay off debt but through balanced budgets, not through fake gold backing. The US debt dropped in actual dollars once that I know of. The actual officially sanctioned US treasury debt level dropped at the end of the 1990s. As percent of GDP, the US debt dropped after the start of the country, after the civil war, after WW1, after WW2, and in Clinton's second term (combination of computer boom and among political parties).
That kind of wealth doesn't exist any more. Or more accurately, the size of the country grew so much that one person doesn't make as much of a difference. But, to put things into perspective, the top 1% could theoretically pay off the national debt and have plenty left over (also since they tend to be the ones who own the debt, they'd be paying the money back to themselves as the government pays off its loans).Assuming it's the same "debt reduction," wasn't it Carnegie or Morgan that volunteered and personally paid off the national debt one year, brought it back to even? .....not that this kind of personal wealth exists any more considering the current debt, but you know what if we went back to that 80-90% tax rate that those titans once lived with; and exceedingly comfortably?
Paying off the debt is easy, all you have to do is balance the budget and then wait 30 years. There's not much incentive to do so though. Also what would the markets be like if the US stopped offering T-bills?Your answer was well thought out dullard, but.... saying that numbers go from 2 to 8 then back to 5 (from 8) while clearly ignoring the progression from 1 to 10 in the first place is not "cherry picking".
The National Debt is undeniably gigantic and a financial burden on our futures that should not exist one iota. Its complete payoff would be the greatest boon to our futures we have ever seen barring the physical expansion of America itself via Manifest Destiny.
Paying off the debt is easy, all you have to do is balance the budget and then wait 30 years. There's not much incentive to do so though. Also what would the markets be like if the US stopped offering T-bills?
so sell S&P500 and buy TIPs?Spread between junk bonds and Treasuries is up. That tends to correlate with pullbacks in the S&P
Can't link to only this image but the general link is - http://theonedave.tumblr.com/
As rates go up, bonds will have a capital loss. That's only a paper loss though unless you try to sell but you'd most likely be buying a fund or etf so you never know if they're going to hold to maturity, whether or not they're going to ladder their maturities, etc. So if you really think the market is headed down, cash is probably the best option. You can always hedge though and buy some call options. With the VIX low, the premium on options should be reasonable.so sell S&P500 and buy TIPs?
When something is overpriced, the correction almost always comes much later and is much steeper than almost anyone thinks. Meaning if you think Tesla will fall today, you are usually better off waiting a year or two before shorting it as the actual fall will occur much later than you think. But, be prepared to act fast or you'll miss the opportunity if it does start to fall.Tesla stock is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, massively overpriced. But it keeps going up, getting even more overpriced. When should I short this sucker? Want to catch it at its peak, not get run over if it keeps going up after I short it haha.
Tesla has overtaken GM's market cap as well. I suck at market timing, so don't ask me. There are different end games possible for Tesla. Assuming they "succeed" (i.e. get to 1M cars annually) within a decade tops, that is already priced into their current valuation.The investment thread got me thinking. Tesla now has a market cap bigger than Ford. Freaking FORD, which sells like a bazillion cars annually. Tesla stock is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, massively overpriced. But it keeps going up, getting even more overpriced. When should I short this sucker? Want to catch it at its peak, not get run over if it keeps going up after I short it haha.
Thanks.
Tesla has overtaken GM's market cap as well. I suck at market timing, so don't ask me. There are different end games possible for Tesla. Assuming they "succeed" (i.e. get to 1M cars annually) within a decade tops, that is already priced into their current valuation.
Obviously there are plenty of scenarios where they don't succeed, and short selling will become profitable. IMO it will likely be correlated to a broad market correction and conditions that make it much more difficult for TSLA to raise the capital it needs to scale up Model 3 production globally.
Personally I would like to see them "succeed" but I'm pessimistic that the Model 3 roll-out will go smoothly. Even if it does, BMW's segment-leading 3 Series is said to average about $5,000 (net) profit per car sold. That's not bad at volume but Tesla would be happy to get to that profit margin and sales rate in a short time period. I'm far from convinced that it'll happen, but I'm no soothsayer either.
Gold up bigly tonight. Earlier in the day I purchased a 1 0Z Gold Maple Leaf, it is currently my only physical holding just to carry around in my pocket Everything else has been liquidated.
You should tie it to a string and walk around town, dropping it in homeless dudes' coin cups then extracting it immediately: "Psych!"
2013, the first year the Canadian Royal Mint added the maple privy security mark to the gold 1 oz maple. I prefer gold maples starting from 2015 since they added the radial line background in addition to the maple privy. The radial lines give cool lighting effect you don't get with older gold maples.Well, it finally came in, and Gold was up nearly $30 an ounce over North Korea tensions. Question is - where do I put the hole?
Fifty Walking Liberty silver half dollars are worth about $330 melt.Right through the eye! I don't trust no queen in her god-d*rned dundies!
By the way, I have about 50 of those LIberty silver dollars from between '22 to '50 or so...probably more. I need to go back through them at some point....a semi-inheritance from my grandmother. Last I checked all of the coins (way more than just the silver dollars--tons of pre-76 or whatever silver quarters, et al) the collection had a melt value ~$2300. I'm assuming that hasn't changed much since 2012 or so.
I recall that none of the Liberties are from the collectible Mints for the appropriate year (SF, I think?), so the whole collection is basically melt value.