***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[dullard]

yeah, but there are only ~3.5 potential weeks of sales for Ryzen (and only 30% of the product stack) in all of Q1. It was never a mystery that Q2 would be more indicative of actual adoption. I guess they missed that nugget, too?

While it is true that Ryzen was barely on the market in the quarter, it is a sharp and harsh contrast from a Q1 loss for AMD compared to a record Q1 result from Intel (http://www.anandtech.com/show/11307/intel-announces-q1-2017-financial-results-record-quarter).

AMD needs to show that it can actually turn good products into good profits. Ryzen was never their savior. Naples was always the holy grail. I don't think that AMD is giving investors enough confidence that they can make Naples a financial success (yet). If Naples does well, AMD's stock will skyrocket. If not, it'll keep limping along. So, which of those two directions is AMD headed? The best that investors have to go off of is AMD's own forecast, in which AMD lowered expectations to an unprofitable 33% gross margin.

Essentially AMD is back in the game, but didn't price Ryzen high enough to win the game.

 

[zinfamous]

While it is true that Ryzen was barely on the market in the quarter, it is a sharp and harsh contrast from a Q1 loss for AMD compared to a record Q1 result from Intel (http://www.anandtech.com/show/11307/intel-announces-q1-2017-financial-results-record-quarter).

AMD needs to show that it can actually turn good products into good profits. Ryzen was never their savior. Naples was always the holy grail. I don't think that AMD is giving investors enough confidence that they can make Naples a financial success (yet). If Naples does well, AMD's stock will skyrocket. If not, it'll keep limping along. So, which of those two directions is AMD headed? The best that investors have to go off of is AMD's own forecast, in which AMD lowered expectations to an unprofitable 33% gross margin.

Essentially AMD is back in the game, but didn't price Ryzen high enough to win the game.

ah,. that detail, I did not realize (because I don't delve into the numbers. ). Thought the difference from 34 to 33% seemed arbitrary, but I did not realize that 1% tipped the hat clearly into "we predict no profit" category :\ That's a huge bummer.

Naples was always the news I was looking for, anyway, because that is where their margins are supposed to be--but it looks like much of those sales numbers have strong estimates by now (they had to be shopping these out pretty seriously for the last several months, no?), and AMD isn't all that pleased by projections? Or, I wonder if it is supply?

 

[Mermaidman]

AAPL I sold part of my holdings. Couldn't resist all time high, and it's bound to pull back some . . . Right?

Problem is - What to do now with the cash. Don't say "AMD."

 

[dullard]

AAPL I sold part of my holdings. Couldn't resist all time high, and it's bound to pull back some . . . Right?

Problem is - What to do now with the cash. Don't say "AMD."

There is never anything wrong with taking profits. That is, unless you don't have a plan for what to do with those profits.

The expert answer is that now is always the right time to invest. Put it in a broadly diversified mutual fund (such as the S&P500).

I happen to be a bottom feeder, jumping in when something is quite cheap (but not a falling knife). So, I too am finding very few things that interest me for investing. Instead of investing, I actually went on a buying spree, buying physical things that I've always wanted (kayaks, more vacations) or replacing things that were old/failing (computer, house windows).

The things that are low right now and have large upside potential are:

• TIPS (if Trump's proposals actually go through they sound quite inflationary which would make TIPS a good buy). But the last budget that was just passed seemed to include virtually none of his wishes. I'll probably wait until September to see the next budget before considering TIPS.
• Bonds. But as the federal reserve is still on an interest hike path, I don't think now is quite the time to buy.
• Energy. Oil has fallen for quite some time and potentially could bounce back. Early 2016 would have been a better time to buy energy, but the prices are still low.
  
• Metals and Mining. After nearly 6 years of shorting metals (and doing quite well at that), I am actually starting to consider buying them instead. But, I think there is another 20% drop that is still possible, so I'm holding off.
• Small value stocks. Here is the interesting play. Large growth stocks have done the worst in the last year of all categories, but in the last 3 months since Trump started, large growth stocks have skyrocketed. Small value stocks are the opposite - went up a lot in the last year but are actually down since Trump started. That means that small value stocks are potentially more likely to weather a short-term stock market downturn (if the Trump effect wears off) than large growth stocks.

 

[JEDI]

AAPL I sold part of my holdings. Couldn't resist all time high, and it's bound to pull back some . . . Right?

Problem is - What to do now with the cash. Don't say "AMD."

I wouldn't have sold.
warren buffet caused that aapl all time high yesterday by doubling his stake in apple to $20b.
I'm going to place blind faith that appl will be going up more... a lot more

god, I wished I was the stock broker who typed in that order.
$10,000,000,000
computer responds: Are you sure?

then you double check MANY times to make sure you didn't add too many zeros or too few

 

[FelixDeCat]

I haven't traded one stock in the last 60 days. I would have lost money otherwise.

I still watch the market though but don't trade. I would have been nice to pick up VRX at $8.85...todays close one month later was $12.50 on increased optimism.

 

[Charmonium]

One of the analysts I follow has been decreasing their number of 'buy' ratings. A few weeks ago every stock they covered seemed to be a buy. Now the buys are becoming sparser.

 

[ImpulsE69]

Everything 'long' I watch is down. The money right now is in day trade snipes on spikes. The problem with that is it is almost a full time job to do it with any efficiency.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh snap! SNAP gets a royal beat down to $18 and change. $15 here we come!

 

[Train]

god, I wished I was the stock broker who typed in that order.
$10,000,000,000
computer responds: Are you sure?

My limited understanding is that you CAN'T enter an order that big. Unless magically you can find someone selling that much with an account of the same brokerage. It has to be broken up and probably even chunked out to other brokerages to get completed in a reasonable amount of time.

 

[repoman0]

But Naples and Vega are still on track for Q2. I might buy in again if this hits $10...and certainly lower.

I am wishing I bought a bunch in the low 10s did you end up grabbing more?

 

[zinfamous]

I am wishing I bought a bunch in the low 10s did you end up grabbing more?

lolno, I didn't. I kept meaning to update that over the last week. It dipped all the way to 9.95 or so, but I was strongly considering putting a buy order of $10. I'm just gun-shy. :\

Looks like investors don't like the idea of Vega Pro only for Q2, and seem to not care that the rather awesome news about Naples (now "Epyc"? wtf, AMD?) is far more important. Ah well. Maybe another $10 order soon....

 

[RockinZ28]

Any advice for investing and diversifying about 80k that's going to waste in my savings account? Probably minimum of 5 years.

Vast majority of my investments are in retirement accounts, and of that it's mostly VTSMX and Vanguard 2040 fund. Maxed out my Roth IRA, company has no 401k unfortunately, and I'm putting $500/wk into Betterment. Just opened a LendingClub account and threw 6k in there, will see how that goes.

Debts are a couple car loans, one at 0%. Other at 2.3%, but that should be easily beatable. Making double payments anyway so it will be paid off in 2.5 years.

Interested in playing with some individual stocks as well, with maybe a couple grand I don't mind losing to start. Free/super low cost trades?

 

[zinfamous]

Any advice for investing and diversifying about 80k that's going to waste in my savings account? Probably minimum of 5 years.

Vast majority of my investments are in retirement accounts, and of that it's mostly VTSMX and Vanguard 2040 fund. Maxed out my Roth IRA, company has no 401k unfortunately, and I'm putting $500/wk into Betterment. Just opened a LendingClub account and threw 6k in there, will see how that goes.

Debts are a couple car loans, one at 0%. Other at 2.3%, but that should be easily beatable. Making double payments anyway so it will be paid off in 2.5 years.

Interested in playing with some individual stocks as well, with maybe a couple grand I don't mind losing to start. Free/super low cost trades?

Pay off the car loans first. Interest or no interest, even the zero interest is costing you monthly $$$ that you otherwise shouldn't be throwing away, like you are. Sure, you're not "losing money" because you aren't paying interest to the bank on that one loan...but you really are losing money because of the interest of around 6-8% that you could be earning with VTSMX if your money was going there, instead.

Then, I dunno...it sounds like you are already diversified with VTSMX (er, you should bump that up to the Admiral shares class, VTSAX, because the ER is .04%, vs 0.15% with VTSMX. If you don't already have the $10k in there required to go VTSAX, then at the very least you should double or triple your investment there.)

Then buy a boat.

 

[JEDI]

I'm putting $500/wk into Betterment.

whats betterment?

 

[KB]

whats betterment?

https://www.betterment.com/

Its one of those new robo-advisors. You answer a bunch of questions and it tells you what funds to put your money in. The plus is low fees although Vanguard beats them.

 

[zinfamous]

whats betterment?

Betterment

 

[RockinZ28]

https://www.betterment.com/

Its one of those new robo-advisors. You answer a bunch of questions and it tells you what funds to put your money in. The plus is low fees although Vanguard beats them.

Yeah was super simple to start. Don't remember many questions. There's another one called Wealthfront that does the first 10k without any fees, going to give that a go as well.

Oh and the bastards changed their fee structure. Used to be based on how much you had in there. Know there was a .15% bracket, but now it's just a flat .25%.

Pay off the car loans first. Interest or no interest, even the zero interest is costing you monthly $$$ that you otherwise shouldn't be throwing away, like you are. Sure, you're not "losing money" because you aren't paying interest to the bank on that one loan...but you really are losing money because of the interest of around 6-8% that you could be earning with VTSMX if your money was going there, instead.

Then, I dunno...it sounds like you are already diversified with VTSMX (er, you should bump that up to the Admiral shares class, VTSAX, because the ER is .04%, vs 0.15% with VTSMX. If you don't already have the $10k in there required to go VTSAX, then at the very least you should double or triple your investment there.)

Then buy a boat.

Not paying off the loans because like you said, I should be earning 6-8% interest on that money that's sitting in my bank. Giving them 20k to pay off the 0% loan is a total waste, as I can throw 20k into investments instead.

I'll have to look into the VTSAX. My VTSMX is in a former employer 401k, and didn't see VTSAX. May have to roll it into my personal Vanguard account to get the admiral shares.

 

[Charmonium]

Your not very diversified with a stock index fund and a targeted fund with a long target date. Almost all of your money is in equities. The 2040 fund probably has some bonds but is probably heavily in equities.

You might want to look into more diverse investments like REITs and commodities. There are funds for both but be sure to check their expenses and fees as well as any redemption restrictions.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Making money with Dynacert! (DYA)

All my other stocks, not so much.

 

[zinfamous]

Yeah was super simple to start. Don't remember many questions. There's another one called Wealthfront that does the first 10k without any fees, going to give that a go as well.

Oh and the bastards changed their fee structure. Used to be based on how much you had in there. Know there was a .15% bracket, but now it's just a flat .25%.



Not paying off the loans because like you said, I should be earning 6-8% interest on that money that's sitting in my bank. Giving them 20k to pay off the 0% loan is a total waste, as I can throw 20k into investments instead.

I'll have to look into the VTSAX. My VTSMX is in a former employer 401k, and didn't see VTSAX. May have to roll it into my personal Vanguard account to get the admiral shares.

Ah I see. surprised they wouldn't offer an institutional version of the total stock index, which is often better than admiral. Was it a smallish company? (I don't know the cutoff, but you might need employee #s in the 10-2k plus range to qualify for that). Otherwise, yeah--I would roll it into your personal IRA if I were you. Nothing to lose, only gains when you do that.

 

[Uppsala9496]

What will tomorrow bring? Another drop like today and I may have to use some cash to get some more VTI.

 

[JEDI]

Any advice for investing and diversifying about 80k that's going to waste in my savings account? Probably minimum of 5 years.

Vast majority of my investments are in retirement accounts, and of that it's mostly VTSMX and Vanguard 2040 fund. Maxed out my Roth IRA, company has no 401k unfortunately, and I'm putting $500/wk into Betterment. Just opened a LendingClub account and threw 6k in there, will see how that goes.

vwenx -> Vanguard wellington fund

actively managed and diversified

Cash 0.94%

US Stocks 52.94%

Non-US Stocks 11.88% (aka International)

Bonds 30.92%

Other 3.33% (um...???)

never realized bonds were so high.
is that usual?
or are they thinking the market is over valued and will drop soon?

 

[dullard]

vwenx -> Vanguard wellington fund

Bonds 30.92%

Other 3.33% (um...???)

never realized bonds were so high. is that usual? or are they thinking the market is over valued and will drop soon?

That is the oldest balanced fund and is closed to most new investors. It is not intended for the young with 50+ years for the money to grow. It is a set-it-and-forget it fund for people who are close to retirement or in retirement. 30% bonds is fairly good for many people at that stage of life. Their goal is (and has been for quite some time) to have 2/3rd stock and 1/3rd cash/bonds. Seems like they are close to that point. The prospectus says 30% to 40% fixed income, so they are on the lower end of bonds compared to what they are allowed to have.

The "Other" category means things that are not easily classified. This would be preferred stocks, convertible bonds, corporate securities, warrants, options, and probably things like commodities.

 

[FelixDeCat]

TIMber!!!

Don't be fooled however. Goldman was selling puts to the less informed all day long today.