***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[FelixDeCat]

Sell. Now.

Everything.

Okay, this call was premature as the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq all set new records.

But I would like to take the opportunity to laugh at SNAP.......$12.73.....lol

 

[FelixDeCat]

This has to be some sort of record. I haven't made one trade since March. No stocks, no options, nothing. Everything is going to being debt free ATM.

 

[Charmonium]

The savings rate is going down so with low official unemployment, consumer spending will keep increasing. That means no downturn for the foreseeable future.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

The savings rate is going down so with low official unemployment, consumer spending will keep increasing. That means no downturn for the foreseeable future.

See I always find this funny - the fact that my city/town gets more and more crowded during daily commute rush hour traffic is part of what makes me go home and avoid going out (and potentially spending money). Knowing it will take me an extra 20 to get to the store, and an extra 45 minutes to manuever through isles with the mass amount of people is what makes me just say "fuck it" I can do this another day.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't know where you are but yeah, here in central NJ we don't really have rush hours any more. The traffic is always bad, even in the middle of the day. I'm always thinking, 'don't these f***ing people have jobs?' My fat ass is retired so I have an excuse. It's supposed to be smooth sailing for me at least between 10 and 2pm. Bullsh**.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I don't know where you are but yeah, here in central NJ we don't really have rush hours any more. The traffic is always bad, even in the middle of the day. I'm always thinking, 'don't these f***ing people have jobs?' My fat ass is retired so I have an excuse. It's supposed to be smooth sailing for me at least between 10 and 2pm. Bullsh**.

It's all about early morning weekends (7-9) or late at night weeknights (8-10). I have found those are the only times I am willing to go to the gym or grocery store.

 

[dullard]

Okay, this call was premature as the DOW, S&P and Nasdaq all set new records.l

Maybe not.

S&P close on the day of the sell recommendation: 2,472.54
S&P maximum close: 2,480.91 (0.34% higher than recommendation)
S&P now: 2450.14 (0.91% below recommendation)

 

[Ken g6]

Sell. Now.

Everything.

Glad I followed this advice now, at least to the point of 10% of "everything".

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

I still don't foresee anything that's going to trigger much of a bear market in the next month....

 

[FelixDeCat]

Maybe not.

Glad I followed this advice now, at least to the point of 10% of "everything".

This market has been so strong and frankly earnings have been pretty good for tech stocks, etc. Most selling has been met with buying the following day. And while North Korea escalations are certainly something to worry about, along with a LONG overdue market correction of at least 10%......this market keeps getting bought.

At the moment, futures are off slightly, no follow through selling indicated. Market probably ends flat tomorrow.

 

[FelixDeCat]

WOW....market had its biggest selloff in a while on fears Trump's reforms in limbo with continuing controversies.

Will tomorrow be any better?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Meh, no where close still to what it should be. This is just more fear garbage, market will be back up in a week.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Meh, no where close still to what it should be. This is just more fear garbage, market will be back up in a week.

That strategy has worked all year - buy the dip. But as time goes on and it appears that Trump just continues to keep tripping on his tail, the market does have a reason to worry about things like meaningful tax and regulation reform. Once that gets factored back out of the market (10-15% decrease??), the it will be earnings driven as always.

 

[ImpulsE69]

My 5 year plan turned into a 1 month plan. I've been bagholding a huge loss on MGTI since it was delisted to OTC last year. I figured it was such a large loss it made more sense to just hold it and hope for the best far in the future. As of yesterday I got rid of it all at a nice profit.

 

[JEDI]

Why are Utilities gaining so much?
ytd: 14.5%
last year: 17%
2014: 27%

they're supposedly regulated, right?
or is the city/state screwing over their citizens?

 

[KB]

Why are Utilities gaining so much?
ytd: 14.5%
last year: 17%
2014: 27%

they're supposedly regulated, right?
or is the city/state screwing over their citizens?

I understand there is a large demand for yield because the 10 year treasury yield is 2.2% and utilities pay more, but I am very surprised by just how much utilities have gone up. Electricity prices are still very low and telecoms and reits are paying higher average yields. This question boogles me too and I expect utilities will fall rather hard in the next downturn.

 

[Charmonium]

Maybe it has to do with dividend yields. Yields relative to price were so high compared to market rates of a couple percent that the price of shares got bid up. Not sure why that would be a 3 year trend though when rates have been fairly stable.

 

[JEDI]

Maybe it has to do with dividend yields. Yields relative to price were so high compared to market rates of a couple percent that the price of shares got bid up. Not sure why that would be a 3 year trend though when rates have been fairly stable.

whopps.. I left out 2015, which was a slightly down year at around -4%

 

[FelixDeCat]

One more rate hike in December. Yay!

 

[ImpulsE69]

AMD rocket today due to AI deal with Tesla. Wish I had been holding more shares. I expect it to go up some more tomorrow. New PT around $22.

 

[FelixDeCat]

AMD rocket today due to AI deal with Tesla. Wish I had been holding more shares. I expect it to go up some more tomorrow. New PT around $22.

How do you come up with a PT of $22? And what time frame are we talking about? If you are talking less than one year, I will eat my shoe.

 

[ImpulsE69]

How do you come up with a PT of $22? And what time frame are we talking about? If you are talking less than one year, I will eat my shoe.

There were a few analysts that put the PT at $22 no idea on a timeframe...doubt it would be this year..but who knows about a year, they'd have to pull quite a bit out for that to happen. Today's complete retrace kind of makes you wonder. Almost feel like the articles were specifically misleading to cause the price spike. Now it is just 'a rumor'. Granted many people are blaming Apple for techs bad day.

 

[Charmonium]

Everybody seems to freaking out about the fact that the Fed is going to start reducing their balance sheet. High interest rates ho! But personally I think that's bullshit. If the market is right and we're going to see growth over the next couple of quarters, that means there's going to be a demand for money and therefore for loans. What happens when banks make loans? The money supply goes up. So while the Fed is out there selling assets and sucking up liquidity, the money multiplier is busy humping the economy making brand new baby dollars.

 

[JEDI]

sector strategy:
on Jan 2 (or whatever 1st trading day of year), buy last year's worse sector.
on jan 2 of next year, sell that sector and buy the new worse sector.
rinse/repeat.

http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspd...nts/Document Resources/10 Year Sector Returns

the worse sector became the best sector the following year 4 times out of the past 10yrs.
can someone do the calc to see how much it beat the S&P in that 10yr span? (s&p avg +7.18% in those 10yrs)

 

[Charmonium]

Neat chart. But in 4 of the other 5 (9 total) transitions, the worst sector in one year was either the worst or near the bottom for the next. In the one case where this wasn't true, 2010-11 where Health Care was at the bottom, it came in 3rd the next year.

So the odds of this being true or close to true next year are better than 50% but since Energy is the current loser for 2017 and considering that it was one of the sectors that's had 2 year tours at or near the bottom, that might be significant chance to take.

It might be worth tossing some money into an energy etf though, just for shits and grins.