***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[JEDI]

Neat chart. But in 4 of the other 5 (9 total) transitions, the worst sector in one year was either the worst or near the bottom for the next. In the one case where this wasn't true, 2010-11 where Health Care was at the bottom, it came in 3rd the next year.

So the odds of this being true or close to true next year are better than 50% but since Energy is the current loser for 2017 and considering that it was one of the sectors that's had 2 year tours at or near the bottom, that might be significant chance to take.

It might be worth tossing some money into an energy etf though, just for shits and grins.

or save the hassle and pick a value etf?
it should include a lot of stocks from last years worst performing sector?

 

[FelixDeCat]

Oh look - no one has bought Twitter.

Not Microsoft.

Not Salesforce.

Not Disney.

Nobody.

All of it was just a bunch of pump-n-dump nonsense.

 

[holden j caufield]

https://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:MNKD

I can't believe I own MNKD stock, I should have bought more, might be retired or broke as pharma stocks are really a mind fuck. I actually owned AMD also around $2 mark and sold way too early in 2016, even posted about amd in the 2016 thread many times.

Stocks I owned that I also sold too early

Rackspace
Ivensense
solar city ( Idid own sunedison , so glad I took my profit as that is worth 2 cents now)

 

[Charmonium]

Nice catch. Inhaled insulin should be a huge market with the obesity crisis. It makes it much more convenient than injections plus you don't have the refrigeration requirements. The one possible downside is the pending release of implantable pump/monitors that will release insulin as needed like an artificial pancreas. But that will be a much more expensive solution.

 

[AnMig]

need quick rollover advice guys

Need to rollover wife's pension plan into a stock or fund (changing jobs) in about 1-2 weeks.

plan to keep money in place for 10-15 years, she is looking at a few options and need feed back.

AMD - love there video card but they are pretty high compared to last year

Vanguard index fund

long leaf

around $250,000

thanks

We do have a financial planner but want to keep him out of this one time rollover.
Still regretting selling AMD too early

 

[Charmonium]

I'd split it between actively managed and passive funds. Vanguard is the best choice for passive funds. Go for the Admiral shares since they have the lowest fees I don't remember what the minimums are. Pretty sure it's at least 10k per fund though might be as high as 25k for some. For actively managed, I've always used T. Rowe Price but there are probably other options although I couldn't tell you what they are. Fees are higher but returns are better. Some of those funds like health and I think telecom have done around 25% this year. But that's the exception of course.

Once you break it down between active and passive then you need to decide on allocation between fixed income and equity. with a 15 year horizon you probably want to favor equity say 65-70% and fixed for the rest. I tend to put most of my FI investments into high yield which moves more with the stock market than interest rates so if the market dips you get a double hit but the returns are better.

In terms of sectors, as I mentioned, tech and health have done well for me this year but I'd also look at emerging markets. I'd be cautious about REITs since we're going into a rising rate environment and that raises costs but demand for housing is strong so that sector might not be played out.

 

[AnMig]

thank you, we are planning on splitting between vanguard and long leaf for active deciding between global or international).

My wife actually understood what you wrote down.

thanks

will hold off on amd for now

 

[FelixDeCat]

Well here we are...October..the most infamous month of the year. Will the market finally get a much deserved spanking?

 

[JEDI]

Well here we are...October..the most infamous month of the year. Will the market finally get a much deserved spanking?

Mortgage your house and SHORT!

 

[KB]

Well here we are...October..the most infamous month of the year. Will the market finally get a much deserved spanking?

It certainly is possible as there are definitely some major concerns.
-Record Corporate debt
-Record Student Loan debt
-Record stock margin debt
-Bitcoin bubble
-Record high stock prices - i.e. Tesla bubble
-Trump policies not getting through congress
-Wages not increasing

But
-we still have low interest rates
-we are still creating jobs (last month was a blimp?)
-people seem to be eager to see the market go up / record low VIX
-earnings should increase


Its hard to say

 

[FelixDeCat]

Mortgage your house and SHORT!

Unfortunately my cardboard box under the bridge is mortgaged to the hilt!

It certainly is possible as there are definitely some major concerns.
-Record Corporate debt
-Record Student Loan debt
-Record stock margin debt
-Bitcoin bubble
-Record high stock prices - i.e. Tesla bubble
-Trump policies not getting through congress
-Wages not increasing

But
-we still have low interest rates
-we are still creating jobs (last month was a blimp?)
-people seem to be eager to see the market go up / record low VIX
-earnings should increase

Its hard to say

This bullet proof market seems to shake off everything, so even if we do get some selling it will most likely get bought (eventually).

 

[dullard]

This bullet proof market seems to shake off everything, so even if we do get some selling it will most likely get bought (eventually).

All market crashes occur FAR later and FAR faster than just about anyone predicts.

 

[JEDI]

All market crashes occur FAR later and FAR faster than just about anyone predicts.

is today the start of the crash?

 

[dullard]

is today the start of the crash?

My crystal ball is broken at the moment.

 

[FelixDeCat]

is today the start of the crash?

Everyone is expecting a market correction at some point, but a "crash" usually only happens when you have a great unwinding based on something that will take time to resolve like an internet tech bubble that went on for years based on unrealistic expectations or a real estate speculation bubble that ends in a tsunami of foreclosures, almost 500 bank failures and a global credit crises that culminates in a multi year recession.

 

[dullard]

Everyone is expecting a market correction at some point, but a "crash" usually only happens when you have a great unwinding based on something that will take time to resolve like an internet tech bubble that went on for years based on unrealistic expectations or a real estate speculation bubble that ends in a tsunami of foreclosures, almost 500 bank failures and a global credit crises that culminates in a multi year recession.

You are correct that some crashes happen like that. But, I wouldn't classify all crashes that way. Just thinking relatively recently, the crashes in 1987, 1989, and 1990 don't fit that description well. Neither does the flash crash of 2010.

Even if you do look at items that fit your list (such as the real estate bubble), it isn't a clean list either. For example, the stock market was already down 20% from its 2007 highs before Lehman brothers started the 2008 crash.

Bubbles that we have going on now: US stock market (up 3.7x in 8.5 years), farm land prices (surged with the oil surge which raises food prices and thus farm prices but farm land prices haven't fallen much yet to reflect the fall in oil/food prices), US commercial real estate (Amazon and online sales are making many retail stores struggle), and alternative currencies (although alternative currencies are so far too small to be of a major concern).

 

[FelixDeCat]

Back in September, the Kurds of northern Iraq held an independence vote and decided to form a new country. It was rejected by Iraq and its neighbors. This vote was spurned by the new power the Kurds enjoyed from oil fields taken by Kurdish Pershmerga forces during the invasion of ISIS a few years ago. As a result of the September vote, OIL broke through the $50's and held $52+. There was talk of $60 OIL.

Now that ISIS has mostly been driven out of Iraq, the Iraqi army sent a large military force to take back part of its oil field in the north and drove out 100,000 Kurds from the region. OIL has been in free fall and now is threatening to break down below $50.

 

[zinfamous]

Back in September, the Kurds of northern Iraq held an independence vote and decided to form a new country. It was rejected by Iraq and its neighbors. This vote was spurned by the new power the Kurds enjoyed from oil fields taken by Kurdish Pershmerga forces during the invasion of ISIS a few years ago. As a result of the September vote, OIL broke through the $50's and held $52+. There was talk of $60 OIL.

Now that ISIS has mostly been driven out of Iraq, the Iraqi army sent a large military force to take back part of its oil field in the north and drove out 100,000 Kurds from the region. OIL has been in free fall and now is threatening to break down below $50.

Dang, we need to start warring some more. Can't let those oil prices stay down!

 

[FelixDeCat]

Dang, we need to start warring some more. Can't let those oil prices stay down!

Lower oil prices help the economies of the world. And I love paying less than $4 a gallon for gas! I support lower prices. Unfortunately too many people are invested in higher prices so they always try to find ways to manipulate it upward. And I am short oil, so I say let it fall!

edit: The only advantage to expensive oil is the incentive it creates to MOVE AWAY from its use that hopefully results in a cleaner environment.

 

[zinfamous]

Lower oil prices help the economies of the world. And I love paying less than $4 a gallon for gas! I support lower prices. Unfortunately too many people are invested in higher prices so they always try to find ways to manipulate it upward. And I am short oil, so I say let it fall!

edit: The only advantage to expensive oil is the incentive it creates to MOVE AWAY from its use that hopefully results in a cleaner environment.

The problem is that I agree with all of your points here and I want it all to be true at once: cheap oil for stimulus/but expensive to incentivize the end of oil as an energy source. But I think we are finally starting to see that it doesn't necessarily have to be expensive anymore to encourage the flight away from oil, as alternatives are becoming cheaper and more efficient/effective--especially for residential applications. It will probably quite some time before you see large movement away in large commercial and industrial needs because they operate in "bulk energy need," which I assume is still very tough to beat with oil, and will remain the largest customer keeping oil afloat, but progress like this doesn't usually happen instantly, though we've been developing and implementing these new technologies for 4 or more decades anyway. (of course, go way way back for hydro)

 

[FelixDeCat]

Holy crap!

Chipotle takes a bath -15% (-$47.29 to $277)....

AMD gets chipped -13.50% (-$1.92 to $12.33)...

......AND.....DRYS goes for a sail +23% (+.94 TO $5)

I got in for a taste of DRYS, but sold too soon.

What happens next for all three?

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

Holy crap!

Chipotle takes a bath -15% (-$47.29 to $277)....

AMD gets chipped -13.50% (-$1.92 to $12.33)...

......AND.....DRYS goes for a sail +23% (+.94 TO $5)

I got in for a taste of DRYS, but sold too soon.

What happens next for all three?

I saw that... I am REALLY contemplating buying Chipotle, but every time I feel it has hit bottom it continues to go down little bit by bit. I was going to buy after the disease outbreaks, but I chickened out. Of course, I still just have all my funds in cash because I find it hard enough to rack up cash after maxing out retirement funds yearly.

What do you guys think?

 

[FelixDeCat]

I saw that... I am REALLY contemplating buying Chipotle, but every time I feel it has hit bottom it continues to go down little bit by bit. I was going to buy after the disease outbreaks, but I chickened out. Of course, I still just have all my funds in cash because I find it hard enough to rack up cash after maxing out retirement funds yearly.

What do you guys think?

CMG tends to bounce back after a good spanking, but I am skeptical of this dip. It might be worth waiting to see what happens next as far as direction.

As far as DRYS, I wonder if it might have more gas in the trade. According to this guy, its worth near $8 a share:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...otix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#4cd184946145

The risk is very high when a stock runs up that fast, but that is offset when I remember failing to buy DRYS at $7 last year then in a few days it hit $100!!!

I had 1000 shares at $4.50 and sold at $5, then the damn thing went to $5.59 moments later. Make no mistake, DRYS is still full of risk.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

CMG tends to bounce back after a good spanking, but I am skeptical of this dip. It might be worth waiting to see what happens next as far as direction.

As far as DRYS, I wonder if it might have more gas in the trade. According to this guy, its worth near $8 a share:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimcol...otix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#4cd184946145

The risk is very high when a stock runs up that fast, but that is offset when I remember failing to buy DRYS at $7 last year then in a few days it hit $100!!!

I had 1000 shares at $4.50 and sold at $5, then the damn thing went to $5.59 moments later. Make no mistake, DRYS is still full of risk.

That's the thing, this dip has dipped its own dip and continues to dip.

Be skeptical of this dip all you want, I think it still deserves a recovery from the last 3 dips.

 

[s0me0nesmind1]

By the way, if I'm about to officially open up an account and start trading... Anyone have recommendations for whom I should go with for a brokerage account? Personally I'm a bit skeptical of any that want to charge $7+ for a simple fucking trade.