***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

[turtile]

I just can't see the tariff system occurring. Before we had income taxes, tariffs took their place. This would hurt the low income and the middle class the most since they would be taxed more than anyone else. The poor spend a lot of money on electronics and adding a 25% tax is not good. A good example here is cell phones. Everyone needs one to communicate at this time and they are cheaper than a landline in most cases. There's no way huge corporations can move multi-million or even billion dollar production facilities to the US with a snap of a finger.

There's no country in the world that needs to purchase an American phone. So it would only hurt American business because there wouldn't be any money coming in.

And there are just not enough skilled/or not lazy people left in the US to take on these new jobs. Most low paying jobs that require some amount of skilled are filled by immigrant labor that are working as hard as they can to either support their family in the US or abroad. I've seen many outwork American workers over 2x. I can barely find Americans to work for me because they don't want to do physical labor.

China has an endless supply of labor(although there is poor attention to detail due to life in poor conditions). Labor is also near valueless since it's considered low class.

 

[dullard]

I just can't see the tariff system occurring.

If the tariffs occur, then we have short-term gain with long-term loss. If the tariffs don't occur, then companies will eventually realize that it was all bark and no bite and this recent run-up will vanish (again just a short-term stock boost).

I'm not too bullish, simply based on the fact that almost everything is priced so high at the moment. We went up too fast, too soon in November.

 

[Imp]

That being said, business moves in cycles. We have an administration that will do everything to make America even better and thus perhaps keep the stock markets growth upwards over the next four years (at least).

...

Also, since the market is long overdue for a 20% correction and the business cycle has not contracted in while, we do have things to worry about.

Last recession ended, officially, in June 2009. We are now over 7 years & 7 months into whatever cycle this is. Post-recession, the longest periods between recessions have been (Wiki) 8 years & 10 months in the '60s, 7 years & 8 months in the '80s, and 10 years in the '90s. Yellen isn't in a hurry. The Fed rate is lik 0.50% to 0.75% now, so effective rate is 0.63%?

But, I said this all last year and we're fine.

 

[Charmonium]

I've got some $10 leap calls on AMD that I feel pretty good about.

Also had some leap calls on IBM that expired today but I lost my shirt even though they closed in the money, technically. So Monday I'm going to be about $15k into my margin account to make about $50 on a $1300 trade. Woo hooooooo!

 

[Imp]

Want to go back into PFF and PSK. I'd be getting a 7% yield if I did. But it appears to go down with rising rates -- PFF's gone down from $40 to $38 in the past year.

 

[turtile]

If the tariffs occur, then we have short-term gain with long-term loss. If the tariffs don't occur, then companies will eventually realize that it was all bark and no bite and this recent run-up will vanish (again just a short-term stock boost).

I'm not too bullish, simply based on the fact that almost everything is priced so high at the moment. We went up too fast, too soon in November.

It would be an extremely short term gain! For example, if they tax flagship phones, they will cost over $800 with a 25% tax. It's likely that China will put a sales ban on American phone companies (Apple, Google etc.) which will hurt the economy. Even if they decide to make the phones in the US, they would still need to source chips from within the US which is likely to be difficult since they get them from Taiwan and South Korea. Global Foundries?

And again, who would work in these factories? Most people that work hard will already have a job. If the jobs pay well, they will be jobs that manage automation. Again, not going to help out 50+ year old Americans which have no skills in the area and will refuse or lack the ability to learn new skills.

Now, if the overseas money gets here, it will likely go right to shareholders.

 

[FelixDeCat]

I've got some $10 leap calls on AMD that I feel pretty good about.

Also had some leap calls on IBM that expired today but I lost my shirt even though they closed in the money, technically. So Monday I'm going to be about $15k into my margin account to make about $50 on a $1300 trade. Woo hooooooo!

I was in Walmart the other day and I could have sworn I heard a little girl say to her mother "buy AMD". So who knows.....your AMD calls might payoff with a nice earnings surprise. There is a very old saying "from the mouths of babes".

 

[FelixDeCat]

My strategy for next week -

Long 10 QQQ 123 weekly calls @ .87 = $870

Short 10 QQQ 122 weekly calls @ 1.49 = $1490

If the QQQ's finish the week under $122 (or near), the max profit = $620 by Friday ($1490-870).

If the QQQ's open down, I could make a small profit on the short, and let the $123 calls ride or stay short. The biggest unknown for next week is Google which reports on Thursday. It could make the QQQ's hit a high of $127 next week. I would have to cover the short ASAP. At QQQ $127 max profit would be $4000-870-(cover cost)= $3000 estimate.

 

[zinfamous]

I was in Walmart the other day and I could have sworn I heard a little girl say to her mother "buy AMD". So who knows.....your AMD calls might payoff with a nice earnings surprise. There is a very old saying "from the mouths of babes".

Ah yes, Jack Kennedy's comment about the shoeshine boy giving him stock tips.

No, FDK, you did not hear a little girl say that in Walmart.

 

[Charmonium]

I'm really optimistic about Ryzen for AMD. This will be their first multithreaded chip and they've had a long time to work on this so I'm expecting great things. They've also had some notable fiascos in recent years so I'm expecting that they have tested the bejezus out of this sucker and it is ready for prime time. And according to leaks/speculation that I've seen, it has a great thermal profile.

 

[bookem dano]

I recently added to my long position on AMD. For the most part I bought at around $2/share.
I'm excited about the new CPU lineup. I'm wondering about their GPU and if they'll get a bigger presence in the auto industry.
I'm not sure what to think about their licensing agreement from earlier in 2016, but it could have a large upside.

Google finance shows AMD +382.67 and NVDA +265.58 for 1/25/2016 - 1/20/2017.

Hopefully AMD has a few more tricks up its sleeve and makes some traction on prior hype.

Right now I'm up 1400% on my NVDA. If only I get the same on AMD I'd be happy. I've held NVDA since 08 when the market was around 8500. That was after I saw the market dip from 14k to that level. I just wish I had been adding to NVDA like I was with AMD.

 

[brianmanahan]

i sold AMD at about 2.50$

not that i had any significant amount of holdings, only about 100 shares

but still

 

[bookem dano]

MSN Money used to have articles called Stock Scouter. It had 10 best of each month to buy with ratings and reasoning for the ratings. I used it to buy a couple of stocks after looking into them a bit more. Boston Scientific was one the system brought to light for me. I bought in at 6.53 and I'm up 266% on it.

Did anyone else use this system? Have you found another alternative?

Here's an article I found on it.
http://blog.optionsamurai.com/stockscouter-gone-5-free-replacements/

I don't make a lot of trades. My style has shifted into more of an index fund, long strategy. I will pounce on some value investments and some blue chip stocks.
I've just funded my ROTH and need to figure out where to stash it.

The BSX purchase was one I made because I didn't have much left over from other trades but I didn't want the money just sitting there. I didn't feel like spending the commission for a single share so it was a little of a long shot that could pay off. I am looking for another sub $10 solid long shot.

Looking at google finance, I started in my ROTH 10/10/2008. Since then, my Roth is up 72.57% while the Dow is up 92%. Some of my current mutual funds from my 401K, had I been in them for the same time period are up more.

VFINX +88
VIMSX+116
VMVIX+112
NAESX+111
Sadly, my entry point in the above makes it far less lucrative than had I been in them from the start.

 

[JEDI]

I didn't feel like spending the commission for a single share so it was a little of a long shot that could pay off. I am looking for another sub $10 solid long shot.

if u want a long shot that can pay off big: nviv

HUGE or bankruptcy

 

[MomentsofSanity]

And the fun that is DRYS continues into the new year with another 1:8 reverse split. Volume today so far is 1.5X shares outstanding. How this company is still listed is beyond me.....

 

[SketchMaster]

Why people are still putting money into DRYS is perplexing to me... Watched a friend get his hand burned more than once trying to play it.

 

[Imp]

And the fun that is DRYS continues into the new year with another 1:8 reverse split. Volume today so far is 1.5X shares outstanding. How this company is still listed is beyond me.....

This is complete bullshit. So, I'm looking at the chart now: when it went insane in November, it hit about $100/share... Nope, now it's about $800. Since the crash, it's been in the ~$4 range. Nope, $20-$30 range. Now it's around $5.50, so last week, it would have been at like under a $1?

 

[dullard]

This is complete bullshit. So, I'm looking at the chart now: when it went insane in November, it hit about $100/share... Nope, now it's about $800. Since the crash, it's been in the ~$4 range. Nope, $20-$30 range. Now it's around $5.50, so last week, it would have been at like under a $1?

That is how stock splits work. It hit $1 on Friday, so it needed to split or be delisted. Everything you knew about the price is now off by a factor of 8. Thankfully most charts are automatically updated, so you don't need to do the math yourself.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

This is complete bullshit. So, I'm looking at the chart now: when it went insane in November, it hit about $100/share... Nope, now it's about $800. Since the crash, it's been in the ~$4 range. Nope, $20-$30 range. Now it's around $5.50, so last week, it would have been at like under a $1?

Those prices are split adjusted so it's relative. This is split, what, 4 or 5 in the last 12 months.

 

[dullard]

And again, who would work in these factories? Most people that work hard will already have a job. If the jobs pay well, they will be jobs that manage automation. Again, not going to help out 50+ year old Americans which have no skills in the area and will refuse or lack the ability to learn new skills.

Foxconn is considering moving one part of their processing here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/22/business/foxconn-might-build-plant-in-us.html?_r=0

But of course, they will only do so if they get enough tax breaks and free investments (such as roads/utilities/buildings) from the government to essentially operate for free.

 

[Imp]

Those prices are split adjusted so it's relative. This is split, what, 4 or 5 in the last 12 months.

Yep. It should be a penny stock -- in reality, it is, even if the price doesn't reflect it.

 

[turtile]

Foxconn is considering moving one part of their processing here.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/22/business/foxconn-might-build-plant-in-us.html?_r=0

But of course, they will only do so if they get enough tax breaks and free investments (such as roads/utilities/buildings) from the government to essentially operate for free.

It makes sense to build large/heavy products in the US. I'm assuming most of these jobs will have little to do with the production itself and more with construction/infrastructure. And how many people do you think will need to be brought in from another country...

 

[FelixDeCat]

QQQ $125 ty Lord! Covered short call early, long $123.5 calls, short put spread $122 up to $124.

 

[repoman0]

It of course is anyone's guess. But in last year's thread I predicted that the market would peak in December and the DOW won't go above 20k and the S&P won't go above 2300 for the short term. I've also decided to somewhat put my money where my mouth is and all new 401k contributions are going to a stable value fund (~2.5% return at the moment) until the market starts moving again in either direction. I'd be quite glad to be wrong with my prediction as I'd rather have my money doing something other than return the rate of inflation.

This is what I settled on too ... 50% of my new contributions are going to the "tiaa traditional" fund, which has a floor of 4% on one variant and 3.25% on the other (one has withdrawal/sell stipulations and the other is totally free). For whatever reason I have multiple types of accounts with TIAA and the two types offer the two different variants of the guaranteed return fund.

I decided to keep putting 25% each into the total US market and total international market funds.

My current portfolio is around 66% US total market, 21% international total market, and 13% total bond market ... I really want to ditch the bonds since they seem pretty useless at the moment. At the least I can move the bonds in my one account to the "stipulation free" tiaa traditional, but not sure what to do with the others.

 

[Imp]

Wooooooooooohoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!

Dow made it past 20,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

BBQ!

The Shiller CAPE is now approaching 29. If we get to 33, it'll have kicked the 1929 peak in the ass!