***Official*** 2017 Stock Market Thread

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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
No Fed rate hike today, no one was expecting one. Guess we'll do what we did last year and bet on the next month and the next month and they'll hike it once in December to save face. Woohoo, 1% effective rate by 2018!
 

zinfamous

No Lifer
Jul 12, 2006
110,806
29,557
146
Posted 1/21/17..


If you ever get a hot stock tip from a kid at Walmart....BUY!!!



I was in at 4.75, so I'm OK. ...wish I was brianmanahan, though, as I would have had, nearly 4x shares or so (but I still would have held)
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
Bought some Under Armour today. Stock got killed yesterday after poor earnings and everyone downgraded and jumped ship. I like the company and its products. I think the company works through its current struggles and the international expansion will pay big dividend for the company in the future. Stock is heavily shorted so that's even better.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
If you ever get a hot stock tip from a kid at Walmart....BUY!!!
You know those IBM calls I mentioned? Well, I sold the stock right away but if I'd held on to it for just a couple of days, it went up by $8/share. D'oh!

No Fed rate hike today, no one was expecting one. Guess we'll do what we did last year and bet on the next month and the next month and they'll hike it once in December to save face. Woohoo, 1% effective rate by 2018!
I heard that March is probably off the table as well. Most likely June and then Fall. Just two hikes this year.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I heard that March is probably off the table as well. Most likely June and then Fall. Just two hikes this year.

Meh, I got my hopes up last year that Yellen would actually hike a few times. Shame on me. One at best probably. Cut seems more than possible if Trump does something crazy -- he's allegedly threatened to invade Mexico, allegedly hung up on Australia's prime minister, and China's expecting a war.

Dollar index (DXY) is already down below 100 points from a high of ~103.
 
Reactions: Charmonium

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,401
386
126
Bought some Under Armour today. Stock got killed yesterday after poor earnings and everyone downgraded and jumped ship. I like the company and its products. I think the company works through its current struggles and the international expansion will pay big dividend for the company in the future. Stock is heavily shorted so that's even better.

I have been looking at UA for a while. They have good growth and a growing brand. The big issues I have with UA are the shareholder shenanigans Kevin Plank is playing with shares. He has converted most to non-voting shares which means the company will never be a buyout candidate and he can do whatever he wants.

Second they are borrowing money to spend it on huge expensive endorsement deals with colleges and athletes. This is necessary in this business however they are outbidding Nike and Adidas who have more cash than they do. These issues keep me on the sidelines.
 

ponyo

Lifer
Feb 14, 2002
19,689
2,811
126
I have been looking at UA for a while. They have good growth and a growing brand. The big issues I have with UA are the shareholder shenanigans Kevin Plank is playing with shares. He has converted most to non-voting shares which means the company will never be a buyout candidate and he can do whatever he wants.

Second they are borrowing money to spend it on huge expensive endorsement deals with colleges and athletes. This is necessary in this business however they are outbidding Nike and Adidas who have more cash than they do. These issues keep me on the sidelines.

Those are valid points. I was initially confused with UA and UAA symbols. I had to google to see the difference. UAA are voting shares but Plank controls the company through B voting shares so the voting rights on UAA shares are meaningless. So I still don't understand why UAA trades at a premium to UA when voting rights mean nothing as long as Plank has his B shares.
 

Uppsala9496

Diamond Member
Nov 2, 2001
5,272
19
81
MSN Money used to have articles called Stock Scouter. It had 10 best of each month to buy with ratings and reasoning for the ratings. I used it to buy a couple of stocks after looking into them a bit more. Boston Scientific was one the system brought to light for me. I bought in at 6.53 and I'm up 266% on it.

Did anyone else use this system? Have you found another alternative?

Here's an article I found on it.
http://blog.optionsamurai.com/stockscouter-gone-5-free-replacements/

I don't make a lot of trades. My style has shifted into more of an index fund, long strategy. I will pounce on some value investments and some blue chip stocks.
I've just funded my ROTH and need to figure out where to stash it.

The BSX purchase was one I made because I didn't have much left over from other trades but I didn't want the money just sitting there. I didn't feel like spending the commission for a single share so it was a little of a long shot that could pay off. I am looking for another sub $10 solid long shot.

Looking at google finance, I started in my ROTH 10/10/2008. Since then, my Roth is up 72.57% while the Dow is up 92%. Some of my current mutual funds from my 401K, had I been in them for the same time period are up more.

VFINX +88
VIMSX+116
VMVIX+112
NAESX+111
Sadly, my entry point in the above makes it far less lucrative than had I been in them from the start.

I'm still waiting on making my ROTH contribution for the year. Just have a feeling there will be a pretty big dip at some point. Money is patiently sitting in Vanguard's money market account.
 

Charmonium

Diamond Member
May 15, 2015
9,564
2,939
136
With Trump, you might want to start thinking about gold. If the dollar continues to drop, gold is guaranteed to rise and Cheeto Anti-christ doesn't seem capable of doing or saying anything that will support the economy or the dollar.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^I've been thinking about gold before Mr. Frito-Lays. Still not comfortable buying that stuff because it's still priced for apocalypse-lite.

I still have more confidence in the USD than the CAD. America First should result in "Fuck you, Canada and Mexico."
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
Facebook was so funny....goes down after "blowout" earnings. All those call buyers got the shaft and put buyers actually got their money back (at least). Thing is, it ran up too far, too fast and it sold off despite earnings. Apple also pulled back from $130 to $128.

NOW Amazon misses sales growth and falls from $840 to $803 after hours.

We are way overdue for a pullback in the markets.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^Shut up, bro. Markets only go up.

And Snapchat is apparently going public. Do they make money? Does it matter?

Edit: And yay, "great" job numbers. But Yellen still won't raise the rate, gotta keep that unprecedented ~9 years Fed rate under 1% going.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
I'm shorting puts on the Nasdaq. Hoping for a floor of $126 next Friday on the QQQs.

ALSO...

I have a very tiny position in Chesapeake. I think oil may soon go as high as $58 a barrel. I wonder if the market will start to speculate that the war of words between Trump and Iran results in Iranian oil being taken back off world markets via new sanctions.
 
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Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I have doubts about new U.S. sanctions impacting oil supplies from Iran. The nuclear deal last year involved the U.S., Russia, China, and France/Germany. There was already talk before the deal that if the U.S. didn't sign on, many of the other countries would not keep sanctions going.

Guess they can send a carrier group to the Gulf.
 

Mai72

Lifer
Sep 12, 2012
11,578
1,741
126
I read an article that basically said the stock market could hit 30k by 2025. There image variables of course, like if we go to war, if we have a trade war w/ Mexico and China. So, much of it depends on the Trump policies. Which makes the Dow Jones hitting 30k unlikely. You never know though.

It's an exciting time to play I guess. Trump being the wild card.
 

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
3,664
111
106
I have doubts about new U.S. sanctions impacting oil supplies from Iran. The nuclear deal last year involved the U.S., Russia, China, and France/Germany. There was already talk before the deal that if the U.S. didn't sign on, many of the other countries would not keep sanctions going.

Guess they can send a carrier group to the Gulf.

pretty sure US didn't import much oil from Iran before the sanctions
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
I read an article that basically said the stock market could hit 30k by 2025. There image variables of course, like if we go to war, if we have a trade war w/ Mexico and China. So, much of it depends on the Trump policies. Which makes the Dow Jones hitting 30k unlikely. You never know though.

If it hits 30k by 2025, there would likely not be a major pull-back or recession where markets are falling, making up lost ground, or just stagnant for a few years. Last recession ended back in 2009 so that'd be 16 years without a recession -- we're approaching 8. Longest period without recession was around 10 years in the 1990s. Then again, we have central banks buying stocks, pumping out QE, and keeping interest rates near zero.
 

Imp

Lifer
Feb 8, 2000
18,829
184
106
^You made me double-check: I really thought the ECB got in on it already since they followed Japan into negative rates. So, it's just Japan right now from what I can tell.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-stocks-boj-idUSKCN10X29O?il=0

On the other hand, the central banks know that QE and low interest rates are being used to help buy back shares. If you facilitate an activity, does that make you an active participant...

Edit: Woops, missed one. Swiss National Bank in on the stock buying too.

http://www.reuters.com/article/swiss-snb-stocks-idUSL8N1B7383
 
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Reactions: Charmonium

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
pretty sure US didn't import much oil from Iran before the sanctions

Well, that's not necessarily the point I was making. My suggestion was that speculators like to speculate, especially those trading oil. Back before Obama joined other countries to ease sanctions on Iran, their oil was officially blocked from world markets (those countries that sanctioned Iran for nuclear development over the last 20 years). Therefore their oil infrastructure was very poor, outdated and in desperate need of expansion, upgrades and repair as they could only sell "under the table" to people who risked being financially blacklisted by most countries for buying their oil. This explains why Iran did not join other nations in limiting supply starting in January, so they could upgrade their infrastructure.

Now Iran decides to stick the middle finger to Trump and test fired a ballistic missile in defiance of agreements on 1/30/17. If they keep pushing Trump's buttons, you can bet we will push hard to take Iranian oil back off world markets.

Just me speculating tho.
 
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FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
This could be good... New mine opening in my city, stock is about 0.17 right now. Think I'm going to invest.

http://www.timminspress.com/2017/02/03/work-progressing-on-timmins-next-new-mine

http://finance.yahoo.com/quote/gwa.v?ltr=1

Bless your heart. Canadian mining penny stocks have been the butt of jokes going back to the 1950's. But you never know, this time it could be for real!

https://www.google.com/search?q=Can...ws_rd=ssl#q=Canadian+mining+penny+stock+scams
 

Red Squirrel

No Lifer
May 24, 2003
67,898
12,365
126
www.anyf.ca
Yeah it's kind of a risk to take, the mine could easily go under in a year due to some major issue or not finding enough mineral etc. But at that price it's not a huge deal to throw a couple hundred bucks at it and see what happens in the future. If they go up to even just a dollar that's a pretty big haul.

The major mines here are actually starting to run into issues where they're so deep it takes long to get the miners down and back up, so not much time for actual work. Suppose they will need to spread out more instead of going so deep. But it all goes by where the gold actually is.



CN tower for scale.
 

Udgnim

Diamond Member
Apr 16, 2008
3,664
111
106
Well, that's not necessarily the point I was making. My suggestion was that speculators like to speculate, especially those trading oil. Back before Obama joined other countries to ease sanctions on Iran, their oil was officially blocked from world markets (those countries that sanctioned Iran for nuclear development over the last 20 years). Therefore their oil infrastructure was very poor, outdated and in desperate need of expansion, upgrades and repair as they could only sell "under the table" to people who risked being financially blacklisted by most countries for buying their oil. This explains why Iran did not join other nations in limiting supply starting in January, so they could upgrade their infrastructure.

Now Iran decides to stick the middle finger to Trump and test fired a ballistic missile in defiance of agreements on 1/30/17. If they keep pushing Trump's buttons, you can bet we will push hard to take Iranian oil back off world markets.

Just me speculating tho.

with the way Trump is handling diplomacy with countries outside of Russia, Trump won't find many countries willing to enforce sanctions with him
 

FelixDeCat

Lifer
Aug 4, 2000
29,299
2,097
126
with the way Trump is handling diplomacy with countries outside of Russia, Trump won't find many countries willing to enforce sanctions with him

Cooperation is a two way street. There are many countries that do not want to see a nuclear Iran. Common sense should tell us if they get a bomb, nobody is safe.
 
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